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Thoro-Graph
current odds across the pond -
AP 2-1
Dort 5-1
Carpe 8-1
Mubt 12-1
Material 14-1
FiringL 16-1
Frosted 16-1
Upstart 20-1
Int Star 25-1
El Kab 40-1
Danzig M 40-1
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
TGJB Wrote:
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> The issue is not specific to Materiality. But re
> him, the question (one of them) is what "his race"
> is outside Florida.
>
> Quality Road, Dreaming Of Julia... it's quite a
> list of giant Pletcher GP figures, and not just
> with 3yos. Amazingly, Constitution came back
> aro
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
covelj70 Wrote:
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> Fairmount, I just went back and looked
>
> There were 7 horses in the Gemologist Derby that
> had run faster than Gemologist had coming into the
> race.
>
> Not picking on you or anything b/c I think this
> proves the whole point about Pletcher and the
> Derby.
>
> Conventiona
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Rick B. Wrote:
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> dcost328 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> Otherwise honest horse that doesn't seem to be
> much
> interested in winning.
>
> See "Denis Of Cork".
wasn't that the 27-1 shot that helped turn a huge favorite (Big Brown) into a $58,000 superfect
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
will get the same figure as Carpe Diem, and ran the same final 1/16. and he will be a huge price.
Upstart looks a bit better after the Wood. not saying Frosted is anything special, and there is that throat thing that complicates things, but he's at least pretty solid after losing 7 lengths in ground an pulling away with a 12.4 final 1/8. the GP surface was brutal.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
I don't have a strong opinion on the colt, but he is a 1/2 to Ria Antonia, the 2013 BC Juvy filly winner who made the synth to dirt move. Take a look at her sheet in the archives (first race on the 2nd). Note that she paid $66 after getting put up.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> This is completely inappropriate. I feel like you
> are accusing Pletcher of something here.
>
> Here is the real reason as he explained it himself
> recently and it should suffice all of his critics.
>
> _______________________________
>
> “It’s a hard race to win,” Pletcher ad
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
as one of the favorites, distance limitations probably made this guy a toss. but at 18-1 and as sure as any of these to make it to the gate, it might be best to focus on the demanding GP surface, the tough draws, and the competitive figures.
not my top choice, but I'm not selling Upstart short at 18-1.
let's see how he looks training over that CD surface.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Mike, WS tracked a length and a half off Tonalist, and ran a length and a half further in ground. if you give either of the two some sort of trip edge (vs the other), it has to be a pretty small one.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
first Tonalist loses to WS in the JDandy because Clement wanted to lose a horse race. not because WS was good, but because the trainer wanted to lose a horse race. and now Tonalist loses because he ran a 1/2 in 47.5 over a surface that a NY bred 3 yr old filly just skipped over in 1:21.89.
do I have this right?
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
justwin Wrote:
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> Heading up to Saratoga on Friday Aug. 1. Buying
> seats on ticketmaster, best seats come up with
> grandstand sec N row 1. I haven't been to Saratoga
> in a couple of years and can't recall if these
> seats are covered. Don't want to sit in the sun
> all day. Any advice would be apprec
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
covelj70 Wrote:
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> because there are enough people that do that
> already but how hard would it be to move the
> Breeders Cup away from Halloween?
>
> The first thing anyone ever laments about in horse
> racing is that "there aren't enough young people
> in the game"
>
> so what does the b
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
I'm going with Commanding Curve here.
has AP Indy over a second dose of Secretariat on top. broodmare sire is out of a full to Easy Goer who produced Strolling Along, winner of a graded stakes going 12f on turf. below that it's Topsider, out of one of the best 12f turf mares in American racing history. Tom Rolfe below that.
has a nice sheet, is fast enough, and Master Commands de
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
phil23 Wrote:
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> Agreed on CK. Also going BL OFF to relax him a bit
> more too.
excellent point in regards to the blinkers. it's the first thing Pletcher talked about after the race.
for those who didn't play the race, check out the mile and a half figures for CK and the favorite, Draw Two. they looked the same on Be
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
I don't know. it's not on here, before a workout in Baltimore.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Wrongly Wrote:
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> The 2nd split looks like the most important 24.2
> or slower has produced two wire to wire winners in
> the last 20 runnings, like Da'Tara 23.4, 24.2.
