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Thoro-Graph
To flesh this out a bit more, yes, I think it makes sense to sort of adjust the figures for particularly fast or slow paces, as TG suggests.
That said, I'd recommend being careful though when it comes to adjusting the figures.
For a more thorough discussion of the pitfalls/positives of figure-adjusting, you may want to refer to the many threads on Always Dreaming from the Derby run-up
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TempletonPeck
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Specifically, see: "s_pace - Unusually slow pace"
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TempletonPeck
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I don't know, but I'm starting to think Mazur may have hired some Russian robot accounts.
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TempletonPeck
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dsipes Wrote:
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> I doubt anyone can show 20 years of positive ROI.
I also doubt it! This should provoke you to ask yourself why you'd pay him for it.
> His model has been very successful at previous
> Breeders Cups.
But not so successful as to be a money-maker?
> I know his model doesn't jive with
> t
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TempletonPeck
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Now we are looking at hindsight/confirmation bias, IOW, results-oriented thinking - "If he won a pick 6, his profile/rules model must be good!"
The opposing position can be boiled down to, "Even a broken clock is right twice a day." The fact that he won a pick 6 that you're aware of is not evidence he's profitable, let alone that his model works. It's only ev
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TempletonPeck
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Incoming assertion alert!
I think you have a pretty big selection bias problem when you say "5 year olds don't win the Classic!" (Reminds me of a recent thread where the idea of coming up with rules vs. pre-requisites vs. guiding principles was discussed.)
Because most really good horses get retired after 3 or 4, you probably won't see a lot of 5 year old Classic winners
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TempletonPeck
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I appreciate your eagerness to get into the weeds, but if you look in the store you'll see there is no data available for the Arc.
So, not much to discuss.
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TempletonPeck
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What race would he enter other than the Dirt Mile?
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TempletonPeck
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Agree, and would add that IMO it is much better (also much more difficult and time consuming), to look for trends/qualifiers/etc. of horses that ran well vs. just winners.
As an example, when I fall down the rabbit hole each year, and look back at the last 5-10-20 Derbies, I am looking at the horses that won or ran fast enough to win if they'd benefited from an average trip.
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TempletonPeck
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Will not be attending this year, sadly, but went the last two years.
A few words of advice:
1) Get your return train ticket in advance! If you stay for the last race on Arc day, or even the last G1 (IIRC, the arc will be 5th or 6th race of 9 or so, with 1-2 G1's after it), you're going to be hard pressed to buy a ticket and make the train. This will likely leave you waiting 2-2.5
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TempletonPeck
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SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> I stand abjectly chastised by this result. I
> could not have been more wrong about this race.
> The only silver lining is that, If i have to be
> wrong, i want to be wrong because a 6-5 shot won.
> But man, before the race, that horse sure did not
> look like it belonged to be 6-5.
Before th
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TempletonPeck
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I just watched the replay (again) and I don't know what aspect of 1w1w for Uni (or 3w3w for La Coronel, for that matter) could reasonably be debated.
What do you see?
I get that Uni fanned 19 wide into the lane, but she travelled both turns on the wood.
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TempletonPeck
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Some pretty incredible images in the second link.
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TempletonPeck
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Glad to "see" you topside.
Our people all made it through unscathed - spent two nights at the shelter and came home to a messy yard, but nary a scratch or bruise on anyone's person.
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TempletonPeck
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Strap in tight Tavasco. Projections seem to be moving the storm closer to Clearwater.
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TempletonPeck
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The model, IMO, is there, it's lower takeout, higher quality product. For example, Hong Kong, Kentucky Downs, etc.
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TempletonPeck
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Will TG products be available for the Kentucky Downs meet?
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TempletonPeck
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FrankD. Wrote:
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> Note to BBB:
> Jockeys are human beings that have names. I guess
> if you take the train to Del Mar you call all the
> attendants George like they did 100 years ago.
> A real CLASS act is the boards resident competent
> capper.
>
> FD
Hear, hear.
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TempletonPeck
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I wonder how long some lesser trainer at some lesser circuit would get away with running 3 of 5 horses uncoupled with these strange moves, before a boycott was called for?
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Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> I am certain that video was meant sarcastically.
> Jorge Navarro is a known horseman's horseman who
> gets to the track earlier than anyone else, works
> harder than anyone else, and cares for his horses
> more than the other trainers. With a guy like
> Jorge, it isn't about the money;
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TempletonPeck
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I think you're looking at this backwards.
The more oddball races that are in a sequence, the more demanding the handicapping is, the greater the advantage the sharp player has over the field.
You should wish that no race in the sequence had a single thing in common with another race. Make the public solve 5 *totally* different puzzles to hit a pick-5, and see what the payouts look like
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TempletonPeck
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Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> This idea that you can scrub the
> pools for underbet numbers and win ,is in my
> opinion, a fantasy.
Why do you find it implausible that one could shop for under-bet numbers and make money by finding them?
Isn't that what a zillion stock traders/sports bettors/real estate speculators/etc. are
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TempletonPeck
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philywheel Wrote:
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> I am too good a capper to be in such a prolonged
> slump
At least the slump hasn't drained your confidence ;-)
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TempletonPeck
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Congrats to your brother! Nearly got 9/2 so congrats to you also!
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TempletonPeck
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Who watches the watchers?
I got a D in Latin, so forgive me if the person I lifted this from misquoted:
"Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?"
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jbelfior Wrote:
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> Which ones are you NOT going to wager serious (or
> any) money on? Why not?
>
> Arlington
> Churchill
> Fair Grounds
> Aqueduct
> Golden Gate
> Monmouth Park
> Parx
> Gulfstream
> Laurel
> Delaware
> Penn National
> Tampa
> Woodbine
These tracks get $0 f
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On the plus side, his retirement brought Maggie out of her Twitter hiatus. Much to the relief of all, I'm sure!
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