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Thoro-Graph
Preakness
# Odds
1 51.9
2 14.2
3 2.4
4 8.4
5 6.7
6 59.5
7 18.1
8 10.1
9 1.8
10 12.0
11 41.2
Note: Odds projected from probables (not just will-pays) for the Pimlico Special- Preakness DD.
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Full disclosure: I don't play pick-5's. They are beyond my ability and bankroll.
My guess, however, is that they don't know who the post-time favorite will be when they post the will-pays, so they don't count tickets with scratched horses (11/14/15/16) as winners. Under my theory, you would have gotten the full $1,120.80 (for $1) if the someone other than the 9 (maybe the
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Look at the Equibase chart you linked to. The winning numbers in the last leg were 9/11/14/15/16/1. If the 9 had not been the post-time favorite, then 9 would have been the only winning number, and the payoff would have been higher. Ed DeRosa gives the same explanation in the Twitter thread you linked to.
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As a practical matter, neither the track nor the ADW could know for certain what the accurate will-pays were. As it turned out, the 9 went off as the post-time favorite, so all selections of horses that were late scratches defaulted to the 9. If another horse had gone favored, the payoffs would have been different. I don't know how tracks deal with this when posting will-pays.
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The racing press headlines show that Del Mar handle was up for the meet. In fact, from what I am seeing on Twitter, handle on races run at Del Mar was down. The discrepancy arises because Del Mar includes in its handle amounts bet by California residents on out-of-state tracks, which this year included betting on the Oaks and Derby cards.
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Kudos to TGJB for the call on Authentic.
I was watching the Churchill feed, not the NBC broadcast. The scroll on the Churchilll feed showed front glue-on shoes as a change for Tiz the Law. I did not hear the talking heads mention it. Did they say anything on NBC about whether it was really a change and, if so, what caused it?
Handle on both the Derby and the undercard was down almost 50%
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Just to clarify a couple of things:
2w and 3w on the first turn were better than 1w. 4w and out were not.
The traffic difference I found was only a point or less. Since being wider on the first turn usually leads to being wider on the second turn, there is still generally a benefit to being inside on the first turn (e.g., 3w3w vs 1w1w is 2 points of ground loss at 10 furlongs and more tha
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I think the effect of ground loss is often offset, at least in part, by the benefits of a cleaner trip. I analyzed some Derby stats a couple of years ago and found that, among horses who ran reasonably well, horses in the 2 or 3 path going into the first turn ran between three-quarters and one point better relative to their previous top than their counterparts getting a rail trip.
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One thing that the delay from May to September has not changed: I am fairly confident that the seminar will mention ground loss being important here. Given his post and the way he's been ridden recently, Tiz the Law will likely be wide throughout.
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I heard what you heard, but did not fully understand it. It had to do with the MTO's being part of an entry and bettors having to know which part(s) of an entry would be running. It may be significant that, according to Frank D's post, the scratches were made just before 90 minutes before first post. Does betting open 90 minutes before first post? I don't know enough about the
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This is a blog post in which the author recalls his experience building and running a model for a CRW group:
A lot will be familiar to those who have been reading Mathcapper's posts, but I found the results interesting.
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This a Twitter post from o_crunk yesterday (Sunday):
"SAR handled $19.5M yesterday, their lowest Saturday handle since 8/11/2012. Every day this week has been down 20% y/o/y at SAR. DMR handled $21.6M yesterday for their big Pacific Classic card, a marginal increase over the same card last year which handled $20.8M."
In fairness, the unexpected storm Saturday decimated field sizes
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From Dave Grening's Twitter account:
At Saratoga Saturday, races 1,3,5 and 7 are OFF the turf. Races 1 and 3 run at 5 1/2 furlongs. Races 5 and 7 are run at 7 furlongs.
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The NYRA Bets site says they are having tote issues. First post pushed back an hour to 2:10 EDT.
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From what I can find, Runhappy has had two starters each at Saratoga and Del Mar. Best finish was by Peachy Queen: 3d behind Lucifer's Lair at the Spa.
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Inspired by your post and the Chad Brown thread, I pulled up some recent sheets (NY, KY, and CA) and compared trainers' TG-figure-based stats for the last 90 days with their overall stats. I hypothesized that, if they had stopped taking an edge that they were taking pre-indictment, their percentage of tops plus pairs would have dropped. In fact, most of the big names have a higher percenta
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NYRA has had nickel breakage on low-odds bets (up to 4/1 I think) for quite a while. Steven Crist was instrumental in the change from dime to nickel breakage. My guess is that you just don't see it displayed that way too often because most fractions are awkward. 3/4 works. 17/20 does not and would probably be displayed as 4/5 even though the actual payout would be $3.70 (not $3.60) on a $
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TGJB -
TG has Harvey's Lil Goil's very fast Busanda top a lot faster than Beyer (maybe 4 points after adjusting for weight and ground loss). Craig Milkowski has talked about the difficulty of making figures for Aqueduct this winter. How confident do you feel in the figure?
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True, nothing is certain, but some research has been done and, from what I've read, the greater uncertainty is about how long immunity lasts. The way they test a vaccine is to see whether it causes antibodies to develop (and what type). Given what we know, I'd rather be next to someone with antibodies than someone without them, regardless of what state they come from.
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I have seen a lot of press about restricting who can ride in the Kentucky Derby or Oaks or back home after riding in Kentucky. I don't understand why jockeys who have already tested positive for the virus (e.g., Castellano, Saez, Garcia, Prat) and now test negative for the virus and positive for antibodies should not be allowed to ride wherever they want without being subject to quarantine.
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I'd ignore it. There is some discussion on the paceadvantage board indicating that administrative voiding of claims is often for paperwork defects. Interestingly, Spirit Animal's first work after the race appears to have been in company with a Rodriguez horse, but the last three have been in company with Brown horses.
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I remember that race on America's Day At the Races. You can go back and find the broadcast on Youtube. They announced on the show (at around 3:13) that Spirit Animal would be going to Rudy Rodriguez.
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This was mentioned in Craig Milkowski's Twitter feed. He says that the running line is wrong, but the final finish position is right. Since TG does not incorporate pace, it shuld not affect the fig.
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I am ignoring the lidocaine positive. I suspect Gamine looks better on other figures. See this thread:
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I have some familiarity with lab work, but none with how the split sample process works. I know that if the split samples came back positive, it will be a while before the stewards act. If, however, the split samples came back negative, we should have heard something by now, right?
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I listened to Paul Matties on the Public Handicapper podcast yesterday. He said that so far, on his figures, former Jason Servis horses are actually running better with their new trainers than they did with Servis.
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I am seeing on Twitter that Performer will scratch with a minor ankle injury.
With regard to weights, be sure to check the overweights. I have read that, because the jocks cannot use the hot box, jockeys have decided that they will be adding two pounds to horses slated to carry 118 or less and one pound to horses slated to carry 119.
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The unanimous DQ of War of Will from 5th in yesterday's Shoemaker Mile marks two weekends in a row that the Santa Anita stewards have DQ'd a horse for interference at the start. (Yesterday's DQ was particularly odd because the horse inside War of Will (Voodoo Song) was already going left before War of Will made contact.) So far it has involved only minor placings, but DQ's t
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