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ajkreider Wrote:
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> Baffert seemed to suggest just the opposite
> sentiment today. Said he's wished he'd waited
> until today for Eden's Moon's work, as the track
> yesterday (dry) was so deep and taxing.
Guys, I can't explain why Baffert would say this or that, but I have watched Churchill for
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alm
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Hey pal, you are very strange, but that's what makes the world go round. Did it every occur to you they worked Alpha that fast to make up for the lost time Covello described here a few days ago? And is that the best way to prep a horse for ANY race? I liked the horse more before this work. He may be far too eager for a 10 furlong race at this point.
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alm
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Waiting for TG's Derby analysis, I had this simple thought...take your shots at it.
The top 4 finishers in the BC Juvenile are all making it back to Churchill for the Derby, which is probably unusual. No injuries or critical setbacks from there to here. No reason to assume they won't tangle again.
New horses on the scene who look threatening to them include Bode, IHA and Gem. I
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alm
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Please forgive me for overreacting. I'm from Brooklyn.
But let me put this another way. Let's say I came on this site and announced I had discovered a 'method' for picking Derby winners that was 80% effective. Let's say I called it the Italian Consigliere Methodologie.
Under the ICM, if a horse ran fast as a 2yo and ran fast as a 3yo one month before the Derby an
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alm
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Please save your brain and your time....this is such a statistical quagmire and, ultimately, such utter bull. It's infantile and irrelevant. It pretends the Derby is some kind of search for a Holy Grail. It is not. It is a horse race; a real life contest between mammals of a certain species. There's no mumbo jumbo here. I think we are interested in TG because it is a 'science
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alm
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Forgive me for disagreeing...in this case the numbers do lie. For example, do you know what percentage of thoroughbred horses born in the world fit the 'correct' dosage pattern and what percentage do not? That is, at any given time, since the classic sires list has changed over the years? I have bred about 65 horses during my life and most of them fit within the classic dosage catego
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alm
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By dual qualifier system, do you mean the dosage system? Which gets changed after about every other Derby to back fill the Derby winners who didn't qualify in advance???? Or do you have your own take on some subject that has the same name?
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alm
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I hit Silver Charm too. In fact, I hit the tri, thanks to one Jerry Brown who was quoted in the Racing Form KY Derby edition, giving four names, three of which ran one, two, three. Won lots of money. Thanks to Jerry, the not-horse-whisperer.
What on earth is going on in this blog? People are either trying to form metaphorical comparisons with races run decades ago or they are all looking f
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alm
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When I was a kid I 'handicapped' my first Derby and picked Northern Dancer, which I suppose makes this guy even with me. You wouldn't have want to bet my pick the next year however.
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alm
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I won't try to guess which one Jerry was talking about, but Summer Applause has a chart that might suggest a jump. And the trainer is solid, consistent. Moquett's trainer profile suggests his filly stands a good chance of regressing.
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alm
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Guys, I don't think you have to spend a lot more time thinking about this issue. The horse has some sort of problem...back, shins, whatever. He but backed up in his last race, even though he won. Likely, the problem won't go away before the Derby and he's likely to back up some more. Isn't this what the patterns are supposed to be telling us in the first place? I could be
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alm
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I appreciate Sightsound's insight and am not questioning it. But I suspect that trainers put this stuff into their routine primarily for ONE reason...to deaden pain in order to train and/or race. It's my guess that this horse had some problem, maybe it was shins, and needed the help to get through training that was significant enough to prepare him for the SA Derby.
Look, you can t
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alm
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"Good sports therapy?"
That's a very odd way to describe it. Deadening a horse's back, ankle, whatever...so it can train and maybe so it can run isn't therapy in my book. Forewarned is forearmed. Bet this horse at your own peril.
By the way, bettors are betting horses treated like this every day because they aren't on any vet list.
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alm
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Beau Wrote:
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> Kenny McPeek was just asked about I'll Have
> Another's issue on twitter and he replied
> shockwave is used for bone growth and healing. He
> said he does not use it, he gives them time.
