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Thoro-Graph
Prat has been on fire too. Irad didn’t have the day that I anticipated based on his mounts. With fewer tracks running it was interesting to focus on the jockey colonies. Irad had some amazing rides at Gulfstream this meet. I was also impressed with Gaffalione. They win when they’re supposed to and many times when they shouldn’t.
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billk5300s
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Irad is having or going to have one of those days. Based on his mounts a 5 or 6 win day is possible. He’s a great talent, no doubt about it!
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billk5300s
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With SA and CD returning to racing, who has any methods to know which barns are ready? I know that TG provides excellent stats on how trainers perform after layoffs but are there any other tricks that folks use? Thought this would be an interesting discussion.
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billk5300s
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You bring up an excellent point. The post indictment state of racing is looking very different. You can’t key on these trainers with magical powers anymore. Personally I believe it’s a good thing. I’ve actually done better with my horizontals post indictment. The payoffs have been much better. Anyone else noticing this or am I off base?
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billk5300s
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I’ve posted some observations about RD before. He routinely does this at WRD and TUP. The difference at the smaller tracks is that you won’t see 58-1. Instead these horses run holes through the wind at even money. I will note that since the indictments went down that these miraculous horses appear to be entered less frequently but they are still out there.
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billk5300s
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How?
All of these horses had comparable numbers:
King Guillermo, Storm the Court, Farmington Road, Well Bayou, Taishan, and Silver Prospector.
There is no way that horse should have been less than even money. IMHO
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billk5300s
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I tossed the 12, By My Standards but had the 5 and 9 in the last race. Baffert kills everything with those highly bet runners. Nadal looked average in that field and wins like a champ.
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billk5300s
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Bored is the master of the rail trip and saving ground. He’s got some stones I’ll give him that. IMHO that track was pretty front biased today so that didn’t help his chances.
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billk5300s
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This is just my observation but OP was really front biased today. Very disappointing in front of the big day tomorrow. Anyone else feel the same way?
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billk5300s
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I really like the mini-ROTW, thanks for sharing!! A couple of my observations on that race:
Grade One has reacted each time after running that big number. Problem is WRD is conducive to horses on or near the front. I’m torn regarding this horse because a repeat will run away from these
Vangilder may need a race but Asmussen is winning with everything which scares me, otherwise I would
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billk5300s
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Horse is 1/2 with 11 minutes to post. 3 horses in the field have better to run back to. I think I know where this is going.
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billk5300s
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Today while watching TVG from living room downs Gabby Gaudet singled No Way Jose On her rainbow6 ticket. Why is this interesting.? This horse looked average in the graph and was 20-1 in the morning line. The race was wide open. So why did she single a horse in a wide open race? Because the trainer told her he was bringing the horse along slowly and liked him today. The horse opened up at 2-
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billk5300s
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That one hurt. To pile on what a brutal ride by Lanerie on Degrom in the last race. Loved his tactical speed but Corey buried him in the back. Not the way I wanted to end the day.
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billk5300s
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OP - 4 years ago
After that run about 10 days ago his barn has slowed down. Yesterday in the 7th at OP he entered Sacred Kiki Bird. The folks on TVG even made comments on the fact that the horse wasn’t bet. Of course they used the claim angle. Looks like the “tell†is if the horse looks slow on paper but he’s 6-5 or less either play or pass the race.
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billk5300s
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Kudos - 4 years ago
Just wanted to send a shout out to the TG analysis team. Great day yesterday, well done!!!
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billk5300s
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Funny you mention him. I tossed him in the last race at OP yesterday and it bit me. His horse had improved gate speed in that race. Did not foresee that. I’m going horse by horse and race by race with him.
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billk5300s
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Has there been any discussion on lowering the daily cap with the limited number of tracks available? Asking for a friend :)
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billk5300s
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Amazing numbers. I really enjoy the races where his horses have similar numbers to others that are 8-1 or better and he’s 3-5 and wins. SMH
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billk5300s
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WRD - 4 years ago
I wonder if it gets boring for RD to win almost every race he has an entry in?
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billk5300s
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Wards turf to swamp play worked out for them. Based on the odds a lot of folds knew it would but I was not one of them
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billk5300s
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Also just won the MSW race 4 at Tampa under a hold the entire race.
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billk5300s
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Couldn’t think of a worst way to start the day. When the half was run at 49 I thought Scatnap was gone. I thought that turf course was favoring speed or close up the past few days, the dirt track definitely played that way. I realize a lot of folks don’t buy into track bias but based on my observations it’s hard not to. I hope thinks get better from here. Good luck to all!
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billk5300s
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Richie your post really hit home with me. I have been on a racing sabbatical, I took a six month break and have really limited my play as of late for all of the reasons that you mentioned. With that said not having the ability to play is going to be tough, in fact so tough that I actually plan to start working on my virtual honey-do list. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and more importantly k
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billk5300s
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Between the super trainers, betting bots, no local racing to speak of, and a two year long handicapping slump I’ve decided to shutter Living Room Downs. TG is the best product out there and I’d recommend it to anyone if asked. Good luck to everyone!!!
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billk5300s
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There were similar issues in 2014. Numbers show that polytrack is safer but for a number of reasons including track biases tracks were prefer to avoid it.
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billk5300s
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Check out the win percentages and ROI for Sarah Nagle. She trained Lovers Key who won the 9th at GP? Does anyone know who she is a disciple of???
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billk5300s
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I can’t say I’m surprised. I personally believe there are other things going on there as well. I’ve seen some interesting rides following some bizarre betting patterns. I know I sound like an idiot but I’ve been playing for over 40 years and never made a comment like this until now. Used to enjoy playing WO but realized it’s best to stay away. Thanks for sharing.
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billk5300s
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Thanks for sharing that podcast Fairmount. Admittedly I have fallen into many of those bad bet traps. I consider myself a decent handicapper but a terrible bettor. With that said I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been tossed from horizontals by horses that I thought had no shot, were 10/1 ML, and won at 8/5. I guess that doesn’t happen to btp. In any case that podcast is a great list
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billk5300s
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