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Thoro-Graph
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Not sure if they sold but Prop Swap had Bengals 300/1 ticket listed. Craziest Super Bowl odds ever. Burrow is a stud but they’re terrible upfront. That’s an issue vs this Rams team. I think both teams might have a hard time moving the ball. I like the under. And probably will take the points though I like the Rams to win a close lower scoring game. MVP props spreading money on the Rams defe
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To a lessor degree as far as looking for one to throw a new top- it seemed to appear that Rombauer was being pointed to the Preakness all winter/spring. Yes his first race was on turf but he ran well at two on dirt, so bringing him back in a race that was an automatic entry to the Preakness, The El Camino Real, and then skipping the derby despite having enough points after the 3rd at Keeneland s
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I feel like if CT is gonna run a big one it’ll be here. As you pointed out his last wasn’t as over the top awful as everyone seems to think. He was BB’s “second string†which is usually pretty strong, ie Justify etc.(not saying CT is Justify though, just that BB’s other is normally legit). But he has a pretty solid pattern coming in, and there’s no reason to think BB won’t have
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Cocaine only shows up for ~48 hours depending on your metabolism. Touching it or breathing in second hand smoke isn’t enough to show up. Your coworkers story is a super tough sell.
To the point, in 2021 there’s many options to beat drug tests, it blows my mind that some of these trainers with the amount of money invested in the programs & horses can’t beat tests they know are comin
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IMO the worst for racing is having the most visible trainer’s horse “taken down†or DQ’d in the biggest race of the year. That is an unmitigated disaster that the sport can’t let happen. I could see lawsuit after lawsuit after class action suit being filed, the result would be the nut low on multiple levels. Just can’t happen.
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For me the frustrating thing is the amount of the substance and the fact that it’s not a banned substance, your horse just can’t have it in their system on race day. So if MS had 21 “one trillionths†according to ESPN, I mean the end result likely will be the same as Justify or last year at Oaklawn. But it’s obvious something is going on and has been for awhile.
But if it has no ef
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Looked like he broke well enough and then Irad “choked†him back and it was pretty much a done deal after that, never really got into the race. Shocking I know, who woulda suspected that TAP’s stable wouldn’t fire in the derby??? At least his Filly did what was expected.
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I love that cat, I bet half the real estate in the greater Houston area has his furniture inside in some capacity!
As to MS. BB’s lukewarm at best endorsement of his entrant aside, He hasn’t gone forward in his 3 year old races and I’m not sure if he’s fast enough to get the lead? Forwardly placed for sure, but I don’t think he out runs Soupy or RYW? There’s always a few that con
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Soupy might be fast enough and head strong enough to complicate things up front for RYW? Unless he doesn’t want/need the lead and prefers to stalk the pace. MS should be up there as well, who’s going to be closer to the pace than in their previous races?
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It seems EQ doesn’t like being anywhere but outside. Jock kinda confirmed it in a a post BG interview. That’s pretty problematic in a 20 horse field.
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Sigh... guess I’ll have to wait a little while to torch off my money backing him... I really did think I might end up betting the ml favorite this year for the first time in, I don’t know, close to forever. Then I was thinking, great now you’ll get a price on him. I mean, Was his AK derby really “that bad?†One subpar effort, 3rd by a head in a grade 1 million dollar race and forget
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Wasn’t that the situation with Mendolsohn? Freaked turf to dirt and then didn’t run anywhere near as well the next couple if I’m remembering correctly? There was plenty of talk here in the forum expecting the forward move or at least a pair up in KY that didn’t materialize. But this one “should†be on the lead, maybe a fairly “easy†one to boot.
How long has it been since so
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Is anyone willing to give CT another shot? Had a nice progressing pattern coming in, if he won he’d likely been second choice, now he’ll be left for dead. Neither Baffert’s ran their A race today. I don’t know, I’m not completely jumping ship yet, even though you could make the argument that he’s yet to run “fast†and gave up the ghost in deep stretch.
