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Thoro-Graph
Burned the midnight oil and figured out what I was doing wrong.
Below is the Essex Handicap adjusted for the run-up.
2f: 97
4f: 84
6f: 99
8.5f: 111
Beyer gave the race a 99 BSF. Subtract 12 points from the above figures for the final adjustment if you're cool with his assessment.
2f: 85
4f: 72
6f: 87
8.5f: 99
Pace was honest ... not necessarily fast. They got a little b
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ruthlessman Wrote:
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> I think the run up would be a factor in opening
> fraction.
True. That's why I went ahead and reworked all my charts to reflect a run-up of 0. I should have done this a long time ago. My original charts seemed to reflect a run-up of around 60ft.
Now I just have to figure out how to adjust for the run
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Tavasco Wrote:
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>
> I'm on Rated R Superstar hope his price holds.
Nice job, dude.
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I think PLAINSMAN is worth something around 1/1 to 7/5 in this spot.
7/5 if I'm cautious.
1/1 if I want to get aggressive.
As a fan I'm at 1/9. I've been an admirer of John Ed Anthony (Loblolly Stable) ever since TEMPERENCE HILL.
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6f: 1:11
4f: 0:45.6
2f:
I was looking over some files I have in cloud storage when I came across some very old universal pars once used by a well known figure maker in New York.
The 4f and 6f times listed above are parallel on his chart. I'm curious if anyone has an opinion what the 2f time should be based on the data provided?
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Re: Arlington Stakes Races
As a fan of the sport something has been bugging me for years that most of you will probably find silly.
No disrespect to Hanshin Racecourse, but don't mess with the "Chocolate Soldier."
The Hanshin Stakes should always be known as the Equipoise Mile. Get your own stakes race, Hanshin. :-)
Racing should embrace it's rich history. Not aba
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arcadia123 Wrote:
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> My feelings about CDI aside, I am glad that the
> Arlington Million and the top stakes races have
> been preserved……at least for nostalgia sake.
That's true. I'm just disappointed they didn't try to preserve the 2yo stakes. They could have killed two birds with one stone. Maybe three. Let
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I've read a few articles, but none seem to indicate why Churchill is doing this. Are they trying to protect the graded status of the stakes races?
What they should be doing is giving all the proceeds from the August 13 card to the Illinois Horsemen they screwed over. I think Churchill still owes them money.
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I think SPIN WHEEL ran a buried race. I hope to see him spinning his wheels in the winners circle sometime soon. Should be a huge price wherever he turns up.
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I would have never known. I try to avoid anything Jack Dorsey is/was associated with.
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A long time ago I wrote a spreadsheet that combined the Beyer methodology with some of the work done by Huey Mahl and Howard Sartin. Remember turn-time?
Turn-time
4f-6f: 91
FWIW, the turn-time is in line with his Beyer top.
Jay Privman did a little rundown of this race at the Daily Racing Form.
Tampa Bay Derby
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I was a little surprised when the Beyer came back a rather pedestrian 84 for this race. I then looked at the pace. Things seem to really slow down after 2f.
Raw Beyers
2f: 73
4f: 48
6f: 63
8f: 81
8.5f: 83
Nice workout for the winner.
I'm not a figure maker. I only play one at Thoro-Graph. :-)
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jbelfior Wrote:
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> Grantham is interesting at anything close to his
> 20-1 ML.
Nice handicapping, Joe.
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I don't know who to thank. Chad Brown, or David Grening?
The weather forecast Saturday in Tampa also has Brown expecting to scratch the undefeated and 2-1 morning-line favorite Bleecker Street from the Grade 2, $225,000 Hillsborough Stakes, scheduled for the turf. Brown, who doesn’t view Bleecker Street as a horse who would enjoy soft ground, said he will still run Rocky Sky in that race.
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FOY
No head-on, but I was surprised to find an unedited replay. Most have been classified as "Top Secret."
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You could see this coming. Not enough action on the Left Coast.
Flavien Prat
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APny Wrote:
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> Today will be a
> learning experience for me no matter the outcome.
Who is the mystery horse? Maybe we can all learn something.
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Pencil-neck Carstanjen will have more drama to deal with if this horse continues to run well.
The Russian boycotts have spilled over into the sports world.
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You would think Pletcher's CLASSY EDITION will take money in the Davona Dale, but she's going against open company for the first time. Fingers crossed for a decent price.
The NY-Bred has been impressive in all three of her wins. Looking to make it 4-for-4 in the Davona Dale.
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I don't know how realistic it is, but I'm hoping for a decent price on Chad Brown's IN ITALIAN in the Honey Fox.
Moves up in class and tries stakes company for the first time. Looked amazing on the track LTO.
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Nice card. It looks like it's going to be difficult to keep Pletcher and Brown out of the winners circle on FOY day. What new?
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GREEN LIGHT GO is fortunate Jerkens didn't opt for the softer spot against optional claimers in the 7th race. He would have run 4th. ;-)
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I'm outraged Japan is about to sweep the card. 3-for-3 so far. Wow!
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I must be going off form. I like the Fair Grounds shipper in here.
PIRATE'S PUNCH has a couple of ugly looking races recently, but one was on the turf, and LTO he knocked-heads with MANDALOUN and MIDNIGHT BOURBON. I just don't think he's as bad as he looks on paper.
Ran a couple of races at Monmouth good enough to complete here. Problem is those races were way back in 2020.
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Who wants to spend the day handicapping with Andy Beyer at Hialeah?
If the Beyer figs are not your style, then maybe you'll enjoy doing some ground work at Belmont Park with Connie Merjos.
Or maybe you just want to relax and listen to some music. Then I suggest you crank up the volume as Len Ragozin jams on the banjo. Yes, I said banjo.
If you're interested send an email to
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The odds of the Bears moving to Arlington Heights has gone from 1/9 to 3/5. That's according to Daily Herald reporter Jim O'Donnell
I think those odds will continue to drift. May eventually offer value.
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Doug O'Neill trained APPRECIATED won the Curlin Stakes on the same card with a 61 raw Beyer. Running mid 80's level Beyers before the win in Dubai. 90 BSF top.
A G3 sprint race came back with a 58 raw Beyer.
AZURE COAST won the 2000 Guineas with a 71 raw Beyer.
No idea what the relationship is between 1 & 2 turn races at Meydan.
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There's a Russian 3yo making news in Dubai
Here he is breaking his maiden in Moscow
If all goes well in the UAE Derby, Pavel Vashchenko might be thinking about a race in Kentucky.
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kencbs Wrote:
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> I started on TG when they first came to LA in
> March the year Winning Colors won the Derby
> (1988?). One day's races were $27, I believe.
> Back then I had to find Julian to buy paper
> versions in person. Back then a race card in
> SoCal was around 100 horses a day, almost twice as
> ma
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