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Thoro-Graph
TGJB -
When the time for the Champagne was corrected, did you have to go back and change the figures or (since you are primarily making figures off the horses) did it not have much impact? If memory serves, the Beyer was made 9 points faster.
More generally, I know there has been a lot of chatter recently about incorrect times, run-ups, etc. at a lot of tracks. I am curious how much that
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What's interesting to me is that two of the three overages were detected after workouts (not races) at a training center.
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What I have read is not that NYRA is going to do this, but that it has already happened and that late odds changes have been dampened as a result.
It's interesting that, from what I have seen, the mainstream racing press has not written about this. I don't know if it's because they've decided not to do so or because the tracks prefer to keep their relationships with the CR
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The only thing I see about chairs is that they are not allowed in the building or on the apron.
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Essential Quality got pounded in the Manhattan DD betting
Race 11 - Belmont Stakes
# Odds
1 35.3
2 0.9
3 7.9
4 5.1
5 61.8
6 5.8
7 4.0
8 30.8
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Some projected odds for the Belmont Stakes card based on two-day DD's:
Race 3 - Woody Stephens
# Odds
1 8.6
2 7.7
3 0.9
4 3.8
5 13.9
6 4.0
Race 5 - Acorn
# Odds
1 4.3
2 6.7
3 8.1
4 3.2
5 22.1
6 1.0
Race 9 - Met Mile
# Odds
1 4.5
2 5.4
3 4.4
4 19.3
5 8.4
6 0.9
Race 11 - Belmont Stakes
# Odds
1 17.4
2 1.4
3 5.5
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I am curious how this will play out. As I understand it, Baffert's NY horses have already been running out of John Terranova's barn, although in Baffert's name. Will the owners of horses like Charlatan and Gamine move them to Terranova if they want to run in NY, and how will that be received?
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Medina Spirit is the close third choice in the doubles behind Midnight Bourbon and Concert Tour. I'll be surprised if this turns out to be the case in the win pool, but I'll play Medina Spirit if it does.
#PimlicoRC
5/15/21
Race 13 - Preakness (DD from Black-Eyed Susan)
# Odds
1 32.4
2 14.3
3 3.3
4 7.1
5 2.9
6 10.7
7 21.3
8 17.0
9 11.4
10 2.9
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Quote from Craig Robertson, Baffert's attorney, in Wall Street Journal:
"They provide that list , we choose a laboratory from that list. The sample gets sent to that laboratory and they perform the testing. And then the results come back. There's no way that can possibly happen before Saturday."
Are you kidding me? KHRC must have a list at the ready. Baffert presuma
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There is no reason the split sample results should not be available this week. I know they ordinarily take longer, but this is not an ordinary case. Money should be no object, and Baffert should be in a rush to be cleared.
The KHRC should also announce whether there were other betamethasone positives over Derby weekend. If there was a problem with test barn personnel or the testing, then it
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I assume the box for Whitmore is just a technical glitch?
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In case you missed it, this is a well-done piece by Marcus Hersh regarding how top trainers are adapting to the Lasix rules and what, if any, effect the changes have had on performance (as measured by Beyers),
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Race 12 - Kentucky Derby (from Race 11 DD)
# Odds
1 6.6
2 95.4
3 75.9
4 63.8
5 52.5
6 34.2
7 18.0
8 15.6
9 7.1
10 15.1
11 30.3
12 36.9
13 92.9
14 2.9
15 4.0
16 SCR
17 7.7
18 33.9
19 40.6
20 53.9
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Race 12 - Kentucky Derby (from Oaks DD)
# Odds
1 7.5
2 52.9
3 69.7
4 46.1
5 49.6
6 29.4
7 16.7
8 11.6
9 7.0
10 13.5
11 28.9
12 46.5
13 45.2
14 3.6
15 4.1
16 SCR
17 8.9
18 33.0
19 36.4
20 45.1
Obviously does not include the Mattress Mac effect
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From Race 10 DD probables
Race 11 - Kentucky Oaks
# Odds
1 17.4
2 43.1
3 6.6
4 11.4
5 6.9
6 3.0
7 SCR
8 59.2
9 43.3
10 2.4
11 42.4
12 5.8
13 136.7
14 20.1
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Smart of him to let people know his bet is coming. It encourages others to adjust around him and is likely to improve the odds he will get.
