Dynamic Impact is interesting at a big price. draws post 1 and runs ok inside. could get the 1w/1w trip. bred to go long so it's no surprise the big top came with an extra 1/8. bounce the obvious issue, but Casse has been strong last 90 days (30% new tops, good ROI).by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
thanks for that Mike.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Agree with a lot of this, Richie. Bernardini is my favorite horse of all time. Number one. On figures, any figures, he was one of the fastest 3 yr olds to ever run. Social Inclusion's pedigree does not match Bernardini's. I like PotN as a young sire, a lot, and like Saint Ballado with Ballade in there. Below that it's more tilted towards speed. SI has a nice 1m to 9f pedigreeby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
if we don't hear back from Silver Charm it's because a monsoon just hit south Fla and he might not even be alive.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
richiebee Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Michael D. Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > > the sample sizes are too small, way too small > when > > it comes to SI (a handful of colts most making > one > > start). > > > > SI's sire PotN ran well in the slop, andby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
tommyG Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I like the ROTW analysis and the horses it ends up > on. However, I was wondering how the analysis > might be changed if the big rains come and the > track is OFF on Saturday. > > I know the sample sizes are small, but the TGI for > the top two ML favorites (CC, SI) are among the > worst difby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
yeah, all those good ones getting hurt down there certainly does make you wonder. could be the surface. outstanding post regardless.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
richiebee Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Blasphemy. > > We saw two future Grade 1 turf stars over the > weekend. > > Not much mention of Seek Again's performance, > coming up the hedge and giving > the surprisngly rank HOY all he could handle. This > guy was only average in > John Gosden's yard, never competingby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
nothing wrong with a "why" when last year's Preakness day surface was not quick. and Mike always has good info on track bias. very important subject imo. we're dealing with a huge favorite here and a bias that might aid SI or Bay, or a closer at a huge price, could be worth a ton of money (tho CC obviously has no problem with quick surfaces).by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Kasept Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Michael D. Wrote: > > > > Baffert said the same thing after Bayern tired > at > > OP. It's unlikely Pim will be demanding/tiring > on > > the big day. CC and SI also like it quick tho. > > Why is it unlikely? Pimlico main was like a beach > last year. just gby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
KK4510 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Baffert said in a radio interview that the track > opening day was very deep and Bayern didn't handle > it well. Baffert said the same thing after Bayern tired at OP. It's unlikely Pim will be demanding/tiring on the big day. CC and SI also like it quick tho. > He said that the track gotby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
there are some positives here. last was better than it looks. gets Stevens back. style fits the course (usually). no worse than last year's winner while his foes probably are. everybody loves Social Inclusion.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
miff Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Turns out that Beyer did adjust the derby > figure,97, upwards by app 3 lengths, 6 Beyer > points.Guess that's about as subjective as it can > be,i.e.how much did the wind affect the time of > the race and the fig.If you break the race out and > go off the horses, maybe you get a less subjective &by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
drbillym Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Yes, I agree jock was overly aggressive, and could > have been disqualified. But he was the horse with > the most left in the stretch and was prbly the 2nd > best horse in the race. Look at the start and see > how he gets absolutely smashed from the 4 spot to > the rail. Takes a good horse to regby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
P-Dub Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > jp702006 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I would not be shocked if others received a > better > > number than CC for the Derby. He had an amazing > > trip and made the most of it. > > > Which horse(s) ran a better figure today?? Chromeby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
TreadHead Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > gonna throw it out there, cant find the trakus > chart yet, but possible Curve gets a better figure > than CC, or at least the same. same figure, but CChr is almost always going to get a shorter trip than CCur, so I'm not sure that matters. what does matter is wind. 2:03.26 is painfully slow, unleby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Frank, seeing you stoop at Saratoga would ruin my entire summer. I hope today's result prevents you from stooping at the Spa. Not that there's anything wrong with it.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
TGJB Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 375k. very ouch.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
I liked Com Curve at 37-1 (liked him at 15-1 actually), but in the end decided that 5-2 was too low on the other CC. But here's what I wrote on CChrome's pedigree a month ago: re CC's pedigree - On top it's Pulpit over Cozzene over the 2nd dam of Unbridled's Song. On bottom it's a full to Travers winner Rhythm over Danzig (with Rhythm's brilliant femaleby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
I had Chitu crossed off after watching the final 1/8 of his last a few times. didn't like him. if Garcia can't get him to rate at all, he's a bottom 5 candidate. but the way the track is playing today, and with the ideal post, I've changed my mind. it's AP Indy on bottom and the pattern is there for a new top, and 26-1 covers the collapse risk. I'll also use Commby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
outstanding job with the Oaks, Jerry. nothing wrong with favorites when you crush it like that.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
well, I misread the pace there. the scratch of the :45 filly hurt, but they were all running for 2nd regardless. brilliant performance by the winner after losing about 5 1/2 lengths in ground.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
I'm going with Rosalind in the doubles. From the 4 hole, Joel should sit in a great spot towards the back while things could get a bit messy around the first turn for some of the quicker ones. Runs like 9f shouldn't be a problem, and they've been pointing towards this race since last year. Needs a few good ones to back up late, but 8-1 is a pretty good price.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Gerard Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > As per earlier post a few weeks ago regarding West > Point owners and DS popularity, and given some > interest in these posts as well, any guesses on > where the other CCs post time odds will be? really don't know, but I won't be surprised if he's 15-1. with Pablo in there, the pace is goiby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
This is the worst betting Derby I have ever seen. The only horse I could even contemplate betting is Commanding Curve, and he might be 10 lengths too slow with a wide trip.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Asmussen has 31 drug violations, one for every 1,008 starts. Pletcher has 5, one for every 2,971 starts. Mott, 8 total, has one for every 2,669 starts. Clement and Shug have just one violation each, with 7,216 and 8,109 starts respectively. Graham Motion has never had a medication violation, with nearly 10,000 starts. numbers from the end of last year.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
yeah, I just found this. jumping from 24 to 22 could change things. SOCIAL INCLUSION (No. 24) – Rontos Racing Stable’s Social Inclusion, who worked Thursday at Gulfstream Park, likely will not make the trip to Churchill Downs according to owner Ronald Sanchez. “At this moment, I don’t think we’ll ship to Kentucky. It doesn’t make sense to pay a $25,000 entry fee, plus all the other expby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Social Inclusion back in the mix at 22. Speedballs now at 21 and 22. The shape of the race could change quite a bit.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
phil23 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Hmm...ok, well the one thing that does kind of > stand out from both mine and Kmart's on DI or CD > is that it appears the middle group pedigrees are > a fair bit less likely to run a new top. > > So...does that mean that extreme pedigrees one way > or the other are, for some reason, more liby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
yeah, with Mike Smith up, I'm guessing Hopp is the solid 3rd choice.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts