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Thoro-Graph
TGJB,
Couple of ideas here.
Anytime a person or a group of people want to try to get their point across, its best to have a plan, or consider suggestions.
The Coalition at least represents a start, and may really impact the situation.
For someone who wants to take the time for a project, I would offer the following suggestion:
Look at the Keeneland Result Charts from last Sunday, 4-20-08.
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Uncle,
Whaddaya doin', shopping at the grocery store? Just kidding. Good luck.
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TGJB,
I just happened to grab this comment. I think its a great point.
Those guys you mentioned are among many who have been flying under the radar in the last year or so.
I have great respect for Dutrow, but after several suspensions, when is enough, enough?
I told a friend recently that I hope the Derby isn't found to be anything fishy.
The sport gets enough bad ink.
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One more thing about poly/sythn and I'll drop the subject.
It's "possible" some of the insanity about how these surfaces play is related to the maintenance of the track.
Depending on the circuit and the weather conditions, most dirt tracks are gonna harrow after every race. With the poly/synth tracks they are tending to cross-harrow every 3 races.
With that cross-harrowi
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jimbo,
Great post, and some interesting observations as well. I did a very detailed project on Poly and all synthetics several months ago. I included about 9 tracks which I separated into the different surfaces. I'm fortunate in that I have 2 assistants with the data collection, and I sort it and try to make some sense out of it. My main point always being to "let the data come to m
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miff,
Thanks, I couldn't have said it better myself.
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Clown,
At no point did I ever say there would be a move up from synth to dirt. I only used these few horses to suggest it. Colonel John, no doubt will be one of the 4-5 favs in the race, regardless of any additional factors.
You're probably correct in that Z Fortune was the best horse in the Ark Derby, that's why he was in the winner's circle. (Sometimes the best horse doesn
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mkram,
Thanks for the comments. As I've stated, I have virtually no knowledge of Thorograph methods and that's a reason I've began frequenting the forum in the last 3-4 days.
The thoro is in such stark contrast to my normal methodology, that I find it refreshing and insightful to read what others are focusing on. At this early point, each side may support the other in small w
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Clown,
I'm just throwing it out there. You can believe what you want. If it's possible, give me some specific examples that indicate what you're saying is true.
My entire post had disclaimers and qualifiers in it, it wasn't based on a large research project (like yours apparently is).
As far as your comment, "which California horses will run similar or same efforts o
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I've done a little pre-homework for your consideration.
This will be a short exercise and subject to being discounted by anyone.
I used the following horses, Tres Borrachos, Indian Sun, Gayego, Bob Black Jack, Colonel John, and I included Tiago. So this sample only pertains to 6 horses and a total of 14 prior races. For what it's worth, this is what I found.
The three horses tha
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That's probably true Eight Belles. Most Derby's go right as planned and are won in pretty easy fashion...
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Miff/fkach,
I ran a pretty indepth study about 4-5 months ago on poly vs. dirt figures. I'll try to find that pdf file I created and tell you what I found.
It was pretty enlightening to me at the time, and has held true for several months now.
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jimbo,
Nice post, lots of interesting thoughts. I counted myself as among those who liked War Pass just as much as Brown. Anyone who thinks they both didn't have questions or issues would be fooling themselves. But yes, I gave War Pass a punchers chance before he was declared out.
Since I'm a newcomer to Thoro, I'll classify myself as a pace guy, okay? Its tough to argue that
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Chuckles,
whatever you said, its beyond my scope..
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ronwar,
We all know it's w-a-y too early to get Derby fever. What happens if Brown takes a bad step during his next work? Which others are gonna not like the CD surface?
I try to approach a major horseracing event like this with the idea that any horse, aka War Pass today, could be ruled out at any time. Then what's a guy to do? Panic? Not me, I'm handicapping all the legitim
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ronwar,
It wouldn't be fair for me to tell you Mike Smith and I are good friends.
It would kinda spoil the fun leading up to the race.
At some point in the next couple weeks, if you'd like, I'll drop you a personal email and tell you what I personally think of the race.
Have a good one
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Monmouth Guy,
That's entirely possible. I just can't believe that Kent's gonna send that colt and try to wire the field. We've all seen it done, but we've also seen some good ones get cooked on the front end too. It's gonna be interesting to see what unfolds. Whichever way you ultimately decide to play, good luck.
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shanahan,
Thanks for accepting my attempt at humor. I always hate the thought of a guy walking around the track mumbling to himself... Been there and done that a couple times. Sounds like a good wagering plan though GOOD LUCK !!
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ronwar,
Yep, changes things. At this early point, I'm saying it makes Brown even more enigmatic to figure. We all know Desormeaux would have War Pass in his sights by the backstretch. Does that mean Kent is willing to lay a little closer now, or just drop over and get a nice spot and stalk?
Strategy is a wonderful thing...when it works.
My play against Brown just got better.
Thanks fo
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shanahan,
What does that little voice in your head say you should do?
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Silver Charm,
Very astute observation. Deciding that the players would just automatically warm up to Poly/synth was an unrealistic expectation. They apparently think gamblers "have" to have some action, regardless of the circumstances.
Those powers that be simply do not take into account the reality that all serious gamblers want a value for their risk, plus, they wanna feel like t
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kfach,
I think that's a realistic analysis. If Kent has already decided that Brown is "much the best", that usually means losing some ground and waiting to push the button at any time in the race. I've always found that a dangerous situation when a jock thinks the race is his.
We don't know the post assignments yet, but one things for sure, by getting out of the gate
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I'm always anxious to learn who the latest "wise guy" horses are for the Derby.
Sweetnorthernsaint, Point Determined, Bob and John, Cirvular Quay, Any Given Saturday...They're always right there, aren't they?
How's come Street Sense, Barbaro, Giacomo, Smarty Jones, et al, aren't the wise guy picks?
Getting excited about Court Vision 2 weeks out seems a bit ea
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Rick B,
Thanks for the response. When I said, "it limits your ability to play all the circuits now." This is what I meant: For those that have taken Poly off the table, i.e. they won't play it, that results in taking almost the entire Cal circuit away, and in Kentucky, other than CD and RD, the Poly surface would limit Turfway and Keeneland. So when I made that comment, I was im
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Miff,
Finally have a chance to respond. I'm not directly criticizing Andy Beyer, I'm simply pointing out that as one of the most reknown cappers in the business, he seems to have thrown up his hands and scratched his head, and given up on trying to find the solution to winning on artificial. My response was in regard to his article in the DRF where he seems exasperated. NO doubt, his
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Miff,
I'll respond later this afternoon, I'm headed out the door for my real job.
Thanks.
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Michael D,
Sorry I missed the follow-up on your question. I'm headed out the door to work (2:50 a.m. CST), I'll send some info later in the afternoon.
Thanks
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Miff,
Thanks for the comments. I watched the War Pass race live and seen the replay several times. I thought he was throttled from 15 seconds into the race, but honestly, I was really concerned with how he ran up the stretch in that 1 mile allowance race. It just seemed like his rump was almost stationary, he didn't seem to be able to use his hindquarters to push off. So to answer that p
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Michael D,
I indicated that I'm not comparing Bris and Thoro and the variables they use in their methodology. What I did say, is that I'm well versed in understanding the Bris numbers and I'm admittedly a total novice regarding the Thorograph approach.
Even though Bris would have its limitations, I've yet to find any site, including this one, that is without limits.
Regar
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