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Thoro-Graph
"Why not just use the previous start before the biased race? "
Looking at wherethevalue's methodology, you pretty much asked the same question?
If one could 'quantify' or 'measure' the incline/decline, how would you do that?
I don't think Wherethevalue nor I suggest that incorporating a dead rail performance into one's handicapping was a one t
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belmont3
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Wherethevalue,
Like your concept.
How does one practically determine and/or quantify the incline/decline effect of a bias?
If the incline/decline # is determined based on future efforts, would the inherent advantage be lost?
Let me illustrate with a recent race at Belmont Park.
Friday, May 19th
6th race
MSW 1 1/16th on the main track.
Myakka River trained by Shug looked a bit
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belmont3
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Johnny,
You are correct.
I seem to recall none of them won until Uncle Bill touted one at Saratoga at 30- 1 or more and it came home!!
I don't recall if anyone examined the next race fig to see if that group improved in their next race.
I sometimes create a virtual stable so I can follow subsequent races.
Already did that for the may 5th and May 6th turf fields.
Fortunately,
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belmont3
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"It was just another way of looking at this topic."
"Not definitive but something to consider"
There was no premise. Just looking at data available in a different light.
I went in with an open mind.
I assumed nothing
As to the obvious, new tops are not in of themselves a reason to declare a track biased one way or the other.
Nor is a replay of 1 isolated race.
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belmont3
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For pairs and tops, I used TG final figures. I also used TG path info which I realize only covers the turns. I used Equibase full Charts on the earlier path info I posted plus the replays for May 6th (visual).
It was just another way of looking at this topic.
Intuitively, I would have expected that a track with a 'rail' bias would produce less tops and pairs for those that ran
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belmont3
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Not definitive but something to consider;
Dirt Races Oaks Day:
TG pairs and tops while being on rail (1w) at some point in the race:
13 total (5 in the 1st 4 races)
TG Pairs or Tops while being off rail:
19 (6 in 1st 4 races)
Turf Races Oaks Day (5th and 10th)
Pairs or Tops on Rail
1 -Latent revenge in sprint
Off Races and X's on the Rail: 9
DERBY DA
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belmont3
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Mike,
That post belongs to me and not Frank. Sorry for the confusion.
Professor Frank, who wrote his Meteorological Doctoral Thesis on Frozen Rails at Thistledown, had graded my previous treatise on Track Bias with a resounding "F"!!
As most of the Backyard gang knows, Frank is better at handicapping, Beer, Bakeries (Pereccas), Restaurants (D'Raymonds in Loudonville NY) an
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belmont3
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Frank D...
BIAS BOB BACK:
Am on record in earlier post that no dirt bias on May 5th Oaks Day
Am on record that the turf rail was 'dead' on May 5th Oaks Day.
As to Derby Day May 6th.
And despite the protestations of trainer Casse and all the TV Thoroperts ....I went back and watched every replay twice. Pan shot and Head ON. Read every Chart twice and examined the path info on
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belmont3
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You are pretty astute. :)
No argument with the getting old!!
And Yes, I did not bet CD after the first few. Did play Oaks day with very small success in the end.
But I did watch them all.
I also read the charts to and even took notes. (Sean should be proud!)
As far as track bias.
They happen no doubt.
As you pointed out, they are most useful in betting back horses comprised by
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belmont3
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Might as well start:
IWC, McC, PJ not going
CEmpire on the fence
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belmont3
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Frank,
Agree with the unprofitable part. :)
I left some hay money in Elmont and still cannot figure how I snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. LOL
As to the CD "track bias".
I think you can look at the 'visual' and then look at the "data" or the charts.
1) OAKS DAY --somewhat deceiving
4 of first 6 races were wtw types and a couple of 3 path to
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belmont3
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Frank,
This is like Buffetomania and the NCAA brackets
The pivotal word in the contest is $100 credit to 'anyone'.
I assume if 10,000 people hit this 4 horse box, TGJB will give out 10000 x $100 worth of credits or a cool $1 million.
3478 for me.
Tweets count?
Bob
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belmont3
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Think I could easily cast some of our T-generates in a documentary about handicapping the Derby:
Eclipse award and "Oscar Nominated" (with apologies to the horse) for sure.
Think Fairmount gets the star role.
