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Thoro-Graph
Brody's Cause headed to the West Virginia Derby next weekend.
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big18741
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Figures don't have her better on synth than turf and if she can duplicate the last one on grass here she'd be tough.
She's 6-1 early even with four scratches and Junior seems live today so I'm gonna take a shot she handles the firm turf.
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big18741
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Going with the #3 Euro Diamond Field.
An extra 1/16th shouldn't be a problem if she handles all of the other stuff racing first time here.
Post helps if Junior can figure out a trip.She caught some traffic in her last.
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big18741
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I like both his horses in the Belmont.
As a sire he's churned out plenty of 12f winners.
Something like 17 of his sons and daughters are stakes winners at the distance.
Destin should have a no excuse trip saving ground off the speed with the five weeks that Pletcher prefers.He broke his maiden at Belmont with an inside trip so no problem being down near the fence.Ground saving 0-1 sho
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Sounds like Creator and Mo Tom are possible.
Think we see a few more names pop up over the next week or two and hopefully not all one run closers.
Brody's Cause off those 3's and five weeks rest looks ready for a break thru at this distance.
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big18741
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Ma Can Do It was the Cherry Bomb at 50-1 for Romans.
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big18741
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Need the 30-1 underneath exotics slug.
Who is this years Hemingway's Key?
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big18741
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Laoban was blinkers off for the Derby if he drew in.
Assuming he has that equipment change next Saturday.
Stradivari most interesting of the new ones for me pending last race #'s.
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big18741
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Was there enough moisture in the track from the earlier rain to effect some horses good or bad?
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big18741
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Two preps,five or six weeks,coming in off pairs(even if they are slower)
seems to work well coming into the Derby.
Nyquist,Gun Runner obviously ran new tops here off that.
That's one way to make sense of them running 1-3 here.
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big18741
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I forget how they load for the Derby.
Is it inside-outside 1-20,2-19,3-18 etc?
Post is tactically good for DC but if he has to sit in that gate waiting for 18 others.....
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big18741
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DC rated just fine in his 2nd,3rd and 4th starts.
You can't assume he was rank because of the crowd.Because of the weather only 27,821 showed up on Santa Anita Derby day.
He ran his best race in the San Felipe when attendance was 27,259.
He broke his maiden opening day Dec 26th when they had their biggest crowd of the meet 44,873.
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big18741
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The one's you won't see anywhere were Danzing Candy last two at San Luis Rey.
Yesterday 59.80 (Breezing designation rare for California)but no splits given and Drf says a gallop out in 112.60 while Blood horse has a gallop out in 113.40
Might not mean a lot for those that already have him tossed but it'd be nice to get some more and accurate info about the splits/gallop out.
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big18741
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How can you ignore him?
Commanding Curve was easy enough to key given his sheet but Golden Soul needed a 4 pt jump and Tale of Verve improved 9 points.
The only thing those three had in common was never running good again after the Derby,Preakness(Tale o Verve)
If it wasn't Dallas Stewart he'd be an easy toss.
Tom's Ready is slow coming in like Golden Soul with similar
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big18741
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Brisnet had the race and the pace ridiculously fast.
I think they adjusted it down recently though.
I don't look at their stuff except for tracking workouts(they go back several months
for each horse)
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big18741
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His sheet shows the big trouble(T)designation.
I don't see where he was checked,bumped or stopped.
He was inside waiting to float out on the turn.
Nyquist and Swipe both on the outside got the jump on him but there wasn't big trouble for Brody.
Nyquist got bounced around twice early and Exaggerator took an early shot from Ralis.
Am I missing something with Brody's Caus
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big18741
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I guess I was looking for more reasons to dislike Shagaf.
Last night I even put him in with the group of slow horses(5 or worse) going into the Derby even though his debut was a 3.Caught that mistake this morning.
Clearly it's only 3 preps with the debut in November.
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big18741
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4 preps horses:
Creator
Shagaf
Majesto
Whitmore
Last 20 years
Tops 4%
Pair 20%
Off 21%
X 55%
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big18741
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Is a pair likely for Whitmore?
I like his price and the paired tops but there are some negatives.
4 preps
3 weeks rest
Does an extra furlong really help him given his finish going 8.5 and 9f's ?
If he does pair up you don't want it wasted with another wide trip in the Derby.
Inside draw would help(he's fine in traffic and didn't mind the rail in his Oaklawn sprin
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big18741
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The horses that finished ahead of Dortmund had to run a -3 and a -1.
Not saying DC or Outwork is capable of running their tops in the Derby but if either runs the 1 saving ground you feel really good about a horse in the field firing a 0 or better?
Firing Line was in off a pair of 1's
AP 1's and a -1
None of these horses have put two fast ones together yet.
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Don't know if DC is capable of a San Felipe repeat but in this years field a ground saving 1 could be really good.
Outwork sat 4 lengths off two sprinter workmates yesterday and cruised past them.
I don't get the feeling after DC ran off in the SA Derby that anybody wants to go with him early here.
Now DC might meltdown again and run off in which case the early pace will be rea
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Whitmore-Victor
My Man Sam-Irad
Oscar Nominated-Leperoux
Shagaf-Rosario
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big18741
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The two expected morning line favorites come in with back to back races with a BO(Nyquist)and BI(Exaggerator)
It may be nothing since Street Sense went into his Derby with some drifting in both his 2007 preps but it is something to think about.
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big18741
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Not too sure about Lani but three thru seven on paper off the top of my head in no particular order:
Nyquist
Gun Runner
Destin
Mohaymen
Mor Spirit
Exaggerator is versatile going back to last year but he's been far back in his last two route races.
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big18741
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Exaggerator last 1/8th was 13.36 in the SA Derby.
A lot of the preps this year were fast early.
SA Derby in particular because of the presence of two stretch out sprinters in the field.Denman's Call on the rail and Iron Rob in the middle with Danzing Candy in between.Uncle Lino in search of points from the outside was also gonna go.
Perfect storm for a hot pace with Danzing Candy st
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miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Will be a little surprised if Cupid runs in derby
> after being torched.
Can't see Baffert chasing the Derby with him which leaves only Danzing Candy and Outwork on the front end.
Key to the pace and a meltdown is whether Danzing Candy runs off again or not.
He lost it in the SA Derby and his damsi
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0 X for Danzing Candy.
Three point top in the San Felipe followed by the X in the Santa Anita Derby slop.
Swale the only horse coming in off a big fat X(also in the slop)in his last prep that went on to win the Derby.
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