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> We also said a horse had to be fast enough going in— we don’t make a practice of predicting 8 point tops.
Correctamundo. That's solid advice, JB. Thanks.
I just thought it was an interesting factoid if he did fit the profile/"individual criteria for horses that run well in the Derby." Many in the race didn't.
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My question is regarding the Derby seminar and the Derby profile outlined in the seminar.
Any horse can have the pattern. It just so happens it's RICH STRIKE in this particular example.
I think the answer to my question is: NO. He doesn't fit the profile because the 3yo top wasn't a breakthrough of the 2yo top.
I guess we'll never know, though. You closed the thread,
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I'm only comparing the 9 and 9.75 this year to the 9 last year as a 2yo.
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Did RICH STRIKE check all three boxes?
1. Three or less preps
2. Pair of tops, or small new top
3. Has not developed more than four points off 2yo top
Does a pair-up of the 2yo top qualify under criteria #2?
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Heading back to Japan.
Michael Barzalona and Christophe Lemaire beat the Americans at their game to the first turn, but unfortunately for them there was another mile left to be accounted for.
It would be nice to see what CROWN PRIDE could do with a more realistic pace scenario. He hung in there for a mile after running a much faster 2f than JACKIE'S WARRIOR did in the CD Stakes at 7f.
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I gotta stretch in the mornin
I gotta fly out of bed
I can't depend on no "Lady Luck"
I gotta use my own head ...
I love my Uncle Ted, but that's the worst advice he ever gave me. ;-)
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... That which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet?
Buddy calls me Thursday night wants to know who I'm playing in the Derby. He only plays the Triple Crown races and the Breeder's Cup.
I say, "it's tough, but EPICENTER has been most impressive leading up to the Derby. Careful, though. I expect some randomness due to the large field."
Fast-forwa
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I knew that couldn't be right regarding the stakes races.
They offered more stakes, but the vast majority were for under $50K.
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I've seen SHARP GARY in person as well. I can testify that he is definitely a SHARP handicapper ;-) I "like" him as well ;-)
I don't know much about Detroit Race Course. They're obviously best known for their Michigan Mile and One-Eighth Handicap.
What other stakes did they offer? Not much ... unless you're a Michigan-Bred.
1989 American Racing Manual shows
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Tampa Bay Downs
Track officials say there's nothing to get excited about. It's just another "delay in the cycling of odds."
Whatever.
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How good was LOST CODE
The narrator, at the end of the video, makes mention of his speed figures:
"His races as a 4yo left the figure handicappers rechecking their calculations.
One New York figure-house, which rates horses from a perfect 0 & up, assigned LOST CODE a spectacular 2 for the Razorback Handicap ... and then a unprecedented five straight 0's for his next five ra
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Not a bad week for LADY SHIRL
THAT'S A NICE Illinois-Bred filly who used to roam these parts for Noel Hickey back in the day.
LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE (3rd G1 Jenny Wiley) and SHIRL'S SPEIGHT (1st G1 Maker's Mark Mile) both trace back to the beautiful LADY SHIRL.
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I guess I shouldn't be surprised after watching the replay again. She was in the three path on both turns while the top two past the wire had the rail on both turns.
I don't know how to adjust for ground loss. Did she give up two points on the turns?
I guess she ran ok.
On to the next one.
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Well, I'm still trying to figure out how LONG RANGE TODDY ran so well at Keeneland yesterday. Dallas Stewart ... your buddy.
I bet REINVESTMENT RISK as well. Was getting excited when he was at 9/1 on the board.
With that said, I had to play a exacta with the favorite on top as well. $16? I'll take it.
SPEAKER'S CORNER is a beast.
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Any opinions on DIVINE HUNTRESS who ran in the Gazelle Stakes yesterday? What am I missing here?
She ran the 5 two races back with ease. Then the off race at the Fair Grounds where she had a little bit of trouble in a race void of pace.
20/1? What's not to like? A 5 looked good in the race ... especially at the price.
Looked good turning for home and then she just stopped.
Surpr
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MISS MATTIE B
She has a slow top, maybe too slow, but I really like the pattern and she figures to get a lot better trip than she got LTO.
I think she's worth a look at 12/1 and up.
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Turf Blankets
I never realized how labor intensive the process was. I thought they just hooked up a tarp to a tractor and laid it down.
Any other jurisdictions doing this other than the NYRA?
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Tavasco Wrote:
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> I don't have the sheets for Oaklawn so I sure am
> curious if the Cyberknive's line could be
> considered a recovery pattern? I see he's
> currently @ 6/1 so not under the radar.
You're hot. Who ya got in the next race? :-)
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Tavasco Wrote:
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> I don't have the sheets for Oaklawn so I sure am
> curious if the Cyberknive's line could be
> considered a recovery pattern? I see he's
> currently @ 6/1 so not under the radar.
A recovery to what? He has five lifetime starts. ;-)
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The filly can beat me at a short price. I'm gonna take a shot with DOPPELGANGER.
He showed some impressive speed in the San Vicente trying to stay close to FORBIDDEN KINGDOM. In the San Felipe they decided to come from out of it. Today I think they will show more speed ... at least I hope they do.
A new top and a better trip could be enough to beat the filly.
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Where are all the handicappers?
Anyone like O CAPTAIN? At 87/1 he broke bad in the FOY and still ran well. What's he going to do if he breaks well with Rosario up? I'll pay to find out.
SIMPLIFICATION the one to beat, IMHO. Fastest horse.
STRIKE HARD is also interesting based on the ML. Brutal trip LTO. Has the rail and a touch of speed. Could save valuable ground under those
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There goes my admiration for the NYRA. Article states they're part owner of Elite Turf Club.
Edit: Oops. That's NYRA Bets as co-owner.
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Is the wager log provided in the article just for FAST BUCK? I'm thinking there was plenty of time there to look for other inefficiencies. All you need is a second ... or two. ;-)
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Seems kind of silly to me if the only horse to beat EPICENTER in a Derby prep didn't make it to the starting gate first Saturday in May. He's 28th on the leaderboard last time I checked.
Last race is better than it looks on paper, IMHO. Graham fell asleep on this horse in the Louisiana Derby. Waited too long to make his move. Wouldn't mind seeing a jockey change if he did make i
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Owned by: Barry and Joni Butzow.
Woztub.
Get me another beer, Harry. :-)
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ZOZOS spelled backwards is: SOZOZ. I really do miss Harry Caray. :-)
Dude, 7/5 on EPICENTER, or 8/1 on ZOZOS? I'm all over ZOZOS at that price.
I see absolutely no reason this horse should bounce off that last race. If anything he should improve off it. He was asked to run for like 4f ... and looked super impressive doing it.
Just my humble opinion.
Now, back to the ballgame.
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I went into this race interested in WONDRWHERECRAIGIS, but came away liking DR. SCHIVEL.
WONDRWHERECRAIGIS has won his last five races all in wire-to-wire fashion. I don't know if he'll be able to do that in the Golden Shaheen.
DR. SCHIVEL is fast enough to get the lead here if Prat wants it, IMHO.
I say put him on the lead and take your chances over a track that been kind to
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Pace is complicated for me to deal with.
Thanks for the input. I appreciate it. I'll keep tinkering with it as I learn more. One day I hope to be on-target.
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Yeah, the card at the Fair Grounds looks interesting. If I ever bet on another CDI track it will not be this coming weekend. Have fun. I'll stick with the NYRA & Oaklawn for now.
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