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Thoro-Graph
cutting down 6 large trees to build a walk of fame is one of the most nauseating things I have ever heard. have they already cut down the trees?
by
Michael D.
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pizza, agree with some of that actually, but I'm not sure how you come up with the Chrome verdict. both were stumbling at the end of the Derby, without running all that fast early. I doubt either could have gone much faster. every speed figure I have seen has AP faster in that race. why do you think AP would have lost to Chrome going 10f at CD?
by
Michael D.
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Paul, you're on fire with these picks. $36.80 for the win & $281 for the exacta. huge. keep it up.
by
Michael D.
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should not have lost 5 lengths in ground to Frosted in an 8 horse field.
KI ran a fast final 1/8 as well. probably left a bit on the track.
by
Michael D.
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all or nothing. last & 2nd to last in the Woody Stephens. a compact colt from 6.5f races wins in 1:40.78. in the Brooklyn he goes first with a horse that would have been 15-1, and last.
:49 & 1:39 in the mile and a half race. that certainly changes things.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Wrongly Wrote:
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> $1 Will Pays Gold Cup and Belmont Double
>
> Mubtaahij $43
> Tale of the Verve $107
> Madefromlucky $61
> Frammento $133
> AP $7
> Frosted $22
> Keen Ice $89
> Materiality $25
I played Verve with Innovati
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
in the Gold Cup/Belmont dd, I'm going with Innovation Economy. gets a direct infusion of Secretariat blood through Gone West. 2nd dam is the dam of Cetewayo, a brilliant NY turf router. gets in light & should save ground all the way around. 9/5 is no good, but the doubles look good.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
fair enough, Rob. I didn't like Mat or Frosted in the Derby, and I don't find either to be particularly interesting in this spot. but AP will be overbet because of the circumstances and keying one of the fast ones, albeit at lowish odds, makes some sense. and as I said earlier, I think they both benefit if the pace is soft and the race plays short.
by
Michael D.
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Mike, one or two additional speed types would have made a world of difference. the odds of 2 going would have been much higher, and both Johnny V and Victor would have been forced to work a bit harder early to get clear running.
this race stinks.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
what if both Victor and Johnny V decide to run as slow as they possibly can early on? what if they go 24.5 & 50? what if they both have tight holds entering the far turn? if that happens, this thing plays more like a 9 or 10f race. if this plays like a 9 or 10f race, the 4-5, 4-1, and 5-1 shots are the best horses, and there is no bet to be made imo. Mat is fast, but he has a 110 Beyer on the
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
this looks like the Smarty Jones Belmont without a Birdstone.
I doubt AP is going to run a fast 12f, but I'm not sure that gets us anywhere. slim pickings.
Frosted and Mat are ok, but they look more like Rock Hard Ten and Eddington types.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Re: AP - 9 years ago
Wrongly Wrote:
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> Does anyone find it strange that AP was shipped to
> CD rather than Belmont? Now comes the news that
> AP's breeding rights have been sold. If you owned
> AP; and really thought he would be the first
> triple crown winner in 37 years, wouldn't you want
> to wait on making any deal for bre
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
sek, Danzig Moon is my key as well. ridden out of the gate and bounced around early in the Derby. didn't have the best 10f pedigree to begin with, so it wasn't a big surprise when he flattened out. will sit back today, gets a trip a 1/16 shorter, and should get pace to run at. a bit slow going in, but I think there's still some value in the TG Blue Grass fig vs the 90 Beyer.
ne
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
You hit the nail on the head, Jim. This is a very, very good horse that didn't want to go that far, got hung a bit wide, and won.
When it comes to mile and a quarter racing, however, this is an average bunch at best. The performances from the 2nd and 3rd choices were weak and dreadful.
When I saw that 2:03 pop up, the first thing that came to mind was that a horse from ny who didn
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Paul, great call on a 14-1 shot. hope you managed to get the favorite in there somehow.
by
Michael D.
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I like the way Carpe has been breaking this year. with a little nudge, he left quickly and secured position both times. took a bit of dirt at Tampa and responded well. could get a valuable ground saving trip. has a strong cruising speed, and the stride and pedigree to finish. prepared perfectly for this spot and sports a lovely pattern.
things could get ugly quickly if the 1 & 3 come out a
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
here's what Haskin wrote on Bloodhorse.com:
"His pedigree remains an enigma, as it seems to be teetering on the edge of a mile and an eighth, with a female family that traces to Forli and the great producer Kamar that could help propel him that extra eighth."
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Sandreadis Wrote:
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> Michael D, Would you care to comment on Firing
> Line's pedigree to get the Derby distance?
>
>
> Thanks.
>
>
> Firing Line's Sunland track Record lasted 3 weeks,
> broken by a NM Bred going 4 wide.
>
> -
> winning-sunland-handicap
a bit speedy up top.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
sekrah Wrote:
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> Bouncing back so quickly after that TB Derby to
> set a new top, I think you can almost cross that
> poor effort out. He's only moved 5 pts forward
> from his two year old number. He's eligible for
> another couple more.
I've gone back and forth with this one a million times. I decided
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Re: AP - 9 years ago
right, but with the numbers at 2 and the sire stats, AP doesn't look overly suspect to me, not pattern wise. with the physical issues, the works are extra important. I guess you could say he passed the test today.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Re: AP - 9 years ago
Jerry,
AP has the two big #'s early on at 2, and the POTNs get 5 points better from 2 to 3 (smallish sample size). And it looks like the colt is pretty happy running around that track right now. I'm not an expert pattern guy, but it looks to me like he's ready to run a good one. If I try and beat him, it will be because of the distance & low price.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
Re: AP - 9 years ago
AP looks ready to pop a negative 3.
Bottom of the pedigree and ability to rate well enough to win a 10f race are the issues. Positive view is that the pedigree, while questionable on bottom, is a bit stronger than it looks, and they all have the rating challenge. Negative view is that as the overwhelming favorite at 2-1 or 5-2, the bar is set high, and 2-1 is too low with those two question ma
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
A lot depends on post position. If Dort draws way inside, I would imagine he's going low 46's.
Remember when Balto Star and Songandaprayer drew 1 and 3? That's why they went :44.86 that year.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
joemama Wrote:
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> There was a incredibly brutal wind that day. One
> of the reasons I opted to not to bet Aquaduct that
> day. Maybe those horses will be a step up derby
> day without the windy disadvantage.
I read somewhere that the kickback was so bad the jocks feared for their lives.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
TGJB Wrote:
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> Now that I went back and refreshed my memory, it's
> worth noting there were hurricane level winds on
> Wood day, which for reasons previously discussed
> can play havoc with figure makers. I took some
> liberties-- if not, the Wood would have to be even
> faster or the Gazelle even slower.
by
Michael D.
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Dortmund is gonna have to drift up in price. A horse that everyone hates can't go off at 4-1. Wonder how high the odds will go?
by
Michael D.
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mjellish Wrote:
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> Not many people knew about that workout or how
> good it was until after the Derby. But Curve
> dusted Golden Soul and galloped out like he could
> go around again, and I liked his LA Derby and his
> pattern. He wins and I am still counting my
> money.
>
> As I recall people got pretty
by
Michael D.
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