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Thoro-Graph
Favorites. Over the last ten years (decade of the 2000's) favorites have won 4 Kentucky Derby's (40%) (Fu Peg, Smarty Jones, Street Sense and Big Brown). Since the generally accepted benchmark for winning favorites is 33% and this race contains the largest field we see I find this over achievement by the betting favorites to be even more remarkable.
Now, some bad favorites have lost
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Big Brown off a -3 1/2 was 2.4 - 1 out of post 20.Swetnorthernsaint off a -1.5 was a 5.5 - 1 fav. Belamy Road off a -5 was 2.6 - 1. Smarty Jones had run a -3.75 and was a 4.1 fav.
With 20 horse fields and large pools it isn't reasonable to expect that short a price.
Bob
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So do we have a consensus of opinion on this board as to why Ice Box didn't change leads on Saturday? Is it inexperience, a sign of injury or will he just never get it?
That's the key question going into May 1 and needs to be the key thing we watch for as he works out in the weeks to come.
Bob
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Makes sense. In a chapter 11 proceeding the trustee can call the shots and maybe the no go at Gulfstream can buy some time to finalize the details before the next race.
Bob
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Interesting that Rule and maybe D'Funnybone are going to go to the Fla Derby with Eskendereya to the Wood (tells me he is not yet fully recovered from the big number in the FOY). The rest of the field will not get the same value with the big favorite out but the closers should benefit from an honest pace. IMO this will set up for Ice Box and Soaring Empire who are each training well, have ni
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Just another comment on pedigree. I am also concerned about Curvee's offspring's ability to compete at 1 1/4 miles but I keep thinking of 2009 and Musket Man who was very useful in the entire TC when I kept doubting him because he had Yonaguska on top.
I think you need to examine the package and NP has shown the toughness to be right there in every one of his races and although LAL w
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I'm sure that when you do the numbers we will see that Gio Ponti and Z had the best trips. They both hugged the rail around both turns and with Zenyatta's weight advantage some of the others (Twice Over most likely) will probably get a better number then her.
You said it in an earlier post, Jerry, credit goes to Mike Smith for this one. After all his comments about not being to the b
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Any opinions on Einstein who was behind Rip when he completely stopped. Could he have gotten up for second or third. He took up and ended up behind and following the filly.
No chance to get anywhere from there. I figure he lost six lengths.
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Good point. I guess the dirt to Syn angle was 0 for 6 today running its two year string to 34 (guess). I think there were 28 last year.
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It looked to me like the main track played pretty fair. With maybe a little basis toward the inside. It looks like its tough to close on the turf.
I was over invested in the Godolphin group (Sara Louise, Music Note and Cocoa Beach) and it cost me plenty. It doesn't like they are firing. Only two thirds (one was fav and the other was second choice) on the day. They certainly didn't o
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I just reviewed the pp and found the following entries from Europe running without lasix noted:
From Coolmore: Lillie Langtry, Viscount Nelson, Alfred Nobel, Beethoven, Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle.
Others: La Nez, Fleeting Spirit (last year ran with lasix).
Also of note is that both Goldikova and Conduit are first time Lasix after racing last year without.
I seem to recall tha
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The original M/L (at pre entry time) was 10 - 1 but after the final entries and post positions drawn a final M/L of 9 - 2 was published.
I think given the strength of the top two we may get a little better than that but I also think that the exotic pools will provide value to beat one or both of the top two.
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Has anybody seen or heard any insight as to how Sara Louise is getting over the syn surface?
Back to back -2s with a 10 - 1 morning line sure looks tempting. With a defending champ and a filly who has never been beaten on a syn surface you can be sure she will probably be all of that. She looks more appealing than her stable mate at 5 -1 who has run zeros and also never been over a syn surface.
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Kodiak Kowboy's trainer never wanted in this spot always wanted to wait for the Cigar Mile.
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No, I'm not in, but I am playing in the Grade 3 for less money at Canterbury so can I get the special numbers too?
They told me they lost four players to the on site tournament.
I'll keep you posted. Let's make it a TG sweep.
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An accurate and often quoted fact is that last year on the Pro Ride no winners had their final prep on dirt.
However, be careful using that fact in your handicapping as (in addition to being a very limited sample) runners with a final dirt prep represented 28% of the total starters on the main track and 28% of the runners who finished in the supers. Of course since they had no winners they mad
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Jerry,
I'm sure I won't be quoting you verbatim but I'm certain you have opined on this site many times that California has the cleanest (medication wise) racing in North America.
I wonder if you could expand on that by answering the following question.
Is California cleaner because they have more stringent limits on legal drugs, more sophisticated drug testing or
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Does anyone have any knowledge regarding what has happened to this overachieving son of Yonagusta?
With 8 out of 8 finishes in the money I was hoping to get some at Breeders' Cup action with him.
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An Arc winner has never won the BC Turf. Great horses such Montjeu and his son Hurricane Run have failed.
14 European based horses have won the turf six of whom prepped at the Arc.
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Will you have figures for the Arc de Triomphe?
If so, when?
Bob
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You make a good point. I've always assumed that a discrepancy between good or bad record new tops wise versus win and in the money percentages was a function of a trainers ability to position his stock in a right spot.
I think we see this discrepancy particularly in the "last ninety day" line.
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Is everyone as brothered as me by Calvin's record at this Saratoga meet (1/31 at last counting) on a 2/5 M/L filly?
Does anyone have any insight as to why his record could be so bad? Does he just have no sense as to how the track plays or is just riding bad horses?
Bob
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In the TG analysis, what does the designation BB before the race number mean?
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Gentleman Chester is the key.
His second place finish to Just As Well was flattered last week by Just as Well's strong second place finish to Gio Ponti. That strong a comeback by JAW makes me believe that the number might be a little light as that probably represented a slight regression for Gio Ponti and forward move by JAW. Gentleman Chester gets a positive rider change to Leparoux who
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I looked at the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge and I saw nothing about play-in opportunities.
Any insight there?
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I have been a satisfied customer for a while but there is something that has nagged at me.
Do you use different data bases for the trainer profile information on the left vs. the right hand side because even the number of events don't seem to fit.
Any insight?
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