I just saw this in an article that came up on Yahoo. DORTMUND - Earlier in his career, he stalked the pace and came from behind to win. ''The worst thing you can do is take him back and get him behind a wall of horses,'' Baffert said.by HP - Ask the Experts
I think he will not be the wiseguy horse and he will be more than 20-1, unless he puts in some lightning works. In this field, with all the knocks, big players will be off him because of slower figs, can't win from Dubai, no lasix, etc.by HP - Ask the Experts
Bodemeister ran his guts out. Stupendous performance. Reminded me a lot of Closing Argument who attended a similar pace and turned in a totally underrated race, probably because people thought Giacomo was such a fluke winner.by HP - Ask the Experts
Post draw will be huge as it may force some to get out quick and others to try to relax and get position, depending on where they are. It's hard for me to see anyone here getting an easy lead but I suppose anything is possible.by HP - Ask the Experts
Last thought for 2nite. Given how crappy Baffert does with horses on three weeks rest I may toss both of them even though it looked like Victor could have taken a nap at the end.by HP - Ask the Experts
Wow, started this thread and went to a dinner for work. I've quickly read through all of this and I guess what I see is a lot of the fastest horses like to run the same kind of race. Pace collapse seems like a real possibility. That said it's going to be hard to bite on some of the closers in here that seem slower going in and I also think it's possible one of the pacesetters wiby HP - Ask the Experts
Any early thoughts on pace as a way to separate these?by HP - Ask the Experts
I could easily see it as a negative. Maybe he goes out there and gets banged around and says "what the hell is this?!?"by HP - Ask the Experts
It's a good question. I ask myself if that is going to happen in the Derby and the answer is a resounding no. He is not going to walk away from nobodies with Victor sitting there like a statue. And even if he was in hand, he still made an effort to run fast and that counts. I have to wonder what happens if he gets bounced around or finds himself boxed in.by HP - Ask the Experts
I'm not looking at the sheets yet because I always overthink it. If Materiality can pair last and win and the price is right and he looks good, I could see that. If he needs to move forward to win that may be a different story. Ten points and needing a forward move is tough.by HP - Ask the Experts
Thanks sekrah, I think they can also explode to that huge number too soon as a 3yo and not get back to it, Itsmyluckyday is a good example. So there may be "too much development too young?"by HP - Ask the Experts
Orb and I'll Have Another both had big numbers that could win the Derby early in their 3yo year. The "too much development" thing is really about a shorter timeframe. Like if a horse moved up 5-7 points from say, February to April, I might think that's it for now. I wouldn't necessarily measure it from 2yo top, but some people do.by HP - Ask the Experts
Right. I'll go on record now, without seeing sheets, as liking MubT. I'm not going to learn how to type that one for awhile.by HP - Ask the Experts
This is exactly what I'm talking about in my last post on another thread. I apologize but I know how TG makes figures, this is the kind of stuff I'm interested in.by HP - Ask the Experts
And no eating late at night! Cut off food at seven. I dropped 12 pounds in a month without much effort at all. End of diet story. This makes me think of jockeys. Those guys must go through hell. And I miss "Luck." It was just getting good. Consoling myself by rolling through "Louie" on Netflix. I watched a bunch of prep races on YouTube. How do you guys see tby HP - Ask the Experts
Jim you need to drink lots of water. Not drinking beer will help you lose weight, but drinking the water will maximize your results. My wife is a nutritionist.by HP - Ask the Experts
My Derby record is not great but there was nothing wrong with going against Big Brown. Fastest horse but very lightly raced at a short price, definitely a bounce candidate. Some of us remember Talking Man. California Chrome was not the fastest horse last year and at that price I'd bet against him again.by HP - Ask the Experts
Come on. It's like wanting Kareem and getting "stuck" with Wilt? It's not a night and day difference is it? Do you think JV has seen CDiem recently? I don't know anything about how they do this.by HP - Ask the Experts
Can't top this so it's time to go home!by HP - Ask the Experts
Jerry I wonder if Eliot meant to call YOU a "nice man" and it got mixed up with this Evans guy?by HP - Ask the Experts
But if he picks Materiality that is another plus for you. Clear. Look forward to what you see, I rode some horses (on trails!) and took care of a few but I really don't know what the hell I'm looking at. Ledbetter I ain't.by HP - Ask the Experts
Just to be clear, I did not make that list. And I don't know about other horses and who the vets were.by HP - Ask the Experts
You always have good insights. I usually toss the Pletchers but I will listen to you. The one year I used a Pletcher horse it was Invisible Ink (!) but I did not have Monarchos and got nothing. Extending your current observation to their logical conclusion it really doesn't matter who JV picks in terms of who you like? You are just curious? Because if he picked Carpe Diem it wouldn&by HP - Ask the Experts
I hear you Jim and love your posts. I'm sorry but the drug thing matters when the money goes in, and going against Pletcher in the big dance has worked out a lot of the time. I hate having to think about it but it's there, and it's real.by HP - Ask the Experts
I got the info I wanted, thanks. Let me know how this thread goes. Now you got me thinking. The only time Pletcher won the Derby was with Borel. The only time Johnny V won was when he rode for another trainer. My 4/20 line says Materialty (Pletcher/GP horse) + JV = another loser for JV. I'm curious as to how many Pletcher horses have finished up the track in the Derby with JV iby HP - Ask the Experts
Okay. I'll clear the floor since you've decided this is more important.by HP - Ask the Experts
No offense but what difference does it make to you what other people want to talk about? You can change the topic anytime and you can skip strings and posts you aren't interested in without knocking other people? I'll go you one better. Between JV, Castellano and Mike Smith, you think whoever rides which horse is going to be a decisive factor? Post position might wipe out a horsby HP - Ask the Experts
Just to clarify - so there is no "allegedly." He actually said these things. And "self incriminating" isn't relevant because they told him they wouldn't go after him based on what he said. Last part is, and excuse my ignorance here, was what he was doing "illegal" at the time? Breaking a specific rule? Maybe it was illegal in some places but not otby HP - Ask the Experts
For me it's a "smoke" and "fire" thing. I'm not edumucated enough to speak to it otherwise. I don't have any reason to think Jerry is lying about what Allday told the Jockey Club. Do you think he's lying? That's a "straight from the horse's mouth" thing. Dropping out now. Good luck in the Derby to all.by HP - Ask the Experts