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The article is primarily about how much money from various betting channels finds its way into the purse account, but I was more interested in the discussion of Tony Zhou's computer-centric approach to betting. Two things that struck me:
He does not know why his computer likes a horse, just that, at the odds, it does.
He is gleaning signal from the time at which money is bet on specif
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To me, your last point is the critical one. Racing depends on horseplayers who are either willing to lose money or oblivious to the fact that they very probably will. When they think they are being played for suckers, that goes away.
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I looked back at the median pre-Derby TG tops for Derby fields since the point system was implemented:
2013: 2.0
2014: 1.75
2015: 1.375
2016: 2.875
2017: 2.5
2018: 1.375
2019: 2.25
2020: Not run in May
2021: ???
I obviously have not seen the figures for the last round of preps, but based on my guesses, I would not be surprised to see this year's median be 3 or above.
If so,
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It would not be unusual for me to be off by a point in my estimates of ground loss, but I have the first four all earning figures within a quarter point of each other.
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This would not be the first time that I had the ground loss wrong, but I had Proxy inside Mandaloun on both turns in the Risen Star (tipping out turning for home) and earning a figure that was 1.5 to 2 points slower. Proxy is second-time Velazquez and adding blinkers. I wonder if Velazquez suggested them.
I don't know what to make of Midnight Bourbon's recent bullet work.
I ag
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TGJB -
Craig Milkowski and David Aragona spent the last 12 minutes of the Timeform US Pacecast posted yesterday talking about how difficult it has been to make speed figures for Aqueduct this winter due to the magnitude and frequency of intra-card changes in track speed. I know, because of your methodology, TG would be less impacted by this kind of issue than others. Could you comment on whe
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By my math, there were only $2.50 in winning tickets. A single ticket scooping the pool would only have gotten $105,077.
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Thanks for your answer.
I understand that tracks don't stay the same speed. My question was more about the relative weight you give the time of a race (admittedly small relative to other figure makers, although I think you pushed back on Paul Matties's assertion that you seemed to ignore it entirely) versus past figures of the horses and whether those relative weights are changed if
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TGJB -
I am starting with the assumption that (even absent bleeding) horses run a little bit faster with Lasix than without it. My question is how you approach a race in which all the horses have prior form with Lasix but run without it today (e.g., a stakes race) in the middle of a card with Lasix allowed for most horses. If you emphasize a variant based on how fast all the races on the car
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From what I've read so far, I'm inclined to believe that the success of Jason Servis (not necessarily Navarro) was more likely due to his use of corticosteroids than SGF-1000. I also think Servis and Navarro were not alone in abusing this class of drugs. Mark Casse complained about this with respect to clenbuterol earlier this year:
I also note that Gamine's positive i
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From 2-day doubles:
Breeders' Cup Distaff
# Odds
1 21.2
2 18.1
3 18.4
4 11.1
5 2.3
6 52.2
7 34.3
8 14.9
9 13.0
10 1.0
Breeders' Cup Turf
# Odds
1 9.1
2 2.4
3 3.3
4 27.3
5 38.7
6 8.4
7 9.7
8 25.7
9 7.6
10 5.2
Breeders' Cup Classic
# Odds
1 20.2
2 3.4
3 15.6
4 2.5
5 64.4
6 32.7
7 30.7
8 3
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TGJB -
Did you have to do anything special with the figures for the Black-Eyed Susan? Unlike the figures for the other dirt stakes on the card, they seem slow relative to other figure markers.
Probably unrelated: the sheets show only one turn of ground for the Delaware Oaks (7/4/2020), which included Dream Marie, Hopeful Growth, and Project Whiskey. 8.5 furlongs at Delaware is a 2-turn r
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