Rob, Exaggerator's San Felipe would concern me if he was my top choice, never should have blown second,a bit more than just saying he got wired. As for his big run in the SA Derby, seen far too many explosive slop winners that are not repeated on a dry surface,though that applies more to run off the screen speed horses. Mikeby miff - Ask the Experts
Are Exaggerator fans concerned that he has been beaten 3 times by Nyquist, twice by Brody's Cause and traded decisions with Mor Spirit and Danzig Candy. ...... and only at like 9/2, with a few of 10-20-1shots with a punchers chance?by miff - Ask the Experts
Roughly worked the same pre SA Derby big winby miff - Ask the Experts
Mohaymen and SBN reportedly turned 3 just today.by miff - Ask the Experts
They tied the Wood to the filly race same distance, raw times very close.by miff - Ask the Experts
Chad, The Wood was a tough race, know Beyer took some creative license as perhaps did TGJB.Slow maiden finishing second a legit question but the vicious early pace was also. There are always a few figs open for debate from the top guys, but Rags has way too many completely out there,alone on an island. Mikeby miff - Ask the Experts
Chad, The way Rags makes figs,can see it but neither fig is close to being reflective of Outwork's performances or the dynamics of either race. Both figs are not even close to reconciling with the other credible fig makers or the adjusted clock/pace adj,way too slow. If you believe RAGS, the Wood was won with like a TG 7 and an adjusted Beyer of like 85.....hard to swallow, notwithstanby miff - Ask the Experts
Depends on your personal take but Mar 5th is poster child for "giant inside/speed bias. Can't draw any other conclusion watching the races and replays.by miff - Ask the Experts
Hi Frank, Using all the March 5th runners against the insane sp/rail but not cashing, hopefully one will break thru. Mikeby miff - Ask the Experts
It is nearly impossible for a horse to get a big fig on Rags without sustaining substantial ground loss....BRILLIANT!by miff - Ask the Experts
Outwork was drilling everything in the AM at PBD when JV/Angel C decided to ride big/strong/fast colt Outwork instead of Destin, was their choice.by miff - Ask the Experts
TAP tried derby with the smallish Circular Quay off long layoff. Destin owner a Kool Aid drinker(owns Rags) and was worried about big top.His work today was not great, pushed on a little late. Outwork was the buzz worker at CD.by miff - Ask the Experts
Have not seen any credible speed figs where Gun Runner is not slowwwww.Brisnet had him fastest of preps.....absurd!by miff - Ask the Experts
Only the meanest of people would pick on Nyquist comparing him to a somewhat unheralded 3yr old monster,Smarty Jonesby miff - Ask the Experts
JB, Actually you know that a sharp left or right angle move is ground loss,even on straightaway. Read that 6 undefeated Derby horses have gone 3-0-2 so far, Nyquist the 7th to try.No idea who they were or if they were fast or slow going in.by miff - Ask the Experts
Would take over 5-2 all day.Not nearly enough Nyquist buzz, in fact, none at all.Everybody,so to speak, hates him.by miff - Ask the Experts
Watch Derby and Oaks horses train: kentuckyderby.com/workouts/liveby miff - Ask the Experts
If the run off in the slop was an aberration for Danzig Candy, no one is getting over/past him so easy.With a clean break think DC controls front end with an honest pace.by miff - Ask the Experts
Re Nyquist,love him or hate him. Even in training,at CD and Cali he cocks his head to the right coming by the grandstand, that's just him.He also has never let a horse get by him in the am or in a race when hooked. Dont love him at all but he is almost certain to use his tactical edge to be in a good ground saving position which cannot be said for about 16 others.by miff - Ask the Experts
JB, Think the Ashland clearly opens the discussions of CS's ability to get two turns and 9f as fast as she was able to do going one turn up to mile.Not saying conclusively she won't but certainly have a lean against based on that very ordinary performance for her.She had a perfect set up and failed. Mikeby miff - Ask the Experts
Rob, Yikes,go back and look at the charts. With the exception of a layover 3-5 shot in race 2, speed was nfg all day.I have Loaban as a play, in the right spot, off a brave try against that track. Also like Rachel V and Carina M off that day.Cat Sophia may have stepped on her breeding/conformation for two turns going 9f.Oaks a Grade 1,huge for broodmare value so why not try. Mikeby miff - Ask the Experts
Hi Frank, Need your expertise on Derby Day weather, loons already predicting rain, which would be a huge factor. If wet. Did Mohaymen hate slop so much, you must toss? Did Exaggerator love it so much he's a stand alone? Did Shagaf hate slop also, must toss? Did Mor Spirit slide all over as Stevens said,toss? Mikeby miff - Ask the Experts
Cat Sophia may not be fastest at 9f if the Ashland is an indicator.Still have to consider why CS was rather quickly taken off Oaks trail pre Songbird defection. Carina Mia just worked 5f in 58.63 at CD for Oaks.by miff - Ask the Experts
Rob, From an Oaks/Derby double standpoint, the defection of Songbird a plus(prefer she was ok though)Not a horizontal fan too much but even that is a better gamble now with Songbird out. Lewis Dinner has always been a bit ratty but she will stay well,not impossible I n this field. Agree with Land and Sea.Rachel Valentina totally one to beat off Ashland imo especially if Carina doesn'tby miff - Ask the Experts
Rob, Cat Sophia had no excuse off a perfect trip and set up in the Ashland,doubtful she is a two turn 9f filly. The fact that she was out of the Oaks until Songbird got sick,not a sign of confidence by connections.Why would she beat Rachel's Valentina next out or even Carina Mia, now with a prep? Mikeby miff - Ask the Experts
Bluegrass was another pace melt with the first three finishers far back early on a track biased to closers. Would be careful taking anyone out of there given the way that race set up.by miff - Ask the Experts
No consolation but fairly often a jockey will be fined/and or get days even when the stewards don't make a dq.All steward rulings are posted on NYRA website.by miff - Ask the Experts
Rob, I posted the stewards explanation. NYRA Stewards,correctly imo, do not want to make anything resembling a marginal DQ. Of course, that gets us into subjective territory. Critics of stewards are generally poorly opinionated, there will always be close calls which can be seen the other way. NY stewards are not taking down no contact herders/seam closers unless the horses are head bobbingby miff - Ask the Experts
Stewards inquiry and jockeys objection the #3 Yakov (Irad Ortiz Jr) drifts out inside the 3/16th pole while the #7 Clifton Pleasure (Manuel Franco)is running up and has to take up briefly and goes on to finish second. After reviewing the video and speaking to the riders involved in the judgment of the stewards this drift didn’t alter the finish of the race the race is official as is. 3-7-8-6 Wby miff - Ask the Experts