Show all posts by user
Thoro-Graph
Page 2 of 4
Pages: 1234
Results 31 — 60 of 119
As reported earlier today, AP is just getting back to himself. He will be compromised and not 100% tight for the race. Although he won the derby at 80% to 90%? fitness that won't happen in the Classic:
Jay Privman , Santa Anita , 2015-10-03 - DRF Live Posted :
Baffert: American Pharoah going to stay at SA, not fly to Kentucky
Bob Baffert just told me that American Pharoah will not fl
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Both horses were vet scratches for their prior trainer and then changed hands.
Would be interesting to see how many times this has happened out of all the move ups. An obvious physical problem corrected plus his secret sauce makes for a potent formula for sure. One thing, he is not telling and Parx is not holding a press conference to inquire. Most of us would agree either way it is not good fo
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Not be a dead horse but here goes (yes pun intended), the following are of course raw unadjusted times but do a give a general sense that historically the Travers is not kind to very sharp fractions including internal ones. AP's raw mile of 1:35.08 would have tied for the fastest ever by the leader and eventual winner. Per the 2014 Media Guide NYRA.com
FASTEST FRACTIONAL AND FINAL TIMES
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
46 half mile cost him, forget the whip nonsense. Presence of Moreno forced Mikey to send and clear the field or risk going head and head.
Honor Code is a quirky sort. Forgot that he wouldn't train, he did finally get the work in and was fit. The point of training is to maintain fitness. Shug thought he was getting too smart for his on good and HC didn't like the fact they were try
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
An age old condumdrum: How to expand market share without conceding margin erosion? Instead of watering down the existing offering, continue to expand the menu. Every mature consumer company from Starbucks to USPS broadens it's offerings. Any thoughts on a broader subscription model, so many races per month at differing price points. Anyway for Jerry to do more analysis on bigger cards outs
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Re: distance and AP, I thought he was a winner and summoned Jim on a post after he went "dark" for back-up regarding pattern read based on a very tough Preakness number per Jerry. My only hesitation was his dam side distance shortcomings. The 3/4 and mile splits, a comfortable 1:13 2/5 and 1:37 4/5 -slower than his gallop out in the penultimate work.
Not to take anything away from AP b
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Pivoting from Wired magazine to Slate magazine, more from the non-kook aid drinkers camp:
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Two different animals and two very different ways they trained/are training into the Belmont:
Not that any of this means he can still keep that stride the last 1/8th.
The KD is won by the 1/8th pole most of time by 1 1/8 horses. The Belmont is won in the last 1/8th more often and with much closer finishes similar to turf racing without the bunched finish.
This race is an anomaly today
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Thanks for the correction, off is the correct term. But agree the internals etc point more to a pair up and would have him not ever going backward yet.
Buffers shows 38% X if off a top by 1 to 4 points, that's why the Preakness fig which was tough to come up with makes the pattern read tougher. The main argument against either way would be 3 negative numbers in a row and 4 races in 8 wee
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
1 more all veined up, looks fit to say the least:
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
I used to live on the track at Belmont in the late 80's and walked over that way for the good eats, went with a Jamaican groom so never got a second look. We were stabled in the open air stakes barn near the track. My first year (1998) Risen Star shipped in and rumors about health were widespread. They were put to rest the day prior when he blew out 33 3/5 and we saw him come back good. He
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Would only be more concerned if AP doesn't follow that work pattern, trainers are a creature of habit.
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
If you are taking the LIRR into Belmont, I do have one sure thing for the day.
I was there for the Big Brown fiasco and avoided the chaos on the platform by taking a right down Hempstead Ave. (cab will be quickest), passing over the Cross Island Parkway then 6 blocks down, a right onto Springfield . That will take you after 5 blocks to the Queen's Village train depot. We waited about 15 m
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Just a launching point for a new thread... I'm sure the writer never thought of his work having to stand up to the scrutiny of a full statistical analysis. Many on this board had a statistics class at some point, what I remember most were the gambling references as one of the few ways to make the numbers relatable to the normal person (read degenerate). References to risk/reward treatments h
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
30 triple crown attempts:
11 wins
7 second
5 thirds
4 fourths
3 unplaced
Why American Pharoah could be a special case in the annals of Triple Crown history
James Willoughby
MAY 19, 2015
“The past is a different country: they do things differently there.”
