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Thoro-Graph
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I think this is all about politics/PR. If there was something wrong with the track that they could find using current techniques, they would have found it by now and done something. The alternative (assuming that there is a problem) is that there is an issue with training/racing practices, and moving the races to Ellis won't do anything about that. It will, however, move racing to an area
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The math does seem to check out. Assuming it was bet like a 6-1 shot in the P5, the 6-1 shot would have taken around 12% of the pool. The winning favorite in the 9th paid $6.50 to win, representing about 25% of the win pool. When the P5 money on the scratched horse is shifted to the favorite, the P5 money originally on the favorite goes from collecting the full net pool to collecting around 25
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Tough beat for all those in Texas who thought they were in line for a big refund from Mac's store if Epicenter held on.
Has anyone seen a write-up anywhere summarizing what Mac did and what his thought process was?
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Kentucky Derby (from Oaks-Derby DD)
# Odds
1 8.9
2 99.2
3 3.6
4 82.3
5 19.4
6 6.7
7 16.6
8 13.3
9 41.2
10 4.8
11 81.8
12 5.3
13 35.0
14 65.4
15 13.6
16 18.2
17 99.2
18 111.6
19 52.1
20 SCR
21 168.2
22 SCR
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Yakteen said in the HRN article re Taiba that Adare Manor is not shipping.
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Interesting article accompanying work video on HRN:
I'll be interested to read what more experience workout watchers have to say about this work. It looked to me like his workmate (3yo who broke maiden in 9th start last out) was waiting on him.
Given that he didn't start until March of his 3yo year, Taiba obviously has had issues. Isn't the sheet theory that you want t
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When you go back and change the variant for a race, do you then review the races in which horses from that race ran back (to see if those variants should also be changed)?
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This probably isn't exactly what you are looking for, but I found it interesting.
Equibase does provide some owner statistics. In general, they are hard to deal with because an owner's stats are not always lumped together. Rather, if they own horses in partnership, that partnership's horses are accounted for separately. Godolphin does not, however, seem to be doing a lot of p
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Godolphin uses multiple trainers. Are you seeing jump-ups for all of them? If so, are they specific to the Godolphin horses or widespread in the trainer's barn?
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One fun thing about Morello with the new timing of the futures pool is that you will have a good idea of his Wood odds before the futures pool closes. That will allow you to evaluate which is the better option: a futures bet or a Wood-Derby parlay.
To keep the numbers simple, say he looks to go off at 2-1 in the Wood and is 17-1 in the futures pool (currently 16-1). Since he would pay $6 in
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Zandon is running in the Blue Grass, not the Wood.
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I know, starting last summer, NYRA cut off the CAW groups from win pool betting after 3 MTP. Based on info o_crunk provided on Twitter:
it looks like the move may have cost NYRA about 10% in win pool handle during the Aqueduct winter meet.
Boscar, you seem pay attention to NYRA betting patterns. Have you noticed any reduction in late odds changes in the win pool?
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Tweets from those who should know suggest that the late action brought the win odds into line with other pools. For example:
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Now scheduled to run April 7-9, closing on Saturday before any of that day's Derby preps are run.
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From:
March 31st - 12 PM - April 2nd, 2022 - 6 PM (Postponed - New Dates TBD)
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 5
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Craig Milkowski's Twitter feed indicates there were timing issues that affected the race:
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There is a statement from Baffert's attorney to be found in the Paulick Report:
While I don't practice law, I generally find that the language of the law is not so obscure as to be inaccessible to laymen willing to struggle through it, so I decided to have a look:
The cited Rule 8:010, Section 4, looks to me like it is intended to distinguish substances like liniments that non
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I found this article interesting:
I'd like to see more public pundits post info like this.
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I just went into the Redboard Room to look at yesterday's Analyses and no Analyis products were there. Is that intentional or is there a malfunction?
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I am curious about another legal issue relating to Baffert. I recently read an article speculating that Baffert's legal team would wait until shortly before the Derby to challenge Churchill's disqualification of Baffert-trained horses from participating in the Derby or earning points in Derby preps. The idea was that they would find a judge to give them a TRO and then run out the cloc
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As indicated by by screen name, my betting handle is not in the TGPS range. I do, however, have a NYRA Bets account. While I think they have been playing from behind technologically, I will say that the responsiveness of their customer service has improved markedly in the past six months or so. Now, when I e-mail them with a question or issue, the response is almost instantaneous.
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Of course, you could look at it the opposite way: that the win price was great value. Based on doubles, the winner figured to pay less than $40.
It is not uncommon (at least in NY) for longshots to pay much more to win than you would project from the doubles. Probably due to wheeling in the doubles, I would guess. In this exacta pool, there was probably some back-wheeling of the favorite.
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After watching the NBC replay on Youtube, I don't see Edgeway as 2w. She came off the rail into the stretch, but was on it for the turn.
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Tony Zhou was on the most recent Sport of Kings podcast. It's a sobering listen with respect to how tough the competition is. It also offers some insights relevant to the "Odds Change" thread. Part of the edge possessed by computer players (as robotic teams or otherwise) is their insight into how races will be bet. Zhou talks mostly about win odds on the podcast, but I have to
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I think that if you are betting without looking at odds projections from other pools, you are making a mistake. I know DRF Bets includes odds projections from rolling doubles in its wager pad, and I think the same projections are included in Formulator. Other ADW's may have reasons for not doing the same, but I don't know what they are. The math is relatively straightforward. Instead
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