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Thoro-Graph
Simple if he runs back as fast, that's far from a certainty.
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miff
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Beyer of 96 for Unified(had fastest TG fig of any 3yr old) thought he was life and death late off perfect trip stalking a 70-1 maiden.May not be a router or two turn type.Doubtful for Belmont, next start may be his acid test.
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miff
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Joe
Guillot lives in alternate universe,would take that with a grain of salt.
Mike
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miff
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Preakness adds speed with Loaban,Uncle Lino, Stradiveri, Collected...... More interesting early race shape than derby,on paper.
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miff
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Frank D,
Leg 1 (race 6) featured a Kiaran firster, half to Frosted that was way overweight in the pool.Kiaran crew all in,loved the horse yesterday.
In the last leg, a put over the 5,trained at Tampa, was bombed in the win pool from the start but was like 20-1 in the pick 4.
A case where a huge overweight losing and a huge underweight winning in the sequence.To a lesser extent Elysea, 4.
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miff
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There are a few pictures which show excessive amounts of dirt/mud stuck to the chest of all the horses except those up front. Shots of standing puddles just before derby also noticed. Track easily could be considered heavily moist for derby.
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miff
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Took a standback look at CD results. Interesting,while the rail did not seem dead, posts 1,2,3 went only 1-39.
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miff
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What "premise"? It's evident to any close follower that too fast early equals slower late,99% of the time.First half 45+ last half app 51.
The derby pace was rated fastest in twelve years,adjusted for track speed of course.
On speed figs Gun Runner faster than Moyhaymen and SBN after pace adjustment,not that close either.
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miff
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Moose,
It's all about methodology.Its outside of many years of tracking this stuff that I can accept an adjustment for traveling extra distance but not for running an extremely fast pace splits,when applicable.That defies the basics of racing.
Mike
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miff
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Moose,
Don't need to see the derby figs to feel that, for example,Gun Runner may get a slower figure than the 4th and 5th places horses. The figs will not credit/pace adjust his attending a very fast pace and doing way more running overall than the two behind him that will get better figs.
A clear case of ground loss being overweight in reflecting performance.
Mike
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miff
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Also time to put a fork in the dosage index and, to a lesser extent, distance breeding. Nyquist yet another heavily sprint bred on immediate dam side, believe that's 3 years in a row for Derby winners.
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miff
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"EDIT - Also, I can't think of a single factor that people waste more time on in the Derby than "Pace Scenario". People waste so much time pouring over this point and then it never turns out the way the majority of people expected it to"
Seriously??the pace scenario played out rather exactly as predicted relative to where most would be the first half mile.Assuming a
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miff
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Frank,
Computer kids had track + 6 lengths fast, app 1 second on their parallel time chart, all paths honest, no wires all day but "honest"
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miff
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Methoddology wise for sure but GR did way more running, attending very fast pace, than the ground losers that will get better figs.
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miff
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Nyquist runs a top, Beyer had it 103(like TG - 1/2)TF has it exactly same.A top for slow, going in, Gun Runner who did lots of running,maybe moved a bit too early causing him second,perhaps
Exaggerator ran well again(lots of water on top of surface)with trouble but may never get past Nyquist in a fairly run race. Goes to Preakness if all ok.
TAP runners were no factor. Moyhaymen, top pick,
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Should Trump win, hopefully he will deport Frenchie or have him jailed.
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Evil Empire CDI trying to push business to Twinspires ADW and away from competitor TVG.
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miff
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Very good JB, that hole better be there, that's the point. Can he clear the inside and allow DC and Outwork go over him and sit.
.....sounds ez, but with 20 in the gate, never know.
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miff
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Not a remote chance Nyquist is taking back at the break, by design.Except for one race where he was bumped at the break, he's going for forward position.
If you are tactical, you always want to be outside the certain speeds out of a chute/long straightaway.If you look at race shape,it appears on paper that DC and Outwork will be going and angling right where Nyquist figures to be heading.
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miff
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DC in post 20 kinda ensures a petty fast first quarter. Nyquist drew poorly being inside of main speeds Outwork and DC, race going to clubhouse turn will be interesting.
Smith admitted poor judgement dead sending DC in the SA derby,he'll go but not dead send this time.
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miff
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Despicable Evil Empire,CDI, at it again.NBC Sports channel is carrying quite a few CD races Fri and Sat....most cable services have NBCSC
TVG2 is carrying signal,think, if you have it.
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miff
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At least you will be ok in the vertical when the conditions are known, in the horizontals gotta protect with Exagg if possible wet surface. At least Exagg can handle it, many others a guess.
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miff
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Chance of late day rain on Sat adds another variable....just what the doctor ordered.
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Don't recall the string but people I know did the checking, like a few years ago at least.
Make a random check yourself, it's not hard with replays/charts.
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miff
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TG ground loss was reviewed in depth some time ago, found to be generally very accurate.
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1. Terra Promessa
2. Weep No More
3. Lewis Bay
4. Go Maggie Go
5. Dream Dance
6. Mokat
7. Mo d'Amour
8. Royal Obsession
9. Paola Queen
10. Venus Valentine
11. Rachel's Valentina
12. Cathryn Sophia
13. Land Over Sea
14. Taxable
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miff
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Carina Mia not entered in Oaks, heading for Eight Belles.....ugh!
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Rob,
You kinda stated it. Exaggerator looks better on his sheet than he does in carefully watching his races.Agree he makes very live runs and is quick burst type, his chance imo is one late run.None of the closers are even close in explosiveness.
Take a look at each of his defeats and a common thread is he doesn't finish with authority. The SA Derby was a walkover when his only 2 riva
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