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Thoro-Graph
On a related note, on Saturday we had three grade ones on the turf in Canada and Euro imports won each of them when on the numbers there was no reason to believe that they would be that dominating. I presume that they all cycled back to new tops; two of the winners were first lasix and one with none.
Jerry, it would be wonderful if we had study, in conjunction with the BC edition, of the history
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ROTW - 13 years ago
Jerry/Alan
What is the race of the week? One of the Candian races?
Thanks.
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Court Vision. Will he be fresh enough off race at Woodbine?
Another Euro 1st lasix to do in the reigning Queen?
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I presume this one (Fly Down) regressed off the big number he got in the Travers and may be ready to move forward in the Classic.
Zito sure has a stableful of quality 3 year olds and he seems to be able to plug them in as needed.
The value in the Classic may be with Fly Down and Quality Road a horse whose bandwagon everyone seems to be jumping off.
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Check the Label;. Carries high weight of 120 pounds (from 2 to 4 to all). Comes off three straight wins (not sure what he has beaten) (all 5s) Closer style seems inconsistent with the current basis of the track. Another gate to wire long shot today in the only turf race.
Gitchee Goomie;. Closing style like the inside horse.8s and 9s seems too slow for this group. Only 1 career win and 3 secon
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Given the fact that its surface is more similar to dirt than the SA surface, if they run the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood will the form in the BC prep races transfer more consistently to Churchill Downs than from Santa Anita?
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Opinions on First Dude adding blinkers (Romans is 24% with a positive ROI adding blinkers)?
It seems that, even if they get him to lay off the pace some, this one-paced long striding colt will need to set up in at least the 3 path so that he doesn't get stopped in the lane. All that will make it tough even if he does cycle back to a negative number.
Also, the conventional wisdom is tha
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Let's not underestimate Gio Ponti in this spot. His figures may be off from 2009 but he continues to exhibit a devastating closing kick. His closing fractions in both the Manhattan and the ManOWar were each faster than 2009. He will be tough to beat.
With him I think that Summit Surge and Just as Well are set to run big. Underneath I need to use Debussy (who was helped by the Marsh Side s
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That will change the pace scenario and help the other Drysdale runner (Marlang with a rail trip on the inside) and Al Khali.
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Take a look at Bearpath. Off a 50 day layoff he paired his 4 in a race where he had a tough trip running the last 1/8 in sub 11 seconds when got room and has a decent opportunity to move forward as a 4 year old. He has 2 wins in 4 attempts at the distance and, with Borel, should save ground and close into a pretty quick pace. At 10-1 in the m/l he is a key in the race.Al Kahli and the two Drysdal
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Nick Zito sent out three 3 year olds who finished in the money in the TC series but maybe his best three year old on Travers Day or for the BC Classic might be Miner's Reserve based on his 1 1/16 mile performance last Monday at Belmont Park.
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Such looks like No Such Word, off a six week layoff, should be primed to take advantage of Tidal Pool coming back from the Oaks. We should also get a square price with the money on the fav.
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With Ice Box out of the Derby I think the one that is really vulnerable is Paddy O'Padro. I believe that he will be a very good turf horse and was moved up by the slop, so fast dirt may not be his cup of tea and clearly he finished slowly in the derby. Weather his jockey stopped riding or he was, per KD, looking for a place to lie down, he was not coming home very quickly. This comes after h
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I was actually thinking a similar thing only expanded. I don't know how much of an impact that strong wind had (I wasn't there but I'd love to hear from those who were) but that closing half mile fraction was so slow that the track had to be very tiring and I think every horse that didn't just shut it down is a bet against in two weeks.
I believe that I read a Baffert quote
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I thought that SC could rate but after the draw decided that I could only use underneath on exotic tickets. My exact words were that if he tried to run Big Brown's race he didn't lay over this field like Big Brown did.
On Saturday I heard Sadler interviewed and in response to a question about jockey instructions he gave what I thought was a very telling answer. He said that he truste
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The place to bet Dublin is the Travers.
He has not won a race since the Saratoga season. By far his worse numbers have come at Churchill and he has not trained well here particularly getting out on the turns. IMO he just doesn't like it at CD.
Any money on him only improves the odds on the others as he is a complete toss.
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I've heard somewhere that if it rains Line of David will scratch. Anybody hear that too?
When you say crazy fast I presume you mean like 2000,2001 and 2005 when they went less :46 to the half and less then 1:10 to the six furlong mark. A pace that fast would surprise you, correct?
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She comes in tied for the second best three year top in the field (before getting weight) with the distance challenged Noble's Promise. Her pattern is x-x-t. There were real (I guess) excuses for those x races but I really wonder if she has enough experience in this spot. Over the last three years three fillies have run in the nine Triple Crown races and finished first, second and first so I
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Here's a guess at the general odds. Assuming that Interactif drops out and Jackson Bend gets in.
Eskendereya Favorite 5 -2
Sidney's Candy and Looking At Lucky next at about 5 -1
Endorsement next +-12 -1
Paddy O'Prado, Ice Box and American Lion next +-15 -1
Super Saver, Mission Impazible, Line Of David, R
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Interestingly now we have another likely KD winner (Eskendereya) who also started his career on turf. I know there are more opportunities for two year olds on turf than there used to be but is there something else going on here pedigree wise to which we need to pay attention?
Maybe the only breeding for classic distances takes place with "turf" sires and/or broodmare sires.
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Thanks,
5th/15th, 3rd, 8th, 7th (fav), 14th, 9th, 9th and 10th.
The wise guys don't have a very good record.
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Anybody recall some "wise guy" horses from previous Derbies?
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Tough question to answer but I took a shot at computing an average for each of the last eight years of each field's top three year old number prior to their respective Derby.
From best to worst with averages in (): (1) 2006 (4/5), (2) 2004 (1 2/5), (3) 2005 (1 5/8), (4) 2008 (1 8/9), (5) 2009 and 2010 tie (2), (7) 2007 (2 2/3) and (8) 2003 (2 5/7).
For 2010 I used t
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That's correct and thank you. I was confused by that Derby because it was clearly a closer race (first, third and fourth were 17,14 and 20 at the six furlong mark) but your comments offer some explanation as to why Hard Spun was able to hang on all the way for second.
This year, I believe that we will see a half in sub :46 and a six furlong time of less than 1:10 which will set up for clo
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Regardless of figs,I'm against any horse that had a tough, gut wrencher in his start prior to the derby, extra spacing or not.
Including, I presume, Ice Box?
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True but also true that all "dirt" surfaces are not the same. The Churchill dirt is different than the Belmont dirt which is different than the Gulfstream dirt. These differences relate to the ecosystems in which these surfaces exist and the "dirt" material used in the construction of these surfaces.
As horse players we need to continue to educate and seek education on the
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