As of today I’m not
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Needs another move forward, I like him to do it to. I think the posts will hurt a few that have already run faster to. Tough to win this race from the outside.
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I saw the same thing in the book earlier in the day, but I watched the race from the house, I didn’t catch them mention it once in the ~hour between the Forrester & the derby.
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Definitely strong. Pretty much every other racing “pundit†or “public handicapper†took a stand against the winner. Obviously the pattern and read here was dead on.
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Could definitely sit a trip and if he has one more forward move he’ll be right there. I see him and Major Fed both being close(r) to the front. Especially after the latter’s last two works. Save ground and get the jump on Tiz, & Honor AP,Tucking in behind Authentic, STC, and NY Traffic hoping they back up while those two grind along and get the distance. At least that’s how I see th
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Planned on using him mightily, gross. How does this change the pace projection? Less contentious? I saw him being right up on the front end with Authentic, Not that I expected it to be “fast†but now I don’t really see anyone that would willingly vie up front with him. Easy lead and slow it down?
I can’t see any scenario where there’s much of any pace now, Probably more congesti
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I agree w Tampa, but it seems like Tampa form struggles to be repeated in KY? But it’s 2020 who knows? I do like the King G though, little bit of the 5 underneath likely for me as well..
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It’s not totally outrageous, he hasn’t ran back this quick really ever in his career if I’m not mistaken?
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The problem with Sol is his running style. That hasn’t worked in the derby since like Animal Kingdom or at least around then. Since the change to points the winner always seems to come from stalking the pace or right off it. Honor AP might be interesting moving forward. Maybe the TAP that ran third in Tampa yesterday? If he can move forward off an “ok†effort he seems to have the ri
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Not trying to be dense here, but are you losing $.18/$1.00, or gaining $.82/$1.00 wagered? The latter doesn’t seem plausible at all but just want to be sure, thanks
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Does that equate to $.82 ROI for every $2 wagered? Better than 40% on your money year in and year out seems pretty strong compared to pretty much everything else imaginable? (Over 40,000 race sample) If so, how does that compare to the other “standard†wagers, win/place/show/Tri/Super... Or am I misunderstanding this all together?
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That was painful. And yeah as to the Master’s ride, it was almost like the game plan was to wait until the exact second that he had to much to make up to late and then get him clear and actually moving? And he was flying (after it didn’t matter)
Didn’t love Spinoff’s piloting around the far turn and into the stretch, seemed indecisive which lead to losing all momentum as the eventual
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I liked him some going into the derby, at least before it was guaranteed to come up wet. All things considered he had a pretty good trip on the inside and just didn’t run at all. Not sure how much of the X was surface related compared to three straight big efforts leading in? He hasn’t lit it up in the mornings since either which, in my opinion, has more to do with the noncommittal-committ
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I was influenced by the staggering success of KY Derby runners in the Preakness myself. It was fresh in my mind when I foolishly went against JB and most of the board taking a strong (openly aggressive) stance AGAINST Cloud Computing. One of the poorest handicapping decisions I’ve made.
Historical data is certainly nice and should be used, but never forget each entry is their own entity, i
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Early thoughts on this guy? Looked great out in SF over the winter, ran huge in the Sundland Derby, didn’t have the best trip getting boxed in during the middle stages of the Lexington, but still had his chance and seemed to flatten out late? Looked different in the stretch than his previous 3-4 races for sure.
More time between starts this time, any thoughts on a forward move coming in Bal
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I suspected that there was about a 0% chance they ran Country House back in the Preakness. Way to much heat to handle, only to be magnified when the horse ran up the track.(Just didn’t see this one coming back at his best in two weeks)
Unfortunate for the sport that MS & CH won’t start though, it would have been great theatre, galvanizing the masses on each side of the aisle. Another
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In real time, during the running of the race, the two gentlemen seated beside me were collectively losing their minds do to the ride given to WOW. They’d both had him everyway from Sunday and the ranting started going into the far turn. Interestingly, atleast in light of the outcome, neither were up in arms with MS or Saez, during, after, and after the decision they were of the thought that T
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