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ajkreider Wrote:
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> No disagreement on his talent, and the way things
> have been in recent years, two starts before the
> Derby shouldn't be an impediment.
>
> I guess I've just got a different philosophy on
> future wagers. The comparison doesn't seem to be
> with the top two (that are almost
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alm
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I gave this one a lot of thought because of the abrupt change. At one point in her career I would have called her cheap speed, because she generally gave it up under pressure. Her age is a definite questionmark. However, she was lightly raced, suggesting there was one or more physical problems. I don't know whether or not Bonde is suspect, but a good trainer is one who keeps trying to fi
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alm
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I'm hoping this guy does NOT win the Rebel, which may boost the odds in the final future pool. I know nothing repeats itself exactly (except for the Giants-Pats) but Pletcher's come this way before. If the horse also loses the Ark Derby, who knows what trackside odds you'll get in Louisville.
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alm
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Well, I have zero insight on why the horse hasn't appeared yet. However, if you are right and 23-1 is short, it's short for a reason. Until there's a story about problems with this one, I have to assume someone likes him. My point was that given what we know, he's my best bet against the two top horses in the future pools. That's all.
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alm
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At this early point in the prep season you have very little to work with in terms of looking for the bigger priced Derby horse. For sure, you won't get decent odds on Hansen or Union Rags in the Future pools. If there is a logical longer priced runner, you've got to look at Gemologist, who's actually won at Churchill. Not at the biggest numbers as a two year old, but you will be
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alm
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He's an embarrassment to his father, who trained a couple for me.
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alm
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Nice horse, beat a bunch of sprinters and slow slugs, big deal. If he scares off any quality stock and beats up again on the local colony in the FLA Derby, he's a bet against favorite in Kentucky.
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alm
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Niall Wrote:
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> Going down for the Risen Star weekend ... Any
> "must know" tips regarding the visit would be most
> appreciated ...
You can eat in a million places there, but know that the locals stand on line for an hour to get into Galatoire's in the Quarter. There are no reservations. It's worth it.
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alm
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justwin Wrote:
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> I like Hymm Book. New small top in last getting a
> TG pt from Flat Out and Flat Out is not at his
> best. Plenty of speed in race so race style,
> current form & decent odds (expect 6-1) make HB my
> key. Will play with Flat Out, Redeemed, Where's
> Sterling. I'm slightly concerned tha
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alm
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David Milch is I believe an admitted compulsive gambler. That's ok. He can produce whatever he wants, whenever he wants, but if racing is just the 'dark game' he is including in his show, I must have been missing something these past 50 years. For every trainer who fits the profile of the 2 in this show I'll introduce you to 10 who are normal human beings and are 'stan
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alm
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One can quibble with the production values, acting, realism, etc, but at the end of the day the storyline is most important to me. These folks clearly thought their best shot was to look at the seediest aspect of the game, which is ok...except I'm not interested and I don't think most marginal viewers will be.
Another choice would have been to focus on the highest interest part of
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alm
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I have been a Jets fan from Day One and wiped out an entire room of Colt fans in Namath's Super Bowl. However, Ryan can do all the coaching you want and they still won't win with Sanchez. You can't coach a guy to throw straight and you can't coach guts. This guy is about a foot off in critical situations and he has fear in his eyes constantly. They should have hired Sparan
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alm
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Hansen - 12 years ago
Hansen's the champ, but he probably could not have fallen into a tougher spot to debut as a 3yo. He's the likely winner, but he has to run at his best at least to beat the two Bernardinis, who are improving. And there won't be a breather for him in this one. He's got to go all out all the way against this small crowd.
I lean towards Consortium who lost his last, but impr
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alm
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Yes, but.
Duke has had a handful of slow races in the past year...knowing Fawkes this doesn't inspire confidence. Turbo looked like a million bucks on the track in his last, but is too short and didn't beat much there anyway. Mucho will help make this race and may win it, but I think Ron the Greek is the fun horse to consider here. Fast enough on his best, training at Payson, whic
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alm
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Re: ROW - 12 years ago
Good luck, but Pomeroy is possibly faster, had a good race over the track and is working lights out at a facility where many better horses train. Mom is coming off the strange Tampa surface she obviously loves, is no faster and will be pressed by others. Musical is 0 for 4 at Gulfstream, drifted in her big win and has to come in off training alone. Pomeroy.
