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Thoro-Graph
big,
I've added the following to your list of Maker's Derby horses.
Last track where the horse prepped, days between last prep and Derby result.
Looks like Maker has tried lots of changes to find the right formula.
General A Rod (GP) on 35 days rest, finished 11th
Harry's Holiday (KEE) on 21 days rest finished 16th
Vicar's In Trouble (FG) on 35 days res
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Correct. I missed that one because it was at Santa Anita at Oak Tree and not Santa Anita designation. He was 4-1-0-0 there.
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I think he won with Hansen in 2011 at Churchill.
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Maker at Santa Anita all-time, 8-0-0-2. In fairness, 5 of the 8 were double digit. Both horses ran 3rd in 7f races.
Better success at CD, but I don't plan to research it.
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joemama,
There was minimal difference since Churchill eliminated the .10 super play and made the super a $ 1.00 minimum about 4-5 years ago.
Quickly since 2010 the tri wagers were 25.4M, in 2011 25M, 2012 28.7M, 2013 27M, and 2014 27.5M.
That's about all I'm gonna do on this string.
Good luck
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Fairmount,
I think sort of dovetails into a little bit of mjellish explained in how he structures wagers.
I'm using the last 15 superfectas in the Kentucky Derby to see if this helps anyone. I'll start with 2014 and work down to 2000, and I'm using the $ 1.00 superfecta payoff.
2014. Favorite Chrome at 3/1 wins. Super is 3-1,38-1,9-1,7-1 and pays
$ 7500.00. There is a 9
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No doubt your standards are higher than most.
In two separate posts you infer that Baffert got his balls whacked, and then in this message you suggest that Bode also got his balls whacked.
I've never actually had my balls whacked, but it does sound painful.
Seriously dude, what difference should it make to you if hoards of people choose to put their money on AP? They have a rig
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RICH,
Thanks. The numbers I used were for the entire '13 and '14 racing season at the named tracks, and the '15 season from Jan through yesterday.
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Danny,
I didn't do an analysis, I said its very "non-specific." I spent 10 minutes pulling generic data from Timeform on Pletcher 4yo+ at different venues.
I can't argue the tracks do not have a 20 horse field like the Derby. So I guess I missed the point of your comment?
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When they have contenders people play them, that's just good handicapping.
If the past numbers run true to form (possible), then AP, Dortmund, Carpe Diem and possibly Materiality will be single digit at post time. If Jim C is correct and Materiality makes a great track appearance he may sneak into less than double digit odds.
If the previous numbers are 10-1-2-2 then 50% of their horses
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Fairmount,
I'm sorry I don't have time to do the Graded analysis like you suggested. I did a quick 4 year olds and up for Pletcher, all sprints, routes, turf, etc., for the following tracks since 2009.
GP 419 starts/120 wins 29%
KEE 87 starts/24 wins 28%
AQU 343 starts/88 wins 26%
SAR 182 starts/42 wins 23%
BEL 270 starts/52 wins 19%
CD 97 starts/7 wins 7%
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Mike,
Wouldn't argue that point due to the talent of these 4 horses.
The assigned jockeys on the mentioned horses with Materiality unknown at this time are 11-1-0-0-1 with Victor winning on Chrome last year.
Jockeys that Pletcher has used in past Derby's that may or may not be assigned a mount in this Derby and thus available:
(I didn't look at current Derby rider assignment
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Not to lengthen the string, but Baffert since 2009 is 9-0-3-0-1, with 4 starters in single digits, 1 horse at 10.60/1, and 5 double digit starters.
Todd and Bob are 30-1-3-2-1. Again, gotta respect these two top trainers, but the numbers say they aren't that scary to play against in the Derby.
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Not a Pletcher guy here, but nothing jumped out from the overall, except CD.
Since 2009 Pletcher with 3 year olds Derby 21-1-0-2.
The story though is this: 7 starts have been single digit and hit the board 3 times which is not bad. 7-1-0-2-0
11 starters were double digit and he was 11-0-0-0-0 to hit the board,
3 of the starters were not only double digit but went off at 50/1+ and was 0-3
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Quick stats here. Does not take into account TOPS or new TOP, just overall percentages.
'15 GP total starts 151/34 wins 19%, 3 yo starts 102/23 wins 22%
'14 GP 241 starts/73 wins 30%, 3 yo 141 starts/45 wins 32%
'13 GP 236 starts/66 wins 28%, 3 yo 118 starts/30 wins 25%
'15 AQU 68 starts/13 wins 19%, 3 yo 43 starts/10 wins 23%
'14 AQU 144 starts/27 wins 19%, 3 yo
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J
I'll consider these 4, however, I always wait till I hear some in-depth analysis from Johnny Weir.
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Richiebee,
I didn't pay much attention to the condition move discussion on the board. We'll just say I tend to sit down at machines that look to be setting on a new top.
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My son calls me the "slots whisperer." If people understood the progression pays it would save them lots of dough.
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If you read the 6 comments from readers, they are all beside themselves.
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That's exactly what I said on Mar 20 during the "not good" topic.
When all else fails, the IRS then becomes the real problem.
Asmussen may be protected, or he may be made an example of.
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Seen the series on ESPN, it was very good. Schnellenberger did a great job with the Canes. At the time, especially the NU fans, did not know exactly how talented the Canes were. Their wideouts were awesome and RB Alonzo Highsmith tore NU a new one. Very sophisticated passing attack. Its a shame Schnellenger had such a battle with the bottle cause he really hurt his image at OU and then I thi
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Did your son play in the Big Ten conference when Tressel was there? My son did.
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What about something like:
Ididntnamemyhorse
or
Icantnamethishorse
Both names are under the maximum of 18 letters.
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I don't want to get too far off point since we are both NU fans.
I loved Aksarben, a shame it closed. Was really one of the nicest tracks around. Man they used to put 30K in the place on bigger days. Met and became friends with Mike Smith when he was an apprentice. That was the first time I really hammered a horse, about $300.00 at the time across the board on a horse that Mike rode. Br
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I likely have the most complete, real life perspective on this subject as anyone who is likely post.
To be clear, I'm 61 years old and live in Nebraska. Prior to 1962 when Bob Devaney became the head football coach, the Husker program sucked..(Kinda like it does now). When Devaney had his first press conference and the press asked him how many games he wanted to win, he said, "I don&
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Remember on 5/19 when I said one of us would be right and the other one would be full of #%^&? Since I was right, guess we know who was full of #$%^.
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Mr. C.,
Take a few minutes and go to the Belmont Archives and see if any horse that has not run at least a TG "4" in their 3 year old season has won the Belmont. One of the rules I have on the Belmont is not to play any non TG "4" horse to WIN the Belmont, but if they have a slight forward moving pattern to a recent TG "5" and especially if they got that # on an off
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Jim,
Jimbo66, mjellish, myself and others felt Chrome emptied out pretty hard in the Preakness. I knew that Chrome had needed 3 more strides to finish the the final 1/8th in the Preakness vs. the Derby, so that's always guaranteed to show the horse has been hard used, especially in the short spacing races.
Chrome was positioned fine early but definitely was stuck in a pocket with no place
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No question, in this particular race, less proved to be more.
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