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Thoro-Graph
I would be absolutely shocked if Benter/his ilk were not creating their own figures, whether actually or effectively (in other words, they may be combining a number of attributes into their formula that would serve as the basis for performance figures without actually producing a figure).
Any information that is publicly available isn't often very valuable - everyone has it after all.
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TempletonPeck
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The suspicion, I think, in this case is that it's a rat-bastard television man to blame.
We rat-bastard lawyers are only willing to take our fair share of the abuse, that's a big enough share as it is. ;-)
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TempletonPeck
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A few thoughts:
1) if this was happening, how would you know? if it was happening, the effect could be to bankrupt one or more of the syndicates to the benefit of one or more of the other syndicates. IOW, the bigger sharks would eat up the little sharks, but the net effect to you could be the same, the big shark now has more money with which to move the market.
2) it wouldn't be too ha
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TempletonPeck
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If such players were so positioned, it would likely be tremendously imprudent for them to post same on a public forum.
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TempletonPeck
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A personal favorite, in the same vein: Pierre Trudeau, when asked how he felt about the revelation that Nixon had called him an 'a--hole,' and a 'pompous egghead,' replied, "I've been called worse things by better people."
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TempletonPeck
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sekrah Wrote:
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> It's practically impossible to make a perfect
> adjustment. If you try to get it too precise, you
> risk getting it totally wrong.
This, taken in combination with some of the things you've said in other threads (for instance, comments to the effect that a smart handicapper watches the replay of Alway
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TempletonPeck
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If so, when do we expect it to be available?
TIA.
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TempletonPeck
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I have a chef friend, who runs one of these places where the idea is they serve high-brow bar food, a 'gastropub.'
One day I ordered his take on the Big Mac, which he calls the Mack Daddy. He sat down beside me, end of his shift, we're having a beer. That day I wanted to put some of the french fries on the burger, as I sometimes do. But, with him sitting there as I ate, I paused
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TempletonPeck
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The fact that these things can't be measured to your satisfaction doesn't mean they don't exist, it just means you aren't satisfied.
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TempletonPeck
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Thunder Snow's performance rating may be "8 seconds" ;-)
I feel entitled to this joke as I was one of those who lost money trying to BUCK the Dubai Derby -> KY Derby trend. I'll see myself out...
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TempletonPeck
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jbrown007 Wrote:
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> I wouldn't consider that anectodal evidence. I am
> using actual evidence just not as broad as Jerry
> pulled because it doesn't relate to the horses I
> am looking at. A horse coming fourth of bench is
> different then third etc. That is my opinion.
> Doesn't mean the evidence is fa
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TempletonPeck
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This is the letter definition of anecdotal evidence.
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TempletonPeck
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Another very telling example:
Practical Joke -150 vs. Gormley +120 (both are 12/1 at the same book..)
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TempletonPeck
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IWC -135 vs. Always Dreaming +105.
Opened IWC -110 if I remember correctly.
Edit: That's a head to head prop (don't have to win race, just beat the other horse) posted at Wynn.
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TempletonPeck
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You would be happy to lay 13.5/1 on IWC?
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TempletonPeck
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There's a joke in here somewhere about Pete's redboard post being such a big new top and then a bounce being predictable and his view on sheet theory... just gimme a second...
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TempletonPeck
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Agree with all your points, and would note additionally that while many are saying "Wilkes can point to a race!" We should not forget that this horse was injured following the Sam Davis and it's entirely possible (likely, even) that this was not the plan Wilkes had in mind on January 1st.
Conceivable he runs a new top and doesn't hit the board.
7/1 in Las Vegas but 12/1
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TempletonPeck
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Agree re State of Honor, and I believe Casse said something to that effect after his workout 4/28.
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TempletonPeck
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Do you think of your TG posts as a tryout for a TVG guest spot?
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TempletonPeck
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Stayin' alive!
"I am delighted to report that Cassini shot through the gap just as we planned and has come out the other side in excellent shape,"
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TempletonPeck
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You used 'intangible' in two headings, and you want to make Zapruder film jokes?
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TempletonPeck
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I just watched the Arkansas Derby a few times, and noticed that a few jumps before the wire, Classic Empire switched back to his 'wrong' lead.
Anyone make anything of that?
FWIW, it does not appear to me he did so in either the Holy Bull or the BC Juvenile.
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TempletonPeck
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"Outwork still owes me money!"
Two words to spare! ;-)
Seriously though, his sheet isn't a perfect match for Outwork's, but a few things in common, very early 2yo start, exiting the Wood, pattern that may suggest improvement, trained by Pletcher.
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TempletonPeck
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SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> one common answer is that if
> the horse is being ignored at the betting windows,
> give him the benefit of the doubt in the direction
> of a better 2yo top, if he is being overbet at the
> windows, then don't give him that benefit and
> assume a worse 2yo top.
I'd be careful with this
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TempletonPeck
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jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Of course, the other point of view is that he will
> just go as fast as he needs to.
This "fast as he needs to!" reminds me of a funny story that most probably have never heard, so in an effort to alleviate the mood, here we go:
Many moons ago JB Holmes, from small-town Kentucky, is playing a practic
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TempletonPeck
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Sorry, poor use of quotation marks.
Just wanted to distinguish that those statistics discussed all starters vs. only those coming off a bounce/off/X/whatever.
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TempletonPeck
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BitPlayer Wrote:
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> I can't swear to the accuracy of my hand-entered
> data, but for horses that have run at least two
> points worse than their top in their last prep (a
> sample of 70), I get:
>
> New top: 4.3%
> Pair: 12.9%
> Off: 32.8%
> X: 50%
For reference, the "all derby starters"
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TempletonPeck
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