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Thoro-Graph
I know it's not about the time of the workouts, but read TAP's description of the choice they made about putting the two fillies in different paths. And his speculation about the inside being deeper, where Budget trained. It could be that she got more out of this work than meets the eye.
But the interesting thing about nearly every filly going to the Oaks is the fact that most hit
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If the concept of 'bounce' has any meaning at all Dreaming of Julia is dead certain to bounce in the Oaks. And if TAP's comment on the Silsita/Unlimited Budget work today is at all accurate, Budget may actually have outworked the other. In any case, both of them had faster works than Julia, relative to all other horses who worked at their respective distances.
The Oaks finish
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All the blather about TAP, drugs and his six Derby potentials seems to be overrunning the other important race today. Does anyone want to venture what kind of number Departing got in Chicago? He raced about 5 wide the entire trip, finished in a good time and won easily.
OK, he didn't beat much, but he beat them big. Actually, this race should give pause to reflect on the La Derby, whic
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Every horse can be evaluated in a number of different ways