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alm
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In this playoff run the Giants have been making quarterbacks miss by challenging their passing lanes, not by pressuring them. Rogers was off by a foot to a foot and a half making it appear his receivers were just dropping the ball. The third rate SF quarterback missed a lot of passes by about two feet to two and a half feet even when he had time. Watch the video.
The SF blitz surely affecte
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alm
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The Giants just beat the best quarterback in football by altering his passing routes just slightly. They suffered 2 horrendous calls by the refs that resulted in a net scoring turnaround of 10 points, at least. Without those calls it was a crush.
SF's far less effective QB doesn't have a chance throwing against that pass rush and secondary. None.
SF's only chance is on th
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alm
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How is the analysis doing at Gulfstream...honestly?
I haven't been betting seriously, just P3s and P4s and have consistently come up one race short. I need THAT horse.
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alm
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You should take it as a positive sign...no one on this board can tell you otherwise...I'm going to bet the horse just because you brought it up.
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alm
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Investing alongside Frank Stronach, now that's a novel twist. FFC. Just ask the group of investors he bankrupted at Gulfstream a few years ago.
All this sounds like is a novel way of avoiding selling your breeding mistakes at the sales. You get a bunch of willing morons to help you syndicate them.
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alm
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ROTW - 12 years ago
The Malibu always seems to be a tough race to handicap...I lived in SoCal for a long time and had my moments, but never in this race.
This is certainly an odd one...one way to look at the race, Baffert is going to suck up a lot of money, making all other payouts richer if his don't run.
Asmussen has 3 competitive...lack of conviction or trying to take the whole pot?
A nice ROTW an
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alm
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Races - 12 years ago
Anybody want to talk about an upcoming race?
Friday, Gulfstream 9th.
Favorite likely to be Adios Charlie, but if he's not ready and this one is competitive, Uptowncharlybrown may be ready and is just about fast enough close to his best. For what it's worth Maragh takes him and may have had a choice between the two.
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alm
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Apart from our leader, doesn't anyone here talk about the races anymore?
I'll throw out this one...today's Gulfstream 7th.
The 1, 2 and 11 appear to have the best numbers. The 11 maybe the best; the 2 next...both were wide in their good, unimpeded efforts.
Barring a jump up, which is not unusual at Gulfstream...these I will box for an exactly.
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alm
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Mission Impazible is slower than others in here, but is better rested and returns to his best surface. Wise Dan would worry me...likes all surfaces although may be a touch better on grass and synth...but gets a bad draw. Most of the others should have been given more than 3 weeks off their tough preparation for the tough BC races. Opinions?
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alm
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They all need training to build bone, but what happens once they begin racing all depends on the horse. Some are softboned and it doesn't matter how much they are coddled...they will go bad. Those that can withstand training, in my limited personal experience, need a racing regimen like Jerry suggests once they get underway. Their bones keep reforming for quite some time and without subst
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alm
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Guys, I understand and appreciate everything you've said here.
However, leading up to this race many on this board described the liklihood of failure for just about everyone else in the race. Some had distance limitations, some were likely to bounce, some trained like crap, some didn't train on the track, etc, etc.
They were right and this horse not only ran good, but he ran a ne
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alm
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Mike
I know you have a low opinion of the horse, but did you read Mott's description of everything he did with it from the Belmont Stakes on? Pretty clear explanation of slow numbers, etc, leading up to the race he was pointed for...this Classic. Mott certainly didn't follow a normal path, which might have led to more races, more money won, better and worse numbers along the way...
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alm
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Judging from the lack of post mortems here, I am guessing not too many of us did very well at the BC.
I came this close to entering the BC Handicapping Contest, only to back out at the last minute because it mainly stressed vertical bets. I would have a problem picking a tri if you spotted me the first two horses and banned me from hitting the ALL button for the third.
So I only had two ho
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alm
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Happy? - 12 years ago
All of you who wanted so badly to have them fix that dead rail...well it looks like they overcompensated, no? Better take the golden rail into account the rest of the day. Is this a better outcome?
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alm
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