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Thoro-Graph
Agree on Monmouth and I think that is what they are trying to do. Delayed by 1-2 years after Sandy. Local residents have fought against lights but you are right on track with how it should be done.
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MonmouthGuy
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Couldn't have been much more than 5,000 people on Stars & Stripes Day at Belmont with Perfect weather, 6 graded stakes, 2 G1s, the Suburban, a Food Truck Festival, a baseball Cap giveaway, petting zoo, pony rides and a post card concert by a Grammy winning Christian Rock Band.
Only things missing were a monkey riding a bicycle and Trump.
Need to attract betting customers first, t
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MonmouthGuy
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What is place $$ in Travers with increased purse?
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MonmouthGuy
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Point well taken. I had been thinking about when Second of June-Read the Footnotes hooked up in 2004 Fountain of Youth which knocked both horses out. Read the Footnotes has some potential similarities to Upstart. NY bred Violette horse, negative number as 2YO in NY, got back to his top right away at GP in the FOY in an epic stretch duel. Was my Derby pick. Dont think he ever ran a step again.
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MonmouthGuy
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Honor Code looked totally washed out in post parade too. Didn't think he'd run a jump. That was a tough beat. Horse ran his eyeballs out though. Put away the entire field by top of stretch except the winner, who may be a special horse. No regrets.
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MonmouthGuy
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Have only looked at Whitney so far.
Liam's Map drew well. He will be my Key. No speed inside him, if he breaks well should get great trip. Love his pattern, ran top off long layoff and comes in on 50 days rest, and gets 7 lbs .. Value should be there. Expecting another close but no cigar for Tonalist (top fig not top $). Betting against Honor Code to be as effective at two turns. Will al
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MonmouthGuy
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Thanks Frank, I may just do that! Andy Beyer had Upstart in the Derby, too. Maybe he can join me. That was the first fig I have seen from the race-- based on trip I am guessing slightly faster than the 7s Rachel had run at this time in her 2YO year.
Sorry if you found my comment ridiculous, but until I see Upstart get back to his top at 9F, I will be skeptical.
The value certainly will be
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MonmouthGuy
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Maybe Lawyer Ron didn't run three huge consecutive negative numbers as a 4YO at 9 and 10F after backing up and running Xs at his two 10F tries as a 3YO, but that is my recollection.
As for Upstart, the next time I lose money on him at 9F or more will be when someone else cashes in the parimutal pool on my dime.
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MonmouthGuy
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Ultra impressive.
Keen Ice will give Texas Red-Frosted all they can handle in Travers if AP chooses elsewhere.
Upstart should target BC dirt mile and Cigar Mile. Will not win at 9F and beyond against graded stakes horses this year. Maybe next year? Lawyer Ron comes to mind as a horse that was able to run his top figures as a 4YO at 9F+ after moving to TAP barn while appearing distance limit
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MonmouthGuy
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Staring at the sheets all week, I don't think its Kool-Aid.
Upstart is 35% to win if he gets back to a top that he has already paired, the works say he's ready and he's likely to be 10-1+.
On August 13, 1919 we had Upset.
On August 2, 2015 will we have Upstart?
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MonmouthGuy
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My biggest question on Upstart is whether he has can use the PP draw to get a ground saving trip and then angle out in stretch, or is he a horse that needs to race wide.
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MonmouthGuy
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I think AP is going to be 1-9 and Upstart 10-1+.
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MonmouthGuy
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This means WAR!
Look at how a miler like Coal Play almost pulled it off against Big Brown. Personally, I am not sure Upstart is a classic distance horse, but you don't need to be at Monmouth on Haskell day.
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MonmouthGuy
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Upstart and Bravo on rail at Monmouth at this distance makes this a very interesting race all of a sudden.
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MonmouthGuy
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Bolo vanned off. Took bad step and jock pulled him up in stretch,
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MonmouthGuy
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"7. A horse that has not been nominated to the Breeders’ Cup program will not be eligible to receive payment of starting fees (the total of pre-entry and entry fees) for the Championship race or the travel allowance to the Championships until nominated. The owner of a non-nominated horse may receive payment of starting fees (the total of pre-entry and entry fees) and travel allowance if the
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MonmouthGuy
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Met figure for Tonalist impressive. If he didn't react to his Westchester #, he should be scary the rest of year. Or do we need to see this form away from Belmont?
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MonmouthGuy
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Jay Privman's description of Keen Ice trip. Reads more like a Kentucky Derby trip than a trip in an 8 horse Belmont, but as many on the board smarter than me have suggested, maybe his lack of atheticism and turn of foot makes Keen Ice a horse that will get more bad trips than most.
KEEN ICE, who finished third, broke last, advanced enough to wind up four paths wide entering the first turn
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MonmouthGuy
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In addition, can I assume your drive-by would be initiated from a White Mercedes?
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MonmouthGuy
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He was up close early to the Mubta (1 length back at 8f) but then had dropped 3 1/2 lengths behind him at 10F. Keen Ice lost 5 lengths to Frosted in the same 2F.
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MonmouthGuy
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Sorry, post corrected. It was the Mine that Bird Derby. Sixth furlong he made huge move on backstretch and used up the horse.
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MonmouthGuy
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Sometimes he tends to "rush a horse" on the backstretch, making an early move to nowhere...see Hold Me Back in the Mine that Bird Derby. Yesterday's ride was inexplicable. Close early which forced him to be wide, then taken back on the backstretch but still in the 4 wide path so when he reached the far turn he was wide again, and then finishing with a ton of horse in a 12F race.
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MonmouthGuy
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Keen Ice couldn't have gotten a worse ride. 3W4W(?) in an 8 horse field and agree that he hit wire with plenty in tank. Curious to see his Trakus. Probably moved forward to a 0 that should have put him in exacta. Slumber-AP double generous at $71.20.
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MonmouthGuy
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Only one Sarava story. The late Bill Handleman, Asbury Park Press columnist, Monmouth railbird, 1995 winner of $100,000 Penn National World Series of Handicapping, wrote a brilliant column the morning of the 2002 Belmont in which he gave Sarava as his pick...no redboarding, its memorialized forever in Microfiche, and I cashed the exacta that day b/c of Bill.
Bill was a friend and a great man w
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MonmouthGuy
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My main play will be straight exacta AP-KI based on reasons discussed in below thread. I cannot play against AP based on the weaknesses of the two main contenders Frosted (agree w Miff) and Materiality (agree w current thread he will be done by 9F).
KI hasn't gone backwards, still has room for development off his 2YO top, looks the part in training, and is most likely horse in my opinio
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MonmouthGuy
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