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Thoro-Graph
Oaklawn Park
5/2/20
Arkansas Derby D2
# Odds
1 43.3
2 SCR
3 11.5
4 4.3
5 1.2
6 105.5
7 5.6
8 SCR
9 33.4
10 5.9
11 6.2
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Oaklawn Park
5/2/20
Arkansas Derby D1
# Odds
1 0.2
2 101.3
3 82.0
4 5.7
5 129.1
6 SCR
7 SCR
8 13.2
9 33.0
10 58.8
11 9.6
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Did he differentiate between Saratoga with and without fans? I'd be surprised if there is racing with fans anywhere this summer. I recently read somewhere (TDN?) that, even without fans, NYRA would still move racing to Saratoga if allowed to do so because (a) the brand is so strong and (b) the turf at Belmont would not withstand an uninterrupted meet all summer long.
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I think the recent spate of press releases from tracks with nothing concrete to announce reflects the upcoming competition for horse flesh you mention. With horses getting ready to ship out of Oaklawn, the tracks all want to claim a share of a diminishing race-ready horse population. Tom Amoss mentioned on the NYRA Bets/FSN show this weekend that his stable was down 30%, with many owners decidi
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Will Rogers Downs
4/28/20
Race 8
# Odds
1 1.8
2 9.2
3 SCR
4 5.2
5 40.2
6 15.6
7 4.9
8 21.3
9 2.1
10 SCR
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Clicking through to the TDN article, it is interesting that Gulfstream provides different (presumably more accurate) post time information to Equibase than it provides to bettors. I react badly to being provided with intentionally inaccurate information and view it as a black mark for the industry (especially TVG) that they let Gulfstream slide.
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I wonder if the track even knew the full story when the payouts were posted. I'm not a computer guy, but I'd guess that the tote company's computers have an algorithm to determine whether a jackpot should be paid out. They probably store each ticket as a bunch of sequences and then compare all those sequences with the winning sequence(s). In this case, the dead heat resulted in
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I am curious how Oaklawn's bottom line looks. Take away the on-track handle (where the track does not have to share the takeout with an ADW), and I wonder whether the net revenue from horse racing is actually better.
Of course, the big loss is the casino money. In general, I think the racino companies are not really interested in running races if they cannot open the casino. In Louisia
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Oaklawn Stakes
# Odds
1 2.6
2 65.7
3 43.5
4 2.8
5 27.3
6 21.3
7 25.2
8 3.9
9 12.8
10 70.3
11 34.8
12 5.3
13 26.1
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Optics may be part of it, but I think a negative attitude towards horse racing in Los Angeles County is also contributing. In general, a lot of people are using the pandemic as a basis for achieving the same things they wanted to achieve before it hit.
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I have no inside information, but I have read that this is in the hands of Los Angeles County officials. This is the County where the DA created a task force to investigate potential criminal behavior in connection with the wave of horse fatalities at Santa Anita last winter. Reopening makes sense to me, but I am guessing the political hurdles to doing so are high.
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Gulfstream Park
3/28/20
Florida Derby
# Odds
1 16.7
2 91.1
3 SCR
4 SCR
5 4.9
6 SCR
7 1.3
8 149.9
9 4.2
10 29.1
11 SCR
12 2.3
13 183.2
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I note that Castellano has not ridden in Florida since March 15 and was coming from New York. I have not seen any reports that anyone on the backside in Florida has tested positive.
Regarding your one-track idea, I wonder if this could lead to a more permanent track consolidation. With casino subsidies absent for the present and likely to be under siege when casinos reopen, this crisis may e
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The pace was very slow in the race for older horses. I'm guessing Beyer broke it out as they gave By My Standards a 98 and Wells Bayou only a 91.
Ny Traffic should get a slightly better TG fig than Wells Bayou (as result of being wider on both turns), maybe getting close to his big sprint top at Parx way back.
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Louisiana Derby
# Odds
1 8.5
2 15.6
3 3.6
4 11.5
5 70.4
6 29.6
7 36.3
8 8.7
9 18.1
10 3.3
11 24.2
12 22.1
13 6.1
14 12.7
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From what I've read, it seems Churchill isn't just planning to run the Oaks and Derby on September 4 and 5. They are planning to move all the supporting stakes to those dates as well. That's going to require everyone to rethink their big days. It is probably too early to start making definitive plans now. A lot will depend on the course of the coronavirus and how much the abse
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I do have a couple of "all others" tickets and looked at the rules the other day. I would say it is not clear. The rules talk about the Derby being run on May 2 and the Oaks being run on May 1 and say that if the race is not run, there will be refunds. Does not run in May equal "not run?" The rules also have clause dealing with "unforeseen" circumstances. It say
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In my mind, the horses are the key to this. Unless you send them all out to farms, they need people to care for them. You only need a relatively small number of additional people to work them in the mornings and run races in front of an empty grandstand in the afternoon. Doing so would allow you to maintain an income stream for the backstretch. Of course, the economics change if the casinos t
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Not clear to me what happens to the horses. Do they have to be turned out on a farm?
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Seems like an example of how pace can affect figures. If you give Nadal a pair, then the two horses that get new tops are the two that dropped back early.
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Nadal's Beyer is apparently 96. Timeform US is 120, which is within a point of the winners of both the Essex and the Azeri. Charlatan was faster at Santa Anita. Craig Milkowski said on Twitter that making figs for Oaklawn was not particularly difficult
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The caller seems fine to me, but I'd like to be able to see the whole field so I can see if anyone is coming from the back and how fast.
Further, as I understood it, Gulfstream was designed with a smaller grandstand because Frank Stronach (rightly, and never more so than now) thought racetracks would primarily become TV studios. Why then is the starting gate camera for 2-turn dirt races
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Rebel
# Odds
1 1.2
2 73.7
3 4.4
4 4.9
5 8.7
6 4.4
7 57.0
8 10.8
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Loved the link.
The 5/2 morning line on Nadal seems high to me, but we'll see. Since he hasn't run that fast and needs to answer the 2-turn question, I'll have to go against him as the favorite.
On Three Technique, I think Irad was committed to ride a Baffert (maybe Eight Rings) who ultimately was not sent to the race when it failed to split. Eight Rings hasn't run sin
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I agree with you. SGF-1000, although not legal, seems relatively benign. It seems to have been the jumping-off point for the investigation, and, if I read the indictment correctly, that's all they've really got on Servis or Maximum Security. They tie Navarro and the other defendants to the other, more abusive, drugs, but the commentary I've heard seems to be painting both traine
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What I'm reading is that testing in humans may begin later this year, but that any vaccine will not be available until next year.
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Frank -
Thanks. I had seen this article before, but went back and read it more carefully after you posted the link. Natalie Voss does good work, going deeper than most horse racing writers. Even here, however, the discussion of SGF-1000 is mostly about what claims are made, not about evidence of what it contains or does. People seem to be treating it as Jason Servis's "juice.&quo
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How does that work with off-track training centers like Palm Meadows, Fair Hill, and San Luis Rey Downs? Would they have to be certified in some way? You would also have an issue with horses shipping in from other tracks without the same rules.
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