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Thoro-Graph
That character’s death was such a gut punch.
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TempletonPeck
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Imagine this is too late to be of use, but I would think it is related - my understanding is ADW’s aren’t illegal here, but you must have a physical casino in-state to operate one. As far as using Twin Spires while here, I wouldn’t personally discuss my intention to do that on a public forum.
But, this isn’t legal advice, and I’m not your lawyer.
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TempletonPeck
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Almost seems like they’re trying to force you to come to the track or bet at their ADW...
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TempletonPeck
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JR Wrote:
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> WAR OF WILL is harder to gauge. His last number is
> a troubled trip toss and we know where he was when
> he was interfered with. But 2 weeks rest and a
> still as yet unexplained bomb at the Fairgrounds
> has me speculating that this horse could have
> issues. Not my key as the likely second choice.
I
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TempletonPeck
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I'd say "Close, maybe even very close, but not quite."
(And I don't think is 5-6/1 a fair price to find out.)
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TempletonPeck
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Personally, I buy TGs so that I don't have to compare final times.
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TempletonPeck
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Bodexpress gets the 20, everyone who was 13-20 moves in one.
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TempletonPeck
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To me, the argument against is that he has now had about 4 months and 2 tries at matching/improving his 2yo top and has failed to do so.
Maybe interesting, he's presently 14/1 in England, but 30/1 at the Hilton (fine, "Westgate" - yuck).
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TempletonPeck
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FWIW, the shows are taped a couple months before airing.
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TempletonPeck
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The Atomic Testing Museum here in Las Vegas is fantastic, if you're interested.
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TempletonPeck
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I think #7 - Smart Choice merits a little attention at 30/1.
If Pletcher and Lasix are each worth a point, she's well within get-a-lucky-trip range. Further, running lines indicate she has shown some early foot, at least by Argentine standards.
Hey, I'm a sucker for foreign girls.
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TempletonPeck
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Folks love to whip on Tara and Johnny, but the KY Derby is the single greatest wagering opportunity of the year for the horseplayer, and it isn't remotely close.
We should beg them to put more of Tara and Johnny on the air. We should beg them to have more celebrities who pick cute names, one-eyed horses, etc.
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TempletonPeck
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Here in Nevada, ballot question #3 involves the potential deregulation of the energy market.
Ballpark, Sheldon Adelson has spent about $50 million to see one side win, and Warren Buffett's NV Energy has spent about $50 million to see the other side win. This means that in all likelihood the two most expensive races in the nation will be here in little ol' Nevada - this ballot questio
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TempletonPeck
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It almost leads one to think they might be teaching something at journalism schools.
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TempletonPeck
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That is certainly not universally true (says a guy who lives in a state with ADWs and no NYRAbets).
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TempletonPeck
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Not sure why my bet on Masochistic in the 2016 BC Sprint (and I do think I made one, but can't say for sure - my recollection is that I thought he appeared the most likely winner on TG but was a short price, I just can't remember whether I pushed the button or not) has any bearing on anything.
In general, I think you make some good points regarding testing, the lack of information, a
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TempletonPeck
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Yeah, I can't imagine why people would accuse you of advancing conspiracy theories.
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TempletonPeck
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I haven't heard anyone say so, but it must mean no more matchups, too.
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TempletonPeck
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I think you can say the track is fairly souped-up/fast, but from the seat of my pants, I don't see enough evidence to say there's a bias.
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TempletonPeck
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"Going to tweet out an adjusted figure today for Done Deal's win in the Iowa Sprint. He is running today in the Vanderbilt. Chart shows a time of 1:10.67 but video shows a 1:09.02 and seems to be correct. Going to do some video work. Thanks to @NTamm1215 for pointing this one out."
I believe that is what OP refers to.
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TempletonPeck
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To my eye, the race is between the #3, 5, 6, and 7.
If the ML maker has done a good job, I will be betting #7 - Carolina Grace.
#3 - Kadley. I admit to having concerns about the pilot here - 1/41 on turf doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence.
Although #5 - Silent Respect had a pretty fair debut, the pedigree on both sides indicates sprint.
#6 - Heart Rush: trainer has stout
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TempletonPeck
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My read only, but I thought the suggestion was that it was obvious where the performance came from, and the shot was "C'mon lady, you aren't *actually* that naive."
JMHO.
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TempletonPeck
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A trainer has the following statistics:
Lifetime (a couple thousand starts): 17% tops, 29% pair;
Last 90 days (50+ starts): 39% tops, 38% pair.
One can only assume he's learned quite a bit about training horses in the last 4-5 months.
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TempletonPeck
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You could have just written "sigh" and this would have been a much better post.
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rezlegal Wrote:
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> TP-When OTBs started in the 1960s ( you were
> clearly not yet around) everyone said the same
> thing and that was long before ADWs and the
> invention of the internet. While it may take
> awhile for regulators in most states to figure
> this out, a huuuuge new market is about to open. I
> have
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TempletonPeck
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I think if you look at how much Nevada casinos (don't) take on sports wagering, you'll be surprised. This isn't going to be the bonanza that many think.
Neighborhood bookies won't be affected in any way, their model is built on money-lending, which will continue to be needed no matter how legal the betting aspect may become.
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TempletonPeck
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After the race, we're all weak to hindsight bias, and to learn something meaningful, it's important to have/look at a big data set so that you aren't cherry-picking to support your ideas.
For example, if you look at the sheets of either horse you are discussing here, you may be able to say "Ah, sire X/trainer Y clearly has horses move forward first time slop in the Derby!&q
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I absolutely understand what he's saying! I even agree that a post mortem is once in awhile a good thing. In fact, I have posted threads like "P6 post mortem - or, 'Where did I go so wrong?'"
If Paolo wanted to dig into some data and say, "Hey friends, I have noticed that when X trainer has Y type horses on Z type tracks, they tend to ________," well goddamn,
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