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Thoro-Graph
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You beat me by seconds as I tried to correct my mistake. Thanks for taking it easy on me though!
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Tanma Corporation appears to be very new to thoroughbred racing and so naturally would defer to Baffert. They have had mostly jumping horses and a few good ones at that including a champion.
It appears Baffert wants Bayern in at all costs. With Chitu and MH out -- so much the better as for getting him in. Owners have the final call but hard to go against an experienced trainer especially if t
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With the Boston Marathon next Monday and the KY Derby the following week, there will be a lot of Boston money placed on Wicked Strong. Handicapping aside a nice story if he pulls it off.
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There has been a little discussion regarding the difficulty (some would say futility) of betting the futures for the KY Derby. According to Haskin, only 2 of the initial 23 horses in the 1st futures bet from November remain as qualified for the KY Derby -- Cairo Prince and Ride on Curlin. Pretty amazing stat. All of course at that time were 2 year olds who have sadly fallen off the trail. Would m
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Tavasco,
Your initial posting welcomed any inside information or rumor which I don't have.
My comment regarding your #3 comment just had to do with my belief that owners in a race such as the KY Derby are rightfully out for themselves and not running as a team event. I have to imagine Chitu's owner wants to win the race as does Hoppertunity's owner and Midnight Hawk's ow
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I don't agree with your last statement in #3. Chitu is owned by Tanma Corporation. Hoppertunity is owned by Pegram and friends. Midnight Hawk is also owned in part by Pegram. I would bet Tanma Corporation has absolutely no interest in setting up anything for Pegram. Why would they? Maybe, his other horse and owner (MH) wouldn't mind though.
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My opinion from 25 years of horse ownership -- vets are the only race track entity that are guaranteed to make a profit from the sport of kings. Owners are definitely not. Trainers, Jockeys, Agents (Bloodstock and Jockey), Breeders, Pin Hookers, Race Track Operators, Bettors, Publications, etc. -- No.
Used to be you could expect a monthly bill for training and vet service to be around $3,000 p
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I believe just announced today. Flying a bit under the radar?
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TMW
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Funny. I live in California and was thinking exactly the same thing.
You will be tested again next Sunday (don't know you but bet you will toss a few down even though NY will be down again for Easter).
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TMW
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When is the seminar this year (on-line)? Will it include the Oaks?
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TMW
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I find your shipping experience comment interesting. Art Sherman is a very experienced trainer having had over 12,000 starters and over 2,000 wins. However, his career average earnings per start statistic is only $3,060.
Most of his wins have been in Northern California. Recently, he has had a string of horses in Southern California where he now lives.
As for shipping experience, I don
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He is a very nice horse. Bloom is off the rose though. The owner needs to build back desired value with a Grade 1 win. I am guessing at a mile. He paid $60,000 for him. He is still worth a lot more than that but nothing approaching $15 million or $8 Million or anything in the millions unless he wins Grade 1's and he may just do that. Only third race and he was third in a Grade 1.
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According to Beyer, you are correct. Sanchez, the owner, insisted he keep a share in the horse (I am guessing 25%) and have Manny Azpurua continue the training. Oh, I almost forgot, the price for Social Inclusion was not $8 million but $15 million!
Now, he has turned down any offers until after the results of the Wood. I am a west coast guy and unfamiliar with Aqueduct but I hope there are no
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I just read the owners of California Chrome turned down $6 million.
I am not sure how the SA Derby sets him up for a peak performance for the KY Derby but I have to admit the SA Derby being such a big race for west coast owners/trainer and his obvious liking for the track surface would be a tough one to pass. The alternative would be to pass this race and peak for the KY Derby (maybe the smar
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That is why if the owner of Social Inclusion really was offered $8 million for 75% (still seems absolutely crazy that someone would offer that deal AND even crazier that the owner would turn it down) he should have taken the deal. He would be maximizing the value of the asset to the Nth degree while at the same time able to enjoy derby fever. (Seems like a dream situation to me).
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Of course, the key is what has their value proven to be? None of them frankly $8 million plus. Pioneer of the Nile is off to a great start as a stallion. He was very good. Babies are dong very well. Maybe will be an important sire. Absolutely not proven yet in my opinion.
Good luck in your decisions regarding your very good horses!
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I guess your math is correct but I have never seen a model with 150 mares for 3 years as an example of a stallion's value. I have had a few stallions and my model is much more conservative especially for an unproven stallion's sire. I have not had a really good horse for a while so possibly the model has changed.
Even though the babies won't run until they are 2 they still will
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Boy, Jim I don't agree.
The last 5 stallions who won the Wood stand for between $10,000-$17,500. No way you can get to $8 million as a stallion prospect with a Wood win alone. Not even close. Social Inclusion's breeding is unproven at the moment. Pioneer of the Nile may turn out to be great (I hope so as I just purchased a 2 year old colt POTN out of an AP Indy mare) but still he is
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Subscribing to the "I don't think the derby winner has had his final prep yet" maybe a horse named Schoolofhardrocks will enter the picture this weekend. Lots of reasons to throw "rocks" at him. First or second and he will be in. I can't play favorites this year...
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I don't know Keeneland well but I know Del Mar very well (speaking of Art Sherman and CA Chrome, my box is next to his -- good guy). When DM gets a BC invitation, and they will, because of a traffic nightmare of unbelievable proportions I will arrive by kayak -- leave it on the beach and walk. Will have lunch at the Brig on the way to the track (only kind of kidding).
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This all sounds like what Del Mar is doing now. New enlarged turf course. New dirt course. Not sure about the lighting. No ample parking on site -- lots of nearby parking on a large polo field -- shuttles required. Terrible traffic and lack of hotel rooms for an event of this magnitude -- however, San Diego is close. As Richiebee implies regarding the Keeneland folks, the Del Mar folks are smart
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I just read in the Lexington paper that track management would like Keeneland to be considered as BC host as early as next year. They would have to install dirt and track lighting (for NBC prime time live viewing) to be seriously considered. They would like to tie the BC extravaganza with the November Keeneland sale.
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That is actually a fair question. To quote a noted mathematician in USA Today --
"The 1 in 9.2 quintillion number is straight mathematics. It figures out how many possible ways the 63 game results on your bracket could be filled out. (Two to the sixty-third power.)
But it doesn't account for standard basketball logic, like No. 1 seeds always advancing in the first round or tour
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Speaking of dumb future bets (I have MexiKoma at 100-1) Buffett is offering $1 billion to anyone who plays a perfect March Madness Bracket. Hard not to fill one out (even though it is probably a way for his Quicken Loans to access your email address) but the odds are 1 in 9.2 quintillion to have a perfect bracket.
A quintillion is a 1 with 18 zeros following it.
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Kaleem Shah is having a tough go of it in horse racing with Baffert as his trainer. Three of Baffert's sudden deaths were owned by Shah. Also, his horse, Tweebster, was euthanized after breaking down in a cheap claimer. And, now this.
As you say, tough game to own horses (and to make KY Derby future bets).
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I believe Nakatani is closer to 116 than you think. Not sure wise to book it.
For instance, he made 118 the other day at SA.
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Whenever multiple horses on a single race day stretch out and go wire-to-wire -- no matter what their odds are, bias comments will be made. I happen to subscribe to a bias as the times were too fast including a track record by a horse coming off of a long layoff.
Closers like MexiKoma (running against what I perceive was a bias) were impressive to me (as were the winners).
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