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Thoro-Graph
"hyperbaric chambers and while they can help with problems they dont make horses faster"
Are you saying that you would not expect a horse that is running with pain to run faster when the pain is removed? Seems counter-intuitive. Can you elaborate?
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JimP
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"WHO is cheating, and how to deal with it in our handicapping"
There's the crux of the matter: How to deal with it in our handicapping!
Is there something in the archive on that? I would like to see your recommendations on how to factor in drug-on and drug-off considerations into handicapping future races. Is it measurable? Can it be factored into the figures? Can you adjust
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JimP
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Ah, the NFL. Now there's a drug free environment.
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JimP
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"2-- Cheating doesn't make TG or other data meaningless. Only inaccuracy can do that."
Accuracy of the data is not the issue. Predictive value is the issue. The most accurate data in the world is of no value if it lacks predictive capacity. If one accepts that the outcome of any upcoming race is likely to be substantially determined by drug-on or drug-off actions of the particip
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JimP
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All valid points but my questions weren't really addressing "the game" in general. My questions were specifically addressed to the posters on this board. Why do YOU play the game, buy the sheets, own horses if you believe cheating is so widespread? Of course one response is that YOU don't believe cheating is widespread. That was the Sighthound position. So my questions are to
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JimP
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No one? These were sincere questions. I would really like to hear from the players and owners why they stay in the game.
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JimP
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Since Frank D's opinion seems to be shared by the majority here, I have 3 questions for anyone who cares to respond:
1. Given that the game is fixed, why do you continue to play it?
2. Why do you buy expensive past performance data like TG when past performances are so frequently rendered meaningless by the common place use of drugs to alter the performance of the horses?
3. For the subse
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JimP
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Good for you. You are apparently making some assumptions about my state of mind. I'm pleased for you that your handicapping hits on a higher percentage than your mind reading. 2 (or 3) out of 11 is an outstanding day for the Analysis as well. I wasn't knocking it. I was just counting. Is there something wrong with keeping score?
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JimP
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I only counted the races where a specific play was stated. The analysis of the 5th listed the 3 "best" horses but didn't state any particular bet. But I can see how one could deduce that a Box was intended even though not stated. So count that one and the score is 3 wins, 8 outs, 2 passes.
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JimP
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Of the specific bets that were recommended in the Analysis, I can see only 2 that were cashed. Races 6 and 7.
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JimP
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Starter's List is issued by the Starter and includes horses that have caused problems for the Starter. Usually means the horse is ineligble to start in a race until some corrective action is taken. Not likely to apply to IHA.
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JimP
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I believe you are confusing the business of horse racing from the business of gambling on horse races. Maybe there is an argument for the congruence of casino gambling and horse race gambling. I personally think it is a reach, but I can at least see the argument. But as far as any natural congruence between casino gambling and horse racing, I just don't see it. The relationship is an artific
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JimP
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I am a long time fan of this sport, but I don't see why it should be subsidized. Any business should stand on its own. When the subsidies are removed the industry economics will adjust accordingly. If the industry can't sustain itself without subsidies then I guess it shouldn't exist.
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JimP
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Perhaps you're correct about Ace's intent. On the other hand, I understood that JB created the Redboard Room precisely because he thought it would be instructive for us to look at past races. Regardless of his motives for doing so, Ace seems to have raised an interesting question. I think I might learn something by hearing a response from TG on this particular race.
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JimP
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I think everyone is being too hard on Ace. Maybe someone at TG should just address the question straightup. It might be helpful for all of us to hear the rationale for excluding PS from the analysis. I haven't rechecked but I recall that PS had a big last race figure. So instead of all the redboarding venom maybe an explanation of the thinking of the analysis writer would be more productive.
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JimP
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It should work either way. The relative point difference among the horses will be the same either way.
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JimP
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I question the validity of adjusting the figures for the impact of the sire without also adjusting them for the impact of the dam.
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JimP
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To err is human, to repent divine, to persist devilish, Benjamin Franklin
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JimP
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I thought it was originally designed to be moved all around the country, including FL/IL/TX as well. As the BC moves farther and farther from that original concept I think it will lose some of its appeal.
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JimP
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Ok, I'll bite. How did you throw out Holy Spice and By M K?
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JimP
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There should be a statue of Terry Wallace at Oaklawn.
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JimP
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Was this the same Mike Smith that according to many on this forum always goes around horses? Was that him aggressively forcing his horse through that hole between horses? And getting DQ'ed for being overly aggressive? Must be some other Mike Smith.
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JimP
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And it would be good to know which of those trainers had no experience with preparing a horse to 9+ furlongs.
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JimP
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Comparable hypothetical in another sport: Watering down the basepaths just before the visiting team comes to bat each inning in baseball. Unthinkable in baseball.
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JimP
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Dana, I know it's not worth much but I understood your point about the role of randomness in these matters and how it might be related to Borel's recent Derby results. I think you stated your case very well and I appreciated your contribution to the subject. But you're not likely to ever win this particular argument on this particular board.
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JimP
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That's about how I was viewing him. A nice colt with decent figures. Maybe a good pattern, need to see the figure for the Wood. At this point I'm not sure that there are other contenders to which we can offer much more praise than that. I think he belongs in the Derby with these. As always, it's a crap shoot on which ones will get a trip, and which ones won't. I most likely wo
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JimP
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