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Thoro-Graph
This has been an interesting and engaging topic. I came to the following conclusions about the whole scenario.
1. When Delgado was replaced by Espinoza the horse benefitted by a rider who no longer tried to have the horse on the rail, or moving the horse up in between horses. As mjellish said initially, Chrome likes to stalk on the outside.
2. When I looked at video and then the result chart
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smalltimer
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According to EquiMed the makers of FLAIR Nasal Strips:
"FLAIR nasal strips are scientifically proven to reduce lung bleeding and can reduce bleeding as much as the drug Lasix/Salix when horses are running to fatigue."
EquiMed editorial 5/5/2012
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smalltimer
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I think in the last 10 years the only Preakness winner to win the Belmont was Alex.
8 of the last 10 years the winner didn't even run in the Preakness.
The Belmont winners have come from the Tesio, Barbaro, Dwyer.
Seems the best results have come from horses who ran out in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and ran back in the Derby.
There are other strong indicators, but I haven't
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smalltimer
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Not including the Apple Blossom and 2 Breeder's Cup Classics where the Z people were more than willing to take on Rachel.
History has shown that us real racing fans were really cheated on that one.
Jimbo, I know you and I can agree on that point.
Have a good one.
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smalltimer
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Richie,
Its just like the TSD's on the Florida/Ohio/Nebraska circuit as well as a couple others.
That equipment change (Cornell Collar) is denoted on the bottom of the daily programs. I don't buy the DRF so I don't know if they do or don't denote that for the player.
That's a reason some of the trainers on that Florida circuit continue to light up the board. Some d
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smalltimer
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joe,
The gelding thing is one of the reasons I included Ring Weekend on the bottom of several of my supers. He was gelded prior to this 3 year old year, once that turf race was over, he started to look like a real racehorse. I knew he wouldn't get the trip he had at Tampa Bay, and Garcia said the horse hated the Calder surface, so I tossed that race.
I have a lot of respect for Graham Mo
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smalltimer
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Mike, we both know the rule can go away if they want it to. I don't recall horses having been "harmed" by wearing one, rather, maybe using one and finding the horse showed no improvement in performance.
The worst scenario is Chrome skips the Belmont, and then a horse he defeated in the first two legs comes back and wins the race without the Derby/Preakness champion there.
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I know one of the horse owners suggested Chrome use it and has since reeled off 6 straight wins. The guy may dig his heels in and put the clowns on notice.
There have been lots of trainers who use the nasal strip, some horses it may have helped, others not so much. Seems like if it helped all animals, they would all be wearing one.
The New York powers that be apparently think the strip helps
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smalltimer
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I read where Doug O'Neill was told I'll Have Another could not wear the nasal strip in the Belmont either. That horse had the first 2 legs in the books and scratched before the race, so the issue became irrelevant.
Seems like if the rule applied to I'll Have Another under identical circumstances, the rule should apply to Chrome as well.
I'm not pro or anti Chrome, just the
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smalltimer
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But where do you get Thomas suggesting that SI beats Rod or vise versa?
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smalltimer
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Mike, did you read that about this race or just making an assumption?
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smalltimer
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You mean other than the "he's insane," "He's a "nut job", and "he's nuts" comments about the TG host?
There's a difference between attacking the numbers or a competing site, and personally attacking a person.
I may be full of it, but if a person on a public board was denigrating me like that they would likely be asked to prove it in a
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smalltimer
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I imagine the next progression in these numbers would be those horses with 2 preps prior to the Derby and those with 3 preps prior to Derby.
I would guess there's a correlation in the overall numbers of the forward/paired/regressed results, may show the difference between the large forward moves and the large regression moves.
Seems too time consuming to break this down now, but would be a
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smalltimer
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Rick B.,
Chrome's spacing between races since November has been:
57/51/34/42/36/28 and now 14 days.
Seems with 3-4 other speed types in the Preakness, if they all break well it should take a fair amount of effort for Chrome to reach the front by the top of the stretch.
I'm not concerned if he wins or not, I just want him to have to work hard for at least a mile plus.
His wins have
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smalltimer
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Impressive, is that the same horse who ran 1 1/16 on the turf at CD today?
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smalltimer
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I was in the service in Texas. I went to Wichita Falls and spent a week there one night.
Good luck
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smalltimer
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tommy,
I don't play these types of races hardly ever. But if I do, I almost have to think the 2, 6, 7 would have to be able to run second in the race.
Some guys out there probably have a good handle on this type of smallish field with a strong favorites and how they might approach a wager.
Good luck, hope you grab a nice return.
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smalltimer
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Rick B.,
Thank you for the comments. Actually I went to a track meet for my grandson and have yet to place a wager at that venue.
Like yourself with your outstanding profit on Invisible Ink, I was able to score a huge profit by playing Giacomo on top in the '05 Derby. So you and I are both members of the "ahead of the Derby for life" club.
There is always something to be learn
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smalltimer
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Rick B.,
The point I was trying to make when I started the topic was what factors the guys use to arrive at the decision to put their money down.
People that rely strictly TG numbers will take their lumps some years, other years they will do quite well. Same for all the other factors that are being mentioned.
Its no different than looking at a prospectus, or a stock offering or even the stats
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smalltimer
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I'm curious as the importance the TG crowd used to make their final wagering decision on the Derby. In other words, what percentages did you attach to the importance of the following factors in helping you decide which horse(s) you'd play.
1. TG Data
2. TG Pattern into the Derby
3. TG Seminar
4. CD track bias (perceived or considered)
5. CD Morning Line Odds, or Expected Po
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smalltimer
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I watched the video and I heard what Blasi said. His language was disgusting.
We're not going to see, NBC or any of the major networks air that type of video. If you think they should have, then you're dreaming.
The public wrath is not gonna be grounds for Asmussen to be in jail, it would likely take an actual offense to have occurred that showed Asmussen committing animal cruel.
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smalltimer
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TGJB,
I know you have connections. Any chance you can get us an early view on the Preakness from other reknown experts?
After yesterday, I think the board would appreciate you using your connections and influence to gather early Preakness insights from Johnny Weir and Tara Lipinsky?
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Nice language.
I think for Asmussen the bigger problem isn't PETA.
I've always been made to believe that hiring undocumented workers and manufacturing SSAN's can be real punitive if they want it to be.
I'm done of the that fiasco.
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smalltimer
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I looked and seen a half dozen or so today. Odd there when they are mentioning the value of the sheets with a couple exceptions all the talk was about them identifying how poorly WTC was gonna run, and how well Wise Dan would run. A couple comments about Wicked Strong's poor trip.
Haven't read one post about any of their people making money on the Derby.
I check out that site to see
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This topic did not draw a lot of attention because we all know the Dosage Index went out the window too long ago to remember. Since I join the rest of the room in considering Dosage a non-factor, I still wanted to respect a fellow TG'er who put a fair amount of time and effort into his theory.
The only category I had any interest in was the Fast Contender with a Dosage of < 3.50.
Thi
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Mjellish, that's exactly what I told my wife when Chrome moved up inside of Samraat. Chrome may have still just outfinished everyone, but he'd have gotten hung up a little longer, it could of been real interesting with Curve running late.
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His top 6 for the Derby were:
Danza (3rd)
Chrome (Win)
Wicked (4th)
Dance with Fate (out)
Ride with Curlin (out)
Commanding Curve (2nd)
The super in his 6 top horses. Somethere there for the 4th straight year.
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smalltimer
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Looks like Weir wears the weighted boots so he doesn't float out of the picture.
I got a grand says Rosie can take him.
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