Beau, I don't know you and I don't want this to sound like a wise guy. That statement is utter bull
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alm
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Let me tell you if this horse needs this kind of therapy it doesn't mean anything good. There are other legal devices that can be used to promote healing by stimulating blood flow, but shock wave is intended by a trainer to allow a horse to run through pain. No matter what some pie in the sky vet has to say about its beneficial use. If the trainer can't administer it ahead of a race,
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alm
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What's most interesting is that he ignores the material after he quotes a lot of it.
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alm
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If Covelli is right about Alpha (see his post) it's pretty clear that Dominguez was told he was without a mount...he may have lucked on to a far better horse. If the sprinter runs as they said he would, I would think twice about trading places with Dominguez.
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alm
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Was Hansen's Blue Grass really a regression? On the surface of it, yes, but it was the fastest poly number he earned...significantly faster. What if Hansen is a dirt horse that is compromised on poly? Does he have the opportunity here to move forward pretty significantly from the slower BG number...perhaps closer to his best dirt number, which would make him very dangerous in here? If th
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alm
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Can someone tell me what the "gd h?" next to Gemologist's number for the Gulfstream allowance race means?
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alm
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Divebombers might want to take a look at Grand Illumination in Keeneland's 8th today....ML 30-1. It's a tough race and the horse probably can't handle the field...am thinking however it could be a major jump up on grass,which puts the horse in the mix.
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alm
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It all depends upon how you bet the race. If I felt the way you do I would stay away from him on horizontals, but not necessarily on verticals. I appreciate your comment on Julien. The ride in Florida was difficult to watch. However, the guy is a premier jockey and I do not think he is a liability on ANY horse. Jerry had an earlier post on Dixie Unions and their development, which might be m
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alm
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Michael D. Wrote:
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> Baffert's most successful Derby horses did not
> come in off big tops. POTN came in off a 0.5 top,
> War Emblem a pair, Real Quiet a 0.5 top, and
> Silver Charm a pair. The closest thing to a big
> top and a good finish was Congaree, who ran off a
> 2.5 top and paired. All the other tops led
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alm
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I wrote this post to get the discussion going, not because I put these two in the same category. So much of what we write here looks back on previous races and it's all pretty irrelevant. I am happy that the smartest guys on the site responded with lots of good thinking.
Personally, I don't care if Bodemeister got the fastest time of anyone coming into this race. At this point I am
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alm
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I've cautioned against looking backwards into history to interpret today's forward look into the Derby picture, but why don't we consider a possible reference point for Bodemeister's big win this past weekend. Check out comparisons to Sinister Minister...the popup big Blue Grass winner six years ago. The horse had Baffert, a one race form improvement, and a big, big flop in
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alm
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The fantasy trifecta that's about a billion to one.
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alm
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Hey listen, we all make mistakes. This Sunday I bet exclusively horizontal on 15 races (Keeneland, SA) never using more than 4 horses in the sequence. I hit 13 winners, 2 cold supers, 3 tris, 3 exactas in separate races......and broke even for the day when the losers broke some potentially good p3s and 4s. Oh well.
Regarding Union Rags and his odds, I don't think there's any way h
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alm
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richiebee Wrote:
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> So its 1964 and Howard Cosell and Cassius Clay are
> stopped at a red light in
> downtown Louisville. An attractive blonde woman
> crosses in front of their car and
> Clay catches Cosell staring at her.
>
> "Cosell, you're crazy. You're Jewish. They'll kill
> you in thi
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alm
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Agreed...he will show up with the acorn again...then watch out.
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alm
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A very nice string of posts. Certainly, correctly assessing the Ark Derby is going to be the single most important decision anyone will have to make in putting together a bet on the KY Derby. Having said that, I don't think we can assess what Arkansas means by looking back on what we think are comparable situations that occurred years ago, as opposed to looking forward at what we think the
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alm
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Dark Bay Wrote:
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> Loved Prospective's Tampa Bay Derby. Blinkers
> have made him a different horse. Lots of early
> types in the BG, great post and a pedigree that is
> begging for more ground. Hero of Order's last
> was no fluke but he may get a wide trip. I'll
> still use him underneath Prospect
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