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Thoro-Graph
I went by where they last raced JB.
7 dirt sprints - last race KEE 4 winners, 3 second, 2 thirds. Maybe it's a factor of the prep races they have there, you would know better than me, but that's dominant.
And yes sir, includes ALL turf races.
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FWIW, I went through the archives to see just how dominant the Euros are on turf at SA. Over the last three Cali BCs there were 18 turf races. Euros won 5 of them at a mile, outside of that, in the remaining 13 turf race they won...one. Not was I was expecting. The Belmont horses have done just as well on grass out there. The other takeaway is that the Cali horses are way ahead in dirt route
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I think standouts today are
Race 6 - A Lot
Race 8 - Mrs. McDougal
Race 11 - Destin
With the Brown horses I know I'm no wizard picking them and need luck underneath and in surrounding races to generate value. If Sharp Azteca doesn't win it could be a good sequence. In the sixth I think Mosler should run well and no one mentioning Commute, added Pure Sensation as well. In the 8
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I think Lani's gonna back up after Derby and Preakness, especially after all the daydreams he's been having about horse stud heaven in front of big crowds.
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Hey Jim - I wasn't really addressing Gettysburg's chance of winning as much as you saying "generally it's (pace) is a minimal factor" on the TG board. It's a factor period. You can address it with TGs or other pace figures if you like but you can certainly integrate it into TG handicapping. I think the problem comes up when people say things about pace based on vi
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I don't think pace is "generally viewed as a minimal factor." It's a matter of how you express it. The problem is a lot of people talk about pace exclusively in terms of the clock/time. To interpret TGs it's also (more?) a function of potential ground loss.
If Gettysburg is lone speed he is more likely to save ground. And horses that have to close and weave throu
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Jerry you did nothing wrong betting the violin at 8-1. He could have been anything coming into this race, and could easily have vaulted ahead of the top two betting choices off his last race.
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Hey TGJB King Leatherbury won one today! One of the nice guys.
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Thanks for passing along info, horse has not really backed up yet and Romans' horses are firing.
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I give you credit, not everyone recognizes a mistake, I'm sure you didn't have bad intentions.
In terms of your original point I would find it impossible to compare tracks year to year. Who knows what they've done? Added cushion, there are all kinds of things that could affect it. Part of what we pay for is Jerry's experience in seeing the track evolve over time, wheth
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But you did manage to squeeze in this comment. If this isn't patting yourself on the back I don't know what is.
Also this years Derby was not wide open to me it was Nyquist all along.
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Nothing is a "crime" PDub but it's the definition of red boarding. Nothing he said before the race amounted to his current comment of "I had Nyquist all the way."
At a glance he lost money hitting the exacta and I would imagine he lost on everything else too but I don't have time to do all the math. Converting this into some kind of victory lap and saying "
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Meaningless.
All that matters is what you said before the race, which has very little to do with what you are posting now or what you posted immediately after. You commented on four horses and you gave no indication that Nyquist was a "key." It read to me like you thought any one of the four had a shot (and none of them were named Exaggerator or Moyhamen).
You taking credit
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Johnnym I did some checking.
Here's what you said BEFORE the race. I added in the names of the horses to make this clear.
Date: May 07, 2016 07:19AM
12) The biggie; Really like SBN going in not to crazy about the draw,he is my longshot play as well to win. Creator getting good at the right time all reports are he is full of himself and training good. Nyquist 7-7 can not look the
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It's cool that you think it was "Nyquist all along" but that had to have been based on something besides TG.
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I've always thought all of this is built into the numbers. If a horse runs a 3 and figures to run in the 1 path all the way around (frontrunner) there's every chance that horse can beat a horse that loses a ton of ground and can run a 1. If you give the frontrunner extra credit or knock off a point for running a fast pace that's another variable that can be gotten wrong. Even if
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Tavasco if you are talking about Catalina Red I don't know about "horses routinely running -2 or faster." I see Calculator did it once, looked like he could bounce, Holy Boss did it last year and no way of knowing he would get back to it, and Salutos Amigos is a horse that is never going to run those numbers outside of NY (speaking of enhanced testing). I did not play this horse,
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I'm happy to rip the guy but the horse figured, period. No big deal or jump up for that one to win at all. Numbers and pattern are there. Unless you figure a one number Baffert hype job is a guarantee. I may be naive but I've seen so much worse.
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They all complain about the yelling but it's never about WHY you're yelling. Everything will be great if you just stop yelling. Shoot me.
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The pace scenario did indeed play out exactly as anticipated. And when I saw the fractions I thought the race would collapse and I would be cashing tickets. Gun Runner holding on for third tells me more about the race than Nyquist winning.
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This is some epic handicapping richiebee. Love to see this on the board, what it's all about.
I'll throw this one out for tomorrow, I love Holy Boss. Good luck to all.
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Maybe the whole approach with Destin is based on Pletcher trying to learn from past mistakes? I would imagine he's quite aware of his record coming into the Derby out of GP preps.
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How about getting a hit with the bases loaded, nobody out, and my pitcher is mowing them down like a machine? Ugh.
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I know others have said this but the Euros that come over for this are NOT coming over because they run well on soft ground. Nobody in Europe says "oh boy I'm sending my horse to California because he runs well on yielding turf." I don't think anyone in Europe this year was thinking they were sending their horse to Kentucky because it was going to rain every day. They are l
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The Cubs are the exact opposite of the Royals. The Cubs strike out a lot. The Royals are successful because they don't say "the strike outs are okay because it's a trade off for power." The Mets pitchers get two strikes and it doesn't do them any good. They need to keep the ball down and get ground balls. The Royals got everything in the air against DeGrom and that d
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I don't know how much of a difference this makes but people who bet on football probably played football at some point? I don't know quite how to phrase it but horse racing is more purely about gambling and less about really being involved in the sport. A lot of good suggestions on this string about educating players but it's all about betting strategies, etc. It's not abou
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If anybody cares - local news in Jersey says Monmouth is fixing up a new $million$ plus race to draw AP back in September.
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That's very interesting because a bunch of the stuff I just read seemed to assume that the horses were running further if the rails were out but based on what you are saying they are not since "they move the start to compensate for the rail." They do post this on Equibase in scratches and changes page so if it helps you the info is there.
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