The 2015 Belmont Stakes will hopefully have a more upbeat ending than the 1953 novel The Go-Between, but far-distant histo
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
From Expressbet.com
Two Strokes of Fortune for Pharoah
May 18, 2015 | By Jeremy Plonk
Yes, American Pharoah has won America’s two biggest races for the 3-year-old set so far this year – the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. So it’s easy to see why his fortune has been two-pronged. But as he embarks on stage three of the Triple Crown at Belmont in three weeks’ time, his biggest strokes of good
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
He would be a better turf horse, Big Brown would have been a great one.
Carrying your head high is ok and more like turf action, on dirt they want them to lower their head and stride out farther. On turf they can have "daisy cutter" action and be very effective.
FWIW
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Courtesy of underdog.com
Prior to the Kentucky Derby, you are typically required to lay about $1000 to win $100 on a “no” bet that there will be a Triple Crown Winner. Now that American Pharoah has won the Kentucky Derby, there are only two legs left and the odds have shifted. The mainstream media is already touting Pharoah as the one that might be able to win the Triple Crown. The media is
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Good bet on Bovada.com ?
Horse Racing Futures
Will American Pharoah win the Belmont Stakes?
May 16, 2015 - 05:13 PM EDT
All wagers have action.
Yes 10/11 No 10/13
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
First time there when stabled at the Fairgrounds in 1985, JD ran prior to the FG traditional Thanksgiving opening. Raced under the lights and I remember the jockeys being very tall. The running joke was about cleaning up the needles in the paddock and the batteries off the bullring track. Ran into Bum Philips (New Orleans Saints/Houston Oilers coach) there with his 10 gallon hat and reminded me o
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
I was going to list Vincennes in Paris but didn't think anyone else would get it.
Missed the Arc by a week and they rotate tracks over there each weekend. Got dropped of by a business partner who lived in Paris that knew nothing about the races. I had no idea they were trotters without the carts, totally lost and tried to bet simulcast of the only flat racing at a track called Nancy to no
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
In order with year: (w = worked in stables)
Oaklawn Park 1977(w)
Louisiana Downs 1980 (w)
Fairgrounds 1985 (w)
Jefferson Downs 1985
Monmouth Park 1986 (w)
Atlantic City 1986
Philadelphia Park
Meadowlands 1986 (w)
Gulfstream Park 1986 (w)
Hialeah 1987 (w)
Saratoga 1987(w)
Belmont Park 1987 (w)
Aqueduct 1987
Calder 1991
Fort Erie 2004
Churchill Downs 2011
Santa Anita 2013
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Gary Stevens said he learned a lot riding him for the first time 2 races back when he made the lead too soon and Dortmund came back. That his run wasn't as long and he needed to time it right. Well he didn't get the chance as he had to ride him hard turning for home to keep his position. He probably didn't change leads because he was tired.
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Re: Upstart, he had 4 negative numbers lifetime going in and 3 in a row (a first?) and to win he need 5 which would have been another first. Take nothing away from the X race, if he is sound and rested with be major player later.
AP would have won easier if not let float out so wide turning for home, running against himself at that point. Weight loss etc will be keen to watch going into Preak
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Has any Derby runner had 4 negative numbers coming in?
Nothing comes to mind, if so this will be unchartered territory for a 3 year old.
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Given all the potential problems, arguably the best horse has won 4 out of the last 8. All but California Chrome had far outside posts to stay clear of the chaos.
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
After that potential Derby winning number in Jan., he has not run straight in the stretch (was at Gulfstream for both). When he switches over to his right lead down the lane he exaggerates and ends up leaning in on horses in conjunction with the inside horses coming out both times. Not the best way to going into the biggest race of his life with the largest field. Two knocks for me for both but
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
2 at a race distance of 1 1/4 miles:
The Basics
The lower the number the faster the race. On our scale 1 point = ~1 length at 5 furlongs increasingly to 2 lengths at 1 1/4 miles. Each sheet has 4 calendar years going back from right to left. The last race a horse ran would be the uppermost number in the right- most column corresponding to the horse’s age.
5 pounds in weight = 1 point at all
by
rhagood
-
Ask the Experts
Page 2 of 4
Pages: 1234