> Dunkrik went 23.2, 23.8 held on for 2nd!
Track was very quick on Summer Bird/Dunkirk day. You have to adjust those numbers quite a bit. Dunkirk w
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
a 2 mile race. tough to have a high degree of confidence here.
but the best way to get good at anything in life is to take risk, fail, and learn.
Charming Kitten - decent figures. TG makes that mile and a half race better than it appears. looks like he was getting a bit leg weary at the end, but the 6:06 final 1/16 suggests CK wasn't spent. handled the off going pretty well at Haw, and
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
smithkent Wrote:
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> For me, backups with multiple other horses in pick
> 3 and pick 4
> Exactas with multiple horses without CC
> wide superfecta wheel/box with no CC
>
> With all backups, include the absolute longest
> shots, even if you think absolutely no way by
> standard deterministic methods. If they
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
smithkent Wrote:
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> Yes, I'm going to have some backups to CC, but be
> prepared for an historic win by him too...
hi smith.
what does "have some backups" mean?
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Toga Wrote:
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> My apology. I can appreciate your request. It was
> a late and a rambled a bit. I will keep this
> brief.
>
> 1) How do you view WS? It looks like a 0-2-x to me
> but he is training great.
Summer Bird had that same big jump in his Derby prep, then backed up a few points in the Derby with a bad t
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Toga,
Excellent post to get the week started.
I'll have more later, but quickly on WS. The toughest call in the race for me. At times I see his sire Hard Spun and think 12f is too long. 13.5 final 1/8 in the Derby.
One the other hand, WS did have a difficult trip on Derby day - wide and forced to weave through traffic. And if you watch his Wood, the guy was ridden for about a half
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Mike, what did the 3 Contessa horses pay to win?
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
richiebee Wrote:
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> The only regret
> is that you do not have a rival who has yet shown
> the talent of CC to increase
> the drama.
that's where the odds come in. the last seven odds-on Belmont runners, and they all looked pretty strong, have all lost.
Real Quiet was 4-5 and Victory Gallop 9-2. those numbers were
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
johnnym Wrote:
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> Just put in a nice work with a strong gallop
> out..
> Is this horse still improving?
could be, but he's a Feb foal by a win early sire. from a betting perspective, it makes more sense to play a different runner for a new top.
the more I see of CC, the more I see Real Quiet. look at their sheets. qu
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
TGJB Wrote:
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> Shoes (turn downs) used to be a big issue in NY,
> Miff can probably fill you in. I would think it's
> unlikely a bit can make that big a difference. But
> as much as possible should be published, and as
> little as possible allowed.
yeah, an entire breed of horses addicted to medical devices that
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
jerry Wrote:
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> Certainly sounds like a performance enhancer but,
> strangely, Dr. McIlwraith concludes, "Science has
> shown that you make it easier for the horse to
> breathe, but does this enhance performance? I
> don't think so."
but the doc says:
"There was a treadmill study done by Dr. M
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
NYS has determined that breathing does not matter. this is a race, a mile and a half race, and the New York racing commission has determined that it does not matter how well a horse breathes. it does not matter that one horse uses a medical device that allows him to breathe easier.
breathing. doesn't matter. in a race.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Toga Wrote:
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> I agree on your stance with SI in the Belmont, it
> will be tough to consider him going 1 1/2. I knew
> when they were loading him for the Preak that I
> might as well toss my tickets out… washed out,
> nearly flipped over in the gate, and then a fourth
> place stalking wide trip. I didn't really L
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
when I see words like "tired" and "nasal strips" being bandied about, I start to wonder if CChrome will be anywhere near Elmont, New York in the month of June.
Oceanport anybody?
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
sticking with Social Inclusion as my key. number power is strong for the 10-1 odds. I also like Dynamic Impact at a huge price. inside trip should mostly offset the 2 points he needs to make up, and I like the pedigree and hot trainer. a bounce is the big risk, but 25-1 is fair. and with 10 and 25-1 shots, I can spread a bit with CChrome.
edit: 6-1 on SI. still my key. 23-1 on DI looks good.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts