Show all posts by user
Thoro-Graph
Note “only†16 P4 and P5 sequences in the two days.
Oaks Day- Friday, April 30, 2021
Race - Post Time - Wagering
1 - 10:30AM - WPS EX TRI SUPER DD P3 P5
2 - 11:00AM - WPS EX TRI SUPER DD P3 P4
3 - 11:30PM - WPS EX TRI SUPER DD P3 P5
4 - 12:05PM - WPS EX TRI SUPER DD P3 P4
5 - 12:43PM - WPS EX TRI SUPER DD P3
6 - 1:26PM - WPS EX TRI SUPER DD P3 DC6
7 - 2:09PM - WPS EX TRI SUPER DD P
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Yes, they first used it in 2020. The gate is something like 15 feet shorter than when they used the auxiliary gate before, so the first post is supposedly not pointing directly into the far turn as it used to do. It is tough to tell but when you look at the replay from 2020 where the first gate is in relation to the rail as the one gate is empty and that might have influenced the gate placement.
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
I know some TG’ers had expressed having some affinity for Known Agenda prior to the draw and the question is how will the rail draw affect his chances? The public seemed to think Lookin at Lucky’s chances in 2010 were severely compromised as he went from the 3/1 morning line favorite to 6/1 – they were right as he had a horrendous trip and is now the poster child for the “bad†rail draw
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
147th Kentucky Derby Field
Post Position-Horse-Jockey-ML Odds
1-Known Agenda-Irad Ortiz Jr.-6-1
2-Like the King-Drayden Van Dyke-50-1
3-Brooklyn Strong-Umberto Rispoli-50-1
4-Keepmeinmind-David Cohen-50-1
5-Sainthood-Corey Lanerie-50-1
6-O Besos-Marcelino Pedroza-20-1
7-Mandaloun-Florent Geroux-15-1
8-Medina Spirit-John Velazquez-15-1
9-Hot Rod Charlie-Flavien Prat-8-1
10-Midnight Bo
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
The Curse of Apollo is often cited when looking at horses entered into the Kentucky Derby without at least one start as a 2YO. This year, Rock Your World, Soup and Sandwich and Sainthood fit that criterion. The argument is that the Kentucky Derby is such a taxing event that horses need the foundation they get as a 2YO in order to compete. Another often cited reason was that it was such a rough r
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
richiebee,
“In the last seven years, the Kentucky Derby was won by Florida Derby winner four times, Santa Anita Derby winner twice and the Arkansas Derby winner once.â€
Perhaps another way to say this could be:
“Four of the last seven Kentucky Derbies were won by California based horses that were undefeated in their 3YO season and the other three were won by Florida based horses that
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Here is a list for the Derby if you want to cut and paste into a document…
Essential Quality (Luis Saez, Brad Cox);
Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat, Doug O'Neill);
Super Stock (Ricardo Santana Jr., Steve Asmussen);
Like the King (Drayden Van Dyke, Wesley Ward);
Known Agenda (Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher);
Rock Your World (Joel Rosario, John Sadler);
Bourbonic (Kendrick Carmou
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
From the Courier review Journal the other day… they noted the “possible†jockeys, but have seen the same lineup other places.
Search Results (Irad Ortiz Jr., Chad Brown)
Travel Column (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox)
Crazy Beautiful (Jose Ortiz, Kenny McPeek)
Pauline’s Pearl (Ricardo Santana Jr., Steve Asmussen)
Malathaat (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher)
Clairiere (Tyler Gaffalione, Stev
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Apparently the connections of Dream Shake decided the Derby was a case of too much too soon and they will go in the Pat day Mile instead on the undercard. Hozier has also been declared out, so as suspected, King Fury now makes the field.
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
According to TDN and Bloodhorse Trainer Brad Cox confirmed Tuesday morning that Shortleaf Stable's GI Arkansas Derby runner-up Caddo River is being aimed at a start in the GI Kentucky Derby.
I think this decision has major implications on two horses in particular. First, he is the key to the race in terms of the pace as he might be the only one still in the field that can run early with R
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
I am pretty sure the connections on Rombauer have decided to pass the Derby.
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Heard that they are on the fence for Caddo River - he may be another more than likely going to the Preakness. That's a tough decision if you train Essential Quality as Caddo River certainly was going to add speed to the field and likely push Rock Your World early. That would give the favorite something to run at. The way it is going, Rock Your World may end up as the lone speed as he ran Med
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
I wondered about one prep horses as well. Looking at one prep going into the Derby did not yield anything too interesting as far as I was concerned. Since the archives go back to 1997, I used that as a starting date and looked through to find any starters with one prep. There were only seven horses that had one prep. Two were from Saeed bin Suroor, four were from Aidan O’Brien and one was from
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Two weeks in early spring to keep twenty 3Y0 healthy? There may be more defections, but perhaps not purposeful. How many times has someone stubbed their toe going into this race? Thousand Words (although that would be of no help to the AE’s at that point), King Guillermo, Finnick the Fierce, Art Collector, Omaha Beach, and Haikal all fairly recently. Plus some past significant scratches such as
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Well according to DRF you are getting pretty close:
1-Essential Quality
2-Hot Rod Charlie
3-Super Stock
4-Like the King
5-Known Agenda
6-Rock Your World
7-Bourbonic
8-Medina Spirit
9-Midnight Bourbon
10-Mandaloun
11-Caddo River
12-Highly Motivated
13-Helium
14-Soup and Sandwich
15-Dynamic One
16-Sainthood
17-Hidden Stash
18-Dream Shake
19-O Besos
20-Get Her Number
21-King F
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
I do not think this will help you at the windows, but I find it interesting. As far as I can tell, negative numbers associated with the Derby were not even a thing before the year 2001 – that’s when Monarchos won with a negative number and Millennium Wind had a negative number for his Blue Grass coming in. The archives do not go back before 1997, but based on the figures of the Derby winners,
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Cannot wait for this year's figures and the seminar....
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
From DRF - Greatest Honour, one of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, is out of the race and will get 60 days off, trainer Shug McGaughey said Wednesday from Florida.
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Another steward's inquiry today with Irad bumping another horse turning for home - another no call.
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
There was a similar incident in my mind last week at GP. The horse on the inside came out a bit in nudged the horse on the outside, the outside horse then leaned back on the inside horse and caused him to check badly. I don't think the outside horse necessarily impedes the inside horse until he comes out and makes the first contact. They did the DQ the outside horse last week. This week the
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
I had the winner in my P5, but not the second place horse and thought he would come down. Was a bit surprised he did not.
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Final Odds at 18/1 with gritty run to be third - $10 show price was good, but painfully not too far from getting the whole enchilada.
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
MIND CONTROL looks a lot like FIRENZE FIRE - if you like one, it is hard to pass on the other. For each one, toss out the off track runs and see what’s left. He has won four races at 7f and the bulk of this millionaire's earnings (70%) have come at this distance. I think his form is a bit dirtied up given Beyer did not give him a number close to his TG figure, so his odds may hold. Given t
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Friday Breeder’ Cup Late P5
10-14
4-5-6-8-12
1-2-3
4-5-12-14
3-7
2x4x3x5x2 = $120
Kee 6. 10-14
GOLDEN PAL fits the profile of the only two winners of this race and owns the fastest figure - however, it does not tower over the field and he is closer to the rest of the field that on most other services. I think he will track outside of Bodenheimer and try to have enough left to hold
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Here is my take: In 2012 and 2013, the Breeder’s Cup outlawed Lasix in 2YO races. All of the Juvenile Turf races were won by Europeans in both years. In fact, those are the only two wins on the filly side. But there is a big difference between last time and this time. In those previous years two-year-olds did race on Lasix during the regular year in the US. This year, none of the two-year-olds
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
TGJeff - Thanks for getting on that quickly.
Is there an easy way to access what credits I have? I know on the purchase page you can see them, but they are often obscured by the the information on daily totals and they run off the page as they are given for each individual meet. It would be great to have a link to them where you could could clearly see what you had.
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Here are the estimated $2 payoffs for the winner of the Pimlico Special (#9 - Harpers First Ride) to the Preakness. Note the DD with morning line favorite #9 Authentic pays just $1.40 less than the DD with #3 Art Collector.
1. 702.40
2. 202.60
3. 49.80
4. 154.80
5. 113.00
6. 916.40
7. 266.40
8. 133.60
9. 48.40
10. 176.20
11. 585.20
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
1. Excession 30-1
2. Mr. Big News 12-1
3. Art Collector 5-2
4. Swiss Skydiver 6-1
5. Thousand Words 6-1
6. Jesus' Team 30-1
7. NY Traffic 15-1
8. Max Player 15-1
9. Authentic 9-5
10. Pneumatic 20-1
11. LiveYourBeastLife 30-1
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts
Well obviously Davis, the rider of Mrs Frankel disagreed because he lodged an objection. And the chart callers really didn't seem to agree either - I have appended the relevant chart notes below. Not sure how the stewards can make the judgment that the incident did not cost the horse a better placing. Once Lovestruck came out and knocked into Mrs Frankel, she seemed to lose any interest, but
by
Molesap
-
Ask the Experts