As for the rest:
??
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belmont3
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Re/ Triple Crown Training regimens:
Found this article form a few years back.
Interesting:
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belmont3
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Very pleased to see Frank D is up bright and early posting on the forum.
Must have been a slow night in Clifton park :)
As to the Hawthorne Derby selection:
The selection of our own Fairmount (St. Louie Guy) as the key?? I can guarantee Fairmount will show up for this race on short rest or no rest at all!!
Should be one interesting post race urinalysis!!
With that in mind, and in all
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belmont3
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Wasn't War Emblem a private purchase by Baffert a few weeks before Derby?
And still 21 to 1. :)
Remember that very well :)
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belmont3
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AJ,
Agree with Jimbo on the betting strategy.
Realize the odds are just projections but consider this:
AT 15-1, 15-1, 12-1 and 15-1, the best possible return per $8 betting unit is $32.00.
Your effective odds per betting unit is 3-1.
Adding an exacta saver in the same betting denomination doubles betting unit to $16.
In the short run, this type of quasi "dutch" betting may
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belmont3
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Jimbo,
I watched the entire AQU card Saturday and read the charts.
I would respectfully (and respectfully :) being the pivotal word) challenge the assumption that the Saturday AQU card was speed biased.
To avoid a semantical debate (and for the purposes of this post) I would define a wtw as just that. Leads gate to wire and/or leads at every call
Close to pace means just that. Did no
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belmont3
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Not sure this link will work.
Barbara Livingston (racing photographer) posted an interesting tweet re/ Man O War
Bob
Scroll down her tweets. Thought the elementary school paper was interesting but Who saves that stuff?
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belmont3
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Frank,
Glad you posted this.
First thing I did after reading Silver's post was to pull up Secretariat's PPs.
Just a note, one of his 5 losses was a DQ in the Champagne.
Ran 12 times as a 3yo?? 5 times against elders with 2 huge wins on the sod.
So, I have a letter from Penny Tweedy hanging in my office. It is dated Feb. 23, and addressed to Dick Schaap (the late great sportswri
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belmont3
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Fairmount,
All is Quiet on the Pa. Front.
Somewhat limited action on the Winter Racing Tour.
Swore off your beloved Oaklawn due to severe case of 'cashless syndrome' :)
Playing some AQU, Gulfstream and Parx.
Can eliminate me from your Saratoga suspect list. I am booked for Long Beach Island (Jersey Shore not far from Monmouth Park) for 2 weeks in July and Saratoga dates are a
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belmont3
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Philly,
I'll respond. :)
Watched the replay panned and head on.
Based upon what I have seen recently, I am not sure why there was even an inquiry.
The 5 cleared the 6 easily and was not going to be caught.
Baseless logic-- The 6 'might' have caught the 2 and, therefore, was denied a placing....so we penalize the clear winner. I guess that was the rationale.
I would
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belmont3
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Quiet time on the Board.
The Weatherman has become a Snow Bird, Uncle Bill is still watching Giant-Cowboy replays, PDub is on line to buy NBA finals tix and there is an APB out in St. Louis for Fairmount.
Meanwhile, in Snowy TrumPAland and somewhere in Luzerne County, a Tgenerate downloaded PARX past performances. (desperate times at Kingston High)
After watching Natural Warrior win the op
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belmont3
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Fairmount,
Have you sobered up?
Great story and nice pick.
Congrats
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belmont3
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Fastest 2 yo # since Street Sense ran neg or so.
Pretty impressive.
For comparison:
Nyquist ran a 2 3/4.
Songbird a 3 3/4
Beholder a 4
Union Rags a 2 in a runner up effort
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belmont3
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Wow Sean!
A Year to Remember for sure!!
You are the Morton Salt Boy of 2016.
"When it Rains It Pours"
Are TG figs deductible? You will need a few deductions this year.
Congrats
Bob
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belmont3
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Geez Johnny,
Fairmount does a better one man celebration booting home a Backyard 9/2 shot!!
LOL.
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belmont3
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Mary Bacon:
The Kidnapped Kid
I would comment but this story has it all.
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belmont3
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AJKreider,
The 2yo colts appear to have gone extremely fast.
Be interesting to see the TG# for that event.
Pretty impressive on the timer.
Bob
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belmont3
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