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Thoro-Graph
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I do prefer that analogy better. It is the essence of finding value in any wager, true probability vs rate of return as is often discussed on this board. The closer a handicapper's estimate of the former directly correlates in the long run to the latter no matter the betting vehicle. Horse racing always creates opportunities (inefficiencies) due to the variance of opinions and abilities to
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rhagood
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Two basic premises overlooked by way too experienced gamblers guys like Crist and Beyer regarding actual value of these wagers vs parlays:
1. A 6 horse parlay wager is almost 100% mythical, no one would actually go all in as the wagers/stakes progressed. The risk to reward gets highly skewed and cold feet would set in.
2. From a value standpoint their case is mute, they don't factor
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rhagood
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Agree with you, especially the cold stable aspect. I didn't play the race and was looking back for the "why him". 30% top is buyable at 10-1, not necessarily a play. Even Steven Crist wrote an article featuring him but didn't outright pick him, just suggested since he finished a length behind Palice Malice that 3x the odds was a good tie-breaker if you were playing. He act
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rhagood
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To its credit, Thoro-pattern pointed out that Lukas was 34% tops off the x-x-top and the last 90 days was hitting 30% tops. Safe to say that Will Take Charge ran a new top.
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rhagood
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Orb is not at the top of a cycle but starting a new cycle. He will improve next out, most likely the Jockey Club Gold Cup and will peak again at Breeder's Cup. Wether he wins any, all or none of the 3 is debatable. He has put on nearly 100 lbs post Belmont and needs a tightener to be at is best. He can attend slower paces when he is fitter and the fact that he dropped back again in the 2nd
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rhagood
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“The Triple Crown took a lot out of him physically,” said Orb’s exercise rider, Jenn Patterson. “There is a scale down there, when they weighed him he was just under a thousand pounds, like 980 or 990; now he’s up to about 1,070. He has grown too, gotten bigger. He is still growing; muscle wise, he changed a lot.”
So much so, she believes he’s the horse he was prior to the Derby, which he won by
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rhagood
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Banamine is now standard fare 48 hours out? Except for Shug (hay , oats and water) Whether they need it or not it's like a Flintstone's vitamin. Back in the 80's Banamine was to keep sore horses in training not part a a pre-race cocktail.
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rhagood
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Classic case of glass half full, glass half empty on Orb. 50/50 to run well or react. Many outward signs pointed in his favor but the ones we never see including those closest to him present themselves during the stress of a race.
As for Oxbow, he had the lead at the top of the stretch in the Derby and faded by far the least of any front runner in a pace that torched any near it. On numbers
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rhagood
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“It’s better to have tried and failed than to live life wondering what would’ve happened if I had tried” – Alfred Lord Tennyson
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rhagood
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Couldn't find this wager on either drf bets or xpressbet website, did I miss something or was it only available on track or via simulcast?
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rhagood
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Blinkers on but takes back (she never really passed horses before) and makes the long run which is right up his ally. If Orb encounters any trouble in the Preakness that may well look the finish again near the wire, if not more like the derby.
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rhagood
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Jim:
You had mentioned that Swift Warrior is good to go if he gets into the gate which has been an issue. I noticed on Dan Illmans's latest DRF Blog on Horses to Watch list this comment:
May 13:
*SWIFT WARRIOR (tied up) - Belmont training - 5 Furlongs - 1:01.23 b (6/28)
I worked the backstretch in the late 80's (saw Easy Goer go to the track almost every day) and tying up is
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rhagood
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From Andy Beyer's column today:
All handicappers recognize that some horses dislike mud and that bad efforts on off tracks can often be disregarded. Yet it is not common for high-class horses to run as horribly as Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday because they don't like a racing surface. Ten times since 1945 the Derby has been run on a track labeled sloppy, muddy, or slow, and the form
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rhagood
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5 of the past 11 Derby winners repeated in the Preakness, with Street Sense losing in the last stride. Of the other 5 non-repeaters all ran new tops in the Derby. Giacamo and Mine That Bird by 4 to 5 points. Animal Kingdom, Barbaro and Super Saver had 3 point jumps and none repeated. Dovetails with your excellent number crunching analysis.
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rhagood
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Your data just backs and confirms why the Preakness is the most form-full race of the 3 and one of the most of any Grade 1 event. Almost no jump-ups and the good form/ paired numbers hold just 2 weeks later. Once they run 1 1/4 miles, the fitness level is at a peak and the short turnaround actually works in favor of maintaining that peak vs reacting. Either longer spacing or shorter spacing wor
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rhagood
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The podcast gave nothing away but found these comments on drf postings under Steve Crist article, again for what it's worth....
