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Thoro-Graph
I think you can trust his and the owners' lust for money, at least. The horse is worth a great deal of money whether he starts in the Preakness or not. If the horse breaks his leg in the Preakness, he is worth.... significantly less!
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TempletonPeck
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I cooked 15 pounds of prime steak for 20 of my closest friends, and we went through a case of 2005 California Cabs, including multiple cult super 100 pointers that you are expected to be supremely jealous of. I won $500 on the turf race that finished 6 - 9 - 3, and then lost it all on the Derby. We smoked cigars once the sun went down, and when we woke up Sunday we were all still friends.
Huge
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TempletonPeck
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Is the last race a negative figure? Doesn't have the usual "neg #" notation, just double-checking.
Thanks.
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TempletonPeck
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I know my life would be better if we could sign up from Nevada!
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TempletonPeck
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Your house, but with TGPS up they're at least an indirect competitor.
Anyway, I refer myself back to "Your house," and see myself out.
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TempletonPeck
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Honestly, I kind of admire the chutzpah it takes to just show up 1-3 times/year to tout a competitor product!
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TempletonPeck
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"2018 Kentucky Derby / Oaks
Audiovisual Seminar - $25*
Available Wednesday evening, 2 May
(check website for availability)
The Kentucky Derby
The Kentucky Oaks
The Pat Day
Churchill Down Stakes
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes
The Derby/Oaks section will include Jerry Brown's detailed,
horse-by-horse comments and full sheets.
The analysis of the three undercard
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TempletonPeck
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Molesap Wrote:
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> Mendelssohn – was gunned to the lead ... Unlikely to
> press.
> Magnum Moon – wired Arkansas Derby ... Unlikely to press.
> Justify – the most likely to put on a bit of
> heat early based on PP’s ... Unlikely
> to press.
> Enticed – early pace figures put him near the
> top ... Unl
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TempletonPeck
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For what it's worth, I think it's prudent to look further back than just the 3yo season.
That said, you asked a specific question, so here's a specific answer: to me, the paired 3's are better - and it isn't close. One horse is already faster (however slightly), and you have some evidence that it can repeat that performance.
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TempletonPeck
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I won't be betting him to win. Were I in England, staring down 9/2, might I feel differently? Thankfully, I do not have to stare long into that particular abyss!
4th race (of 4, lifetime) in 11 weeks. A 3rd "op-" notation could result in Money/Wide Mike (depends on the result, of course!) facing the choice to use some, or to try something he hasn't tried before.
I am tre
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TempletonPeck
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I think it's, as has become usual, a pretty good first pass at it!
IMO, Magnum Moon will be (significantly) shorter than you have him - he wasn't even 17.5/1 in LV before the Arkansas Derby (~10/1). Presently 5/1. I think ~8/1 on the day. Longer than Audible, but shorter than Good Magic or Bolt D'Oro.
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TempletonPeck
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If I were you, and I wanted this information, here's what I might do:
Go to the Redboard Room, and download (for free!) the TGs from Oaklawn's Saturday races. You'll have Magnum Moon's sheet, which has the following stats for TAP bringing horses back in 11-29 days: 4724 starts, wins at 24%, ITM 55% (vs. 24% wins and 54% ITM overall), with 15% tops and 32% pairs (vs. 17% and
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TempletonPeck
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I don't know the answer to your question, but this seems like relevant reading:
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TempletonPeck
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I've never met him or heard anything positive or negative about him, but I'm sure he's as nice a guy as you say (and you'll note I didn't say anything to the contrary), and as able in a bar fight, for whatever that could possibly be worth.
I was only trying to point out that I thought it was poor form to discuss what sounds like a competing product on a forum hosted (r
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TempletonPeck
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I'd say Derek Simon should probably think about opening up his own forum. Sounds like he'd have one member at least.
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TempletonPeck
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"We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold..."
Derby fever strikes without warning, and strikes hard... ;-)
Re Cloud Computing, he was on the work tab somewhat recently (2/19):
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TempletonPeck
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Appeared to me from the text messages in the article they may have noticed a pattern in the testing - if you hadn't been tested by 40 MTP, you weren't going to be tested. OTOH, maybe they just wanted it close-ish to race time for maximum effect, I'm just guessing.
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TempletonPeck
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Strike Wrote:
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>
> OK -- name another.
>
> Masochistic was tranquilized in the maiden race
> before the race on KY Derby day. Who does that --
> and Avila was caught after the win. He went off as
> the favorite in the race so nobody was fooled
> (including me). If you are suggesting Assmussen is
> doing
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TempletonPeck
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Strike Wrote:
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> No connections run their horse with the intention
> of losing.
I didn't comment on the frequency of this, but if you think it's 0%, you're out of your mind. My favorite recent example is Masochistic being stiffed at SA before the big takedown on Derby day, which I've cited here previously.
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TempletonPeck
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Difference, IMO is whether he was trying to win the race or not. If he was, then it's on you to suss out whether that is a likely outcome given horse/trainer previous tendencies, and whatever other info you can get.
But, if he is entering with the intention to lose, then it's a fraud.
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TempletonPeck
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johng032 Wrote:
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> with horses in form or rounding into form
I think the entire objection can be summed up here - you assume these horses are either a) in form, or b) rounding into form, and I have no idea why you think that's a safe assumption.
Seems pretty obvious to me that the bottom level races on a day near or on a hug
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TempletonPeck
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Are you suggesting their stock price has a close relationship with their raising takeout?
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TempletonPeck
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I'd prefer if the gift was a price increase to $1000/track/day but maybe I'm just a contrarian.
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TempletonPeck
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FrankD. Wrote:
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> In an effort to cure my parimutuel withdraw I’m
> jumping in feet first for Friday & Saturday. It
> started Sunday night with some casual looking
> leading to texts and conversations with Miff,
> Jimbo, Bee, Uncle Bill & the misguided
> Fairmount😇 My blood is reaching a slow boil.
>
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TempletonPeck
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jbelfior Wrote:
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> Not going to use the board to argue.
I thought that was the whole point!
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TempletonPeck
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Agree, and would add, how many of those 60+ day layoffs were un/planned?
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TempletonPeck
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TempletonPeck Wrote:
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> adjust the figures for particularly fast or slow paces, as TG suggests
Instead of "adjust the figures," I think I should have written "account for." I'm starting to appreciate the value of a good editor..
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