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Thoro-Graph
I should have phrased it as took money from those on this forum judging by the messages I read.
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MonmouthGuy
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Will target Woody Stephens.
Pletcher reporting that El Padrino will be on shelf until at least the fall. No injury, just a vacation.
Two horses that were finished before entering the gate at Churchill and took a lot of money.
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MonmouthGuy
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Zero Rate Policy just took a bad step. He is fine. Pretty amazing.
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MonmouthGuy
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No injuries (serious) to jocks or horses. Pretty incredible. Only 3 horses finished.
by
MonmouthGuy
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Find it hard to believe that Bode regressed based on the race dynamics. He was the only horse that did any running for much of the race. If the race ends at the 9F that he ran in the Arkansas what do you think his final # is? That top was on an easy unpressed lead, this number was earned every step of the way. I think he will bounce off THIS effort which considering race dynamics, I will treat
by
MonmouthGuy
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Rewatch his rides on Brilliant Speed and tell me where you would have saved ground as opposed to getting stopped.
by
MonmouthGuy
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Agreed. He looked like Shackleford before the Preakness last year.
by
MonmouthGuy
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Drape already ran his "teaser" on O' Neill prior to the 2010 Breeders Cup (paragraphs 3-6)---link attached. Hard to believe there will not be more robust follow up prior to the Preakness.
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MonmouthGuy
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I agree with all of this, and think that if UR had gotten Gemologist's (who I unfortunately pounded at the tote) trip, he would have been right there in the stretch.
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MonmouthGuy
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Both he and Graham Motion did a great job getting their horses ready for the Derby. Both relished the distance. WTDW was fying at the end, too.
by
MonmouthGuy
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If you think a Derby win will create new fans for the support, I have to disagree. The current winner was made to order for the NY Times narrative on the downfall of horse racing. Bode hanging on would have been a nice temporary boost.
Coming soon: Part III by Joe Drape--Druggie O' Needle; Suspensions, Breakdowns and Slaughter
Part IV: by Jacob Schiller; Derby Champ Discarded at Los
by
MonmouthGuy
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P-Dub Wrote:
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> My keys are Take Charge Indy and Gemologist
Good luck.
by
MonmouthGuy
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Lawyer Ron also rank at Churchill going into 2006 Derby
by
MonmouthGuy
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I like El Padrino's sheet but I am always wary of "trainerspeak" leading into the KD.
It's uncanny how they all get exactly what they want out of the final pre-Derby work. Hard to put a shine on 4F in 53 and change for a horse who is supposed to relish the slop.
by
MonmouthGuy
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Agree with these thoughts, and since El Padrino will probably be 25/30-1 with a nice looking sheet, I think he might be the serious value in the race. He would be my key if I was betting right now.
by
MonmouthGuy
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Michael D. Wrote:
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>
> what Borel does here is crucial, because I don't
> think Dominguez is going head-to-head with Smith.
Michael. Do you think his horse gives him any other choice? I don't know if there is any other way to ride Hansen. The Gotham trip seems like an "accident."
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MonmouthGuy
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I got this one almost completely wrong. Thought with Hansen hung wide on first turn that he was going to get used up. Finnegan's Wake will be interesting to watch going forward. I imagine Motion will point him to the Blue Grass.
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MonmouthGuy
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Thanks. I also think the Gotham is interesting. Big field and vulnerable odds on favorite in Hansen. Breen's horse likes an off track and gets the benefit of the draw and should make Hansen work early. Kieran's horse (Side Car) and Tiger Walk both look interesting as does Roman's turf horse (Finnegan's Wake), although that one hated the mud in his one off-grass effort. Tric
by
MonmouthGuy
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I didn't touch the race, but Union Rags going off as 6/5 second choice w/o Alogorithims in race was crazy. DD as 4/5 favorite---insane.
by
MonmouthGuy
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Algorithims scratch makes this race hard to bet. Was hoping to get Discreet Dancer at 5/2 or better. Don't think he is value as an 8/5 second choice.
by
MonmouthGuy
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The horse was coming of a 2 year layoff and was probably going to be ignored at the windows. The trainer knew he was going to run and wanted to bet him at or near his ML odds of 12-1. The bug chirping on the backside threatened his odds if people started listening.
by
MonmouthGuy
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I loaded up offshore at 3.5 and am waiting for the 2.5 looking for the big one.
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MonmouthGuy
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Terrible DQ. Stewards are asleep at Gulfstream 99% of the time. Nothing to differentiate Paco's riding from 5 other races on the same card w/o inquiries.
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MonmouthGuy
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Crap. I just bought the race and posted my thoughts! Will repost here.
The two horses that will take the most money are very vulnerable. Mott's Group 1 Juddmonte Euro-shipper is one of the slowest horses in the race and he may go off odds on, and Flat Out is trying turf for the first time as are several others.
I am going to key Pletcher's imporving 4YO Silver Medallion at 4-1 ML
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MonmouthGuy
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This is about as interesting a field as you will see. The two horses that will take the most money are very vulnerable. Mott's Group 1 Juddmonte Euro-shipper is one of the slowest horses in the race and he may go off odds on, and Flat Out is trying turf for the first time as are several others.
I am going to key Pletcher's imporving 4YO Silver Medallion at 4-1 ML. He has a great for
by
MonmouthGuy
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