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Thoro-Graph
The facts are that the runner with the best three year top has won twice in the last 10 years (Smarty Jones and Big Brown) which is the same as the one ranked 18th (Giacomo and Mine That Bird) or 11th (Animal Kingdom and Barbaro). The rest had a three year top ranked 10th, 4th, 5th and 6th. The #1 rank horse has also run 2rd twice, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 11th twice and 16th (the infamous Sinister Ministe
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analizethis
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Pending changes for post position here's an estimate of "fair value":
Union Rags 6 - 1
Bodemeister 7 - 1
Gemologist 7 - 1
Creative Cause 9 - 1
Daddy Nose Best 11 - 1
Went the Day Well 11 - 1
Hansen 13 - 1
Dullahan 16 - 1
Prospective 16 - 1
Sabercat 18 - 1
El Padrino 18 - 1
Done Talking 25 - 1
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analizethis
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The issue isn't his pattern or his work. Both are excellent. The question is given what promises to be a wide trip and could be a blocked trip how much faster than everybody else will he have to run? A 3w3w trip (might be the best you can hope for) means he'll have to be 4 lengths better than a runner on the rail. Also, given the long striding style I question his agility to avoid horse
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analizethis
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I don't think I've heard this one considered. Reveron has the following going for him: he developed some foundation in getting to a competitive number as a two year old, quickly moved forward a point first start in 2012, reacted slightly then improved another 2 points in the FLA Derby, he has enough tactical speed to get position but has never been in the lead at the first call in his l
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analizethis
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In reviewing the sheet in Dullahan I noted he Thoro-Pattern was listed as Pr - T - T but from the Futurity to the Juvenille last year he went from a 6 to a 9, so shouldn't his pattern be O - T - T.
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analizethis
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Shows a good pattern, also shown nice evidence of having tactical speed to get position and has run in a 1 1/8 mile race followed by a 1 1/16 mile race then another 1 1/8 mile race improving his performance in each.
His three year old top puts him about average for this group but considering six weeks rest I feel like there is a high probability he will move forward. A good trip and speed impr
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analizethis
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From the write up of the Filly and Mare Turf;
“Motion usually instructs his riders to save ground, and she’s (Aruna) a major player here.”
That may be true but the jockeys on the runners he sent out in the BC races either didn’t get the message or didn’t listen.
Here’s is recap of the trips his runners had:
Aruna, F & M Turf, Leparoux, 4w/4w, Paired her number
Shared Account, F
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analizethis
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I purchased the pre entries for $50 and now when I am trying to download the seminar it seems to be charging me the $25.
This seems inconsistent with the directions in your post.
How should I proceed?
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analizethis
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So a "must use" runs second, a "can use" runs third, the play against 9/5 favorite runs out, the tri pays $5,716.90 for a buck and what you want your money back on the free write-up?
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analizethis
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Any interest in Force Freeze in the Vosburg? A big new top first NA/lasix, has been given some rest and working lights out.
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analizethis
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All the Kentucky trainers were off form at SAR. On a combined basis before today's races McPeek, Maker, Margolis, Romans and Lopresti were a combined 8 for 100 at the meet. Of course, Charlie and Ken won races today to show some improvement but I'm sure that they can't wait to go home.
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analizethis
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5 of 6 scheduled for the turf, any guess on the conditions or do we need to wait until tomorrow? 67 entries doubt more than 50 will go. Average 3 stratches a race.
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analizethis
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Feeding off that theme I have two questions. On the sheet for Soldat it noted the following percentages off his t - o - x pattern:
Size Top Pair Off X Total
159 5% 23% 30% 42% 100% which, for that size is
8 37 47 67 160 (rounding)
Does anyone know the ROI when betting this pattern? Given that the public focuses on th
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analizethis
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Today was one of the chalky sequences of the season but generally you are right on the money. For the full season there have been an average of 64 winners a day with an average handle of $69,104. Extrapolating from those averages to a $4,000,000 handle pool gives you just over 3,700 winners of just under a $900 payoff.
My approach will be to find a single of two and go five or six deep in the
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analizethis
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Since 2003 the average winning TG number is -1 with the slowest (1 1/2) being Funny Cide and the fastest being Big Brown (-4 3/4). 2003 was the only derby that the winner didn't get the best number but don't overlook what may be the most important factor in winning that race, which is the trip. Funny Cide, Street Sense, Mine That Bird and Super Saver were all won while being either 1W/1
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Speaking of gallop outs, the winner looked spent and walked back to the winner circle.
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analizethis
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Agree in general. One exception in this pool is Silver Medallion, if he shows any affinity on dirt in the SA Derby, he is a bargin at the pool close price of 41 -1.
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analizethis
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I have read the Black Swan bur not this one. Anyone think that we should be reading them both?
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analizethis
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What are your plans for sheets for the 2011 Carnival season in Dubai?
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analizethis
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The main take away from the Beyer writings that were posted at the beginning of this thread is that he hates the syn surfaces.
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analizethis
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Thanks for the feedback. It's concerning that they couldn't even have a consistent response to a problem they may have anticipated.
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analizethis
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Since I was traveling down to CD for the BC I called a week before the races and asked if I could access my TS account at the track using my card and the machines which I regularly do and they respond "yes no problem" so I leave the funds in the TS account.
On Friday when I try to use my card in the machine I continue to get the message that they don't know who I am. I phone and
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analizethis
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So just to clarify, by "taking off another 1/2 point" you would make Blame's number -3 (-2 1/2 - 1/2)?
Of course you'd do the same to all the other runners.
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analizethis
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sekrah Wrote:
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> 12 to 15-1 on Malibu Prayer is the value in this
> one I think.
This is one (Quality Road is the other) of the Pletcher runners coming in off a long layoff (last race August 29), the other interesting opportunity in this race is Milwaukee Appeal with a forward moving pattern.
In reviewing he entries I was a little
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analizethis
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Does anybody know if Andre Fabre is attending the races? That has been a big clue in the turf in other years, maybe the same goes for the F & M Turf.
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analizethis
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Thia is what Coolmore has been doing for years. The only success in the Classic has been Giant's Causeway but considering his stud value (200+ mares covered a year at $100,000 a pop) it just proves out the "nothing to lose but a whole lot to gain" theory.
As was just stated from a betting standpoint it is great as it inflates the odds on everyone else. Unless it rains he's a
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