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Thoro-Graph
Anyone think PLAINSMAN has a shot in here?
He was doing some good things leading up to the troubled trip in the Bold Ruler. Throw that race out and he looks interesting at the ML price, IMHO.
Has a competitive top if a couple in here cooperate and bounce (AMERICANREVOLUTION & INDEPENDENCE HALL.)
I haven't worked out the odds yet, but something around 9/1 looks about right on PL
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"Walking side by side with death, the devil mocks their every step."
Only thing I noticed was that Scott should probably switch to a sativa, but the indica is hard to put down. :-)
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Thanks for the link. That was a good show and I loved the topic.
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Interesting race to handicap.
I think TRIPOLI deserves to be favored off that last race. He's the fastest horse in the race and has yet to bounce on the dirt. Aren't you supposed to be positive on a line like this until the horse actually bounces on the new surface?
I'm going to spend a little more time looking at this race, but I think right around 2/1 is fair odds on TRIPO
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Anyone see any value in here? Can it come from the favorite? Another -2 from MAXFIELD and he's going to be tough to beat. I think he's worth 6/5 in here.
ART COLLECTOR could be interesting off that 1/2 point forward move last time out. I'm interested at 5/2, but I'm concerned he has too much to do. He needs to improve approximately 3 lengths if the favorite runs his race.
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Good call.
I was surprised at all the action on SUPER STOCK. I thought he would be an overlay based on the ML.
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The first reaction to the 3.50 I attribute to the sudden improvement from 2yo to 3yo. He's now 5 months removed from that situation and has a month+ since the most recent top. I may be wrong, but that's my thought process regarding the pair-up question.
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Any opinions on the pattern SUPER STOCK is showing? He's running tonight at Remington Park.
I'm looking for a pair-up. Good read, or bad? I'm a little hesitant because the last time he ran that number it set him back for a while.
I think he's a solid 2/1 shot if he can pair.
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Re: SPECTACULAR BID @ Arlington Park
Still have the program from that day. Hope you can see the pdf files below.
Bid1
Bid2
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> My question for everyone is which track will be next?
Hopefully it's Churchill Downs.
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I figured Pletcher knows what his horse is capable of. I guess not in this instance.
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Did you ever get a chance to see The Sheets for the Haskell? I'm assuming you didn't since you never called back. May have been for the best because FOLLOWING SEA was the fastest on The Sheets and was Hardoon's selection.
I don't know much about Hardoon, but it seems like he's a sheet purist like Ragozin and Friedman. The apparent sprint profile on FOLLOWING SEA was n
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I would be very surprised if you were able to get that ML price on MIDNIGHT BOURBON. You'll be lucky to get 3/1, IMHO.
The only potential value that I see in this race is the horse the ROTW handicapper is negative on: FOLLOWING SEA. I'll take a chance at 4/1 and up.
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Bert Firestone passed away recently and I was just reading about all his accomplishments.
For some reason I was under the impression he was the owner of MAIRZY DOATES ... the winner of the inaugural Japan Cup in 1981. I guess not. I don't know why I thought that.
Maybe I was confused because he won the race the following year with HALF ICED. The Firestones also owned APRIL RUN who ran
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I never really thought about it much, but I see how there could be some friction between the two groups.
Director of Operations for William Hill in Nevada:
"I used to build all of William Hill's sports racing/sportsbooks in Nevada. The last couple of books that I built, the horseplayers pissed off the sports bettors so much and vice versa that we had to separate the book. We had t
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Any opinions on the closing day feature at Belmont?
ML holds up pretty well even after the scratches.
Don't you have to play CIVIL UNION in here if you could get the ML price of 9/2? I think she's worth around 7/2. I would be more negative on her if she wasn't showing the the 5+ this year. Hint.
VIRGINIA JOY looks like the horse to beat and I think the ML is spot on at 9/5
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I see that PROXY has scratched. That brings the odds down to 3/1 & 6/1.
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I find it difficult to split three horses, so I will make them all 7/2 and see what the board has to offer.
PROMISE KEEPER: Competitive top, eligible to improve, inside post.
KING FURY: Fast top, has time since that number, have to respect.
PROXY: Also has fast top, also has time, outside post a negative.
To play against the top three I would need at least 7/1 to be interested. Three
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Not much going on Tuesday, so I thought I would have a little fun.
Cox and Maker invade Canterbury Wednesday night for the Mystic Lake Northern Stars Turf Festival. One or the other will be favored in any race they have a starter. Who will visit the winners circle more often in the races they're head-to-head (Oaks, Mile, Derby)? I have it:
Cox: 4/5
Maker: 6/5
What's going on a
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I'm looking for betting advice since I seem to struggle with it so much.
How would you approach a race like this if you thought the only value in the race was #1 LADY NOGUEZ? M/L is at 20/1 and I think she's half that.
It's a bit of a reach for her to win, but I think she can get a piece.
The tri and super don't seem good options because they're not going to pay
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Well that was a buzz kill.
No response to my question about the O-2 pattern on the bulletin board, but I see the Thoro-Graph analysis suggested her as the play. We disagree on the price, but that will happen.
The question now becomes: How do you like LASHARA off the O-2-X?
Maybe the question is: How do you like LASHARA now that she's back on lasix? I don't know. I'm grasp
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DOMINGA and SISTER HANAN scratched in favor of a easier spot tomorrow, but I am a little surprised CRYSTAL BALL is still in. Guessing game how she'll handle the turf.
I'll keep the odds as is even after the CRYSTAL "CURVE" BALL.
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Anyone playing Churchill tonight? The feature looks interesting.
The horse to beat is JULIET FOXTROT. Deserves to be favored, but not as much as the M/L suggests. I think her fair odds are around 5/2 in this spot.
The horse I'm interested in is listed at 20/1 on the M/L: LASHARA. What do you guys think of the O-2 pattern she's on? I'm positive on it and I'm looking for
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The scratches are starting to trickle in now. It should be a seven horse field when it's all said and done. #9 QUEEN NEKIA should be the final scratch.
I wasn't anticipating the #4 and #6 to scratch. No biggie, but it had a slight impact on my odds.
I'll go down to 9/5 on BAJAN GIRL and 7/2 on MARKET RUMOR. GRACEFUL PRINCESS stays at 7/1.
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Gary Irish Wrote:
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>
> I saw the changes are in at Delaware. Is Irad
> really riding? A quick healer, that one. I had
> forgotten his spill.
I think it's still too early. I'm anticipating more scratches. The well informed indicated yesterday that #2 CRYSTAL BALL and #5 JILTED BRIDE will pass in favor of a stake a
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Gary Irish Wrote:
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> Hello Pete,
>
> I see you have returned to the Dark Side (smile).
Don't get too close. You may get tempted.
I'll let you know what I think of Wilkes after this race. 😉
Too bad you don't have The Sheets for this race. Would have loved to get your opinion. Next time.
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20/1 M/L on MARKET RUMOR? I don't think so. I think she's a solid 4/1 shot in here. Only concern is that she's always wide and has drawn outside for this race.
Horse to beat looks like BAJAN GIRL. Ran a huge number at GP and didn't fall apart afterwards. Current form suggests she's worth something around 2/1.
The other horse to consider is GRACEFUL PRINCESS. I respe
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TGJB Wrote:
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> Or you could pass.
Hell will freeze over the day I figure out how to play this game. I don't even know why I bother with odds when the strategy can't be implemented.
If you're doing a decent job handicapping the odds that "usually" means you're going to be pretty close to what you see o
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Small field with two fig standouts. To bet against the two favorites I think you're gonna need at least 8/1. The only horse that's going to meet that threshold seems to be SHOP GIRL and she's around 6 points slower than the chalk. Not that enticing.
Might as well focus on the two fast horses on paper and see what happens. I'll go with MISS BRAZIL at 4/5 and BELLA SOFIA at 2
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