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Thoro-Graph
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I like Daring Duchess a bit. How many graded races has Mike Maker won with similar runners such as this one? Claim the horse from a respected barn, move up the ladder, win or place in top stakes races: Papaw Bodie, Furthest Land, Al's Gal, Da Big Hoss, Oscar Nominated.
Here's another one. Claimed Daring Duchess from the Mott barn (like Oscar Nominated) and immediately broke through a
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Agastache
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Just doing some research in the ROTW archives, it looks like Celestine's best would at least make Tepin supporters sweat a bit more than normal. I realize Tepin is something special, but thinking Celestine grabs the rail immediately forcing Tepin into at least a 2w2w. Maybe that's enough to even this race out?
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That game is dirty. Willing to bet that they rolled the dice and tried to run the bid up on a potential buyer after advertising that the reserve was a million or so. You think racing is dirty? Breeding and selling is even worse.
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Seems like there have been quite a few household names in the past 6 years or so, spanning the likes of Rachel, Zenyatta, Wise Dan, Goldikova, Songbird, Chrome, Beholder, Pharoah, etc.
Any chance this relates to the ban of race day steroids around 2008? Stricter drug testing? Or a smaller foal crop? All 3? Or none of the 3?
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Just curious, was the horse in question a short price or a longshot (without giving away the exact odds)? Also, was it a big field or a small field?
The Churchill race had 7 horses and the Ellis race had 6. Easier to cover the potential combos in those types of races than a big field.
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Recently, a probe was opened up here in Kentucky concerning a ride by Jesus Castanon aboard Tizthedream in the 4th race at Ellis Park on July 2nd. (I believe that's opening day.) Castanon was aboard the prohibitive favorite and raced last and wide throughout the race. As the horse looked like he was going to rally into a trifecta/super position potentially, Castanon took him up abruptly an
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I think what I find impressive about this particular stat is that out of 146 starters for Casse, 103 of them were 3-1 or less. Definitely not under the radar.
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Appreciate the response. To be honest, I had not even processed what SBN's potential odds might be at post. You are correct, at 5-1, he is not a good play considering his penchant for firing way too late.
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I recall on this board after Derby some chatter about Suddenbreakingnews being in a different path than what TG had originally stated on the far turn. I cannot tell from the pan view and I have not been able to find a head on yet. Perhaps, it was an NBC overhead view that pointed this out.
Has this been reviewed?
The reason I ask is that it SBN appears to staring at a potential 0-2-X patt
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Agastache
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Jennie Rees says Indiana Derby is next for The Player.
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Agastache
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Maybe the inside isn't necessarily the place to be at Pimlico today.
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I was just curious for the methodology and reasoning behind the assignment of figs for these two winners on Derby day:
Horse, Time, Path, Figure, weight
Catalina Red, 1:20.79, 4w, -2.25, 118
Taris, 1:21.03 3w, -3.75, 120
Is this a matter of making the races make sense? Or are there other variables that I'm not taking into account as to why Taris' number is better than Cata
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Agastache
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I think you'll see Mor Spirit no more than 4-5 lengths off the lead down the backstretch, barring trouble and a ridiculous pace. I think the key is whether or not they can get his rally started earlier than the 1/8 pole this time.
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You're probably way ahead of me, but here is a link to Derby/Oaks probables:
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Carina Mia is a daughter of Malibu Moon from a mare that produced Grade 1 winner Miss Match. Miss Match won the 9 furlong Santa Margarita and was a salty foe in Argentina.
She stamped herself as a potential superstar with a crushing victory in a maiden at Keeneland over Breeders Cup weekend. A victory that earned her a top ThoroGraph fig. She followed that up with a Golden Rod Stakes win ove
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On the Kentucky circuit: I nominate Corey Lanerie and Joe Johnson.
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Memory doesn't all serve me well, but Asmussen's entry reminds me a bit of Nehro, who was underwhelming in several starts before waking up at Oaklawn and becoming a factor on the Derby trail and the Derby itself. Bears watching.
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Uncle Mo has some stamina influences on the dam side of the pedigree. Grandsire Arch won the Super Derby at 10 furlongs. Arch's sire Kris S sired an Epsom Derby winner, I believe (Kris Kin?)
Dixieland Band also on the dam side (son of Northern Dancer) as well. That one is the damsire of 2 Ky Derby winners- Monarchos and Street Sense.
I wouldn't dismiss Uncle Mo as a classic sire j
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For what it's worth, a representative of the pool (name escapes me) said they contacted Larry Rivelli and he said Cocked and Loaded is nearing a work and is being pointed to a stakes at Tampa (assume the Tampa Bay Derby).
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Something to consider:
Borell disputes McIngvale's claims that she was a private trainer on salary only. But, if this was the case, she should have been billing the owner monthly including the 10% of purse money from Runhappy's very first race. If she was not billing the owner monthly from the start and was being paid a straight salary, I'm not sue how a judge can rule in her f
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FYI, it rained here in central Kentucky all night long. I know the Kee turf course drains well, but I've seen TGJB give out dead rail designations on the grass course before. I'd say its something to keep an eye on going forward to at least Friday. As of right now, it's still drizzling.
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But which one is most likely to lose?
Liam's Map fans will most certainly be holding their breath at the draw. Drawing post 10 or wider will be cause for concern.
Songbird also must avoid a wide post and will face fillies that have he capability of improving rapidly- Rachel's baby and Tap To It (especially with the near 2 month break between starts)
Golden Horn has had a long s
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Thanks for posting this as I totally whiffed on my Keeneland plays today. Failed to recognize that Sarah Sis had a 2 year old top that would be competitive in the Raven Run yesterday. My ignorance cost me a nice pick 4.
I ripped off your suggested plays and it made a bad day a bit more bearable.
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To update your list- Jack Milton has been retired and will be offered up for auction after the Breeders' Cup.
Also, TAP would have had a top 3 contender in the Sprint with Rock Fall, until his unfortunate demise last week. And certainly Rock Fall will be considered posthumously for year end champion sprinter honors.
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I can vouch for both Blue Door and Malone's.
Blue Door is a hole in the wall that serves outstanding brisket and potato salad, as well as other items. Not much seating, so it might be one of those deals where you wait in line and take back to the hotel room to eat. I highly recommend. You also need to call ahead for the hours as they tend to shut down when they run out of food.
Malone
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I read that this is the 3rd catastrophic breakdown on the dirt track since the meet began, including Shore Runner. Not a trend yet, but bears watching.
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I'm not a raggie. Been trying to soak up as much from the ThoroGraph-ers from the start. My apologies for my assumption of the 42 day rule.
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