Steve, do you pay attention at all to Kerry Thomas, The Herd Whisperer? He analyzes the emotional conformation of the horses and their individual and herd dynamics. He picked Animal Kingdom two years ago, and narrowed it down to I'll Have Another & Union
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rhagood
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Interview with Kerry on TwinSpires Horse Racing podcast dated 5/1 per his Facebook page. One poster commented "ALWAYS loved Orb.." for what it's worth. I saw him win the Florida Derby and liked what I saw. That race is due to produce another KD winner, last was 2008. Other recent dual winners in 2006, 2001, 1995, 1990 and 1984.
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rhagood
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Heres your speed if he runs, per Mike Welsh today in DRF:
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – With trainer Bob Baffert looking on, The Factor galloped Monday morning for the first time since his arrival at Churchill Downs on April 19 and for the first time since having minor throat surgery performed here last week.
Baffert confirmed Monday that The Factor underwent a myectomy following his seventh-place fini
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rhagood
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Lot of hopefuls in this....
Todd Pletcher provided an update to the Louisville media this morning on Uncle Mo, the 2-year-old champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner who lost for the first time in five lifetime starts when third in the Wood Memorial. Uncle Mo is scheduled to work in company Tuesday with jockey John Velazquez.
After the Wood, blood work detected what Pletcher referred t
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rhagood
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Correct about gallop out, she was all spent. I don't blame Mike as she didn't take the bit early and left herself too much to do against the best dirt horses she ever faced. This was a much tougher task than closing on a bunched up field on polytrack in last years Cup. If you want to place Blame I put it on Sherrif and Moss. They had all year to point to this race and win Horse of the
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rhagood
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Shaved above the knee, yes but the suspensory isn't on the kneecap last I checked.
If this was your horse would you have worked in the slop? Sadler chose to but here is what he had to say:
"He'd never been on an off track," said John Sadler, the trainer of Sidney's Candy. "I crossed my fingers when he went out there."
Considering an old hoof issue one
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rhagood
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Sidney's Candy Derby strategy is to rate - no real surprise there.
See comments following 1st work at CD. Inside post position may hamper
those efforts.
Santa Anita Derby (G1) hero SIDNEY'S CANDY (Candy Ride ) traveled five-eighths in :59 4/5 on a fast track at Churchill Downs Saturday, impressing observers in his first-ever work on a dirt surface.
A homebred campaigned by Sid and
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rhagood
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Rumors always fly this time of year. I was at the rail for the Fountain of Youth and he was not shaven then. Correct that it usually done before a procedure but it may be related to prepping for the front bandages? Rumor and fact are two different things. For example, at the same FOY I spoke with a "clocker" that I worked with 20 years ago (NY stable). I asked him about Buddy the Saint
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rhagood
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Bandage question answered correctly.
Passing on FLA Derby was per Zayat,
Pletcher was ok to run there.
Zayat may have been buying time for potential sale, also didn't like 6 weeks into Derby (5 weeks has worked fine as of late, previously thought to be too long).
Training in FLA is no problem, same route taken by Dutrow and Big Brown.
The trip may beat him but how many best of gener
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rhagood
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Rags had him pairing his last per TAP:
By Mike Welsch of DRF
HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. - Trainer Todd Pletcher reports that Eskendereya is doing very well after his eye-catching performance in last Saturday's Grade 1 Wood Memorial and is back galloping over his winter base at the Palm Meadows training center.
"Visually, it sure looked like the race wouldn't have taken anything
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rhagood
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Sportsbook.com has the following odds listed (all other 12-1 or higher):
Eskendereya 3-1
Lookin at Lucky 9-2
Sidneys Candy 9-2
Drosselmeyer 10-1 (same for all listed below)
Setsuko
Ice Box
Endorsement
Mission Impazible
Discreetly Mine
Dublin
American Lion
Rule
Jackson Bend
Conveyance
World Sports Exchange (wsex.com)
ESKENDEREYA 8-5
LOOKIN AT LUCKY 5-
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rhagood
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Since she is posing nude (I assume), will they try to strip (no pun intended) her of the Preakness crown!
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rhagood
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Found this deja-vu tidbit in a search on the New Yorker magazine website while looking for a recent feature article on trainer Larry Jones..
G. F. T. Ryall, The Race Track, “THE RACE TRACK,” The New Yorker, June 4, 1949, p. 82
Read the full text of this article. (Registration required.)
June 4, 1949 Issue
Keywords
Horse Racing
ABSTRACT: Tells about the speed of different tracks a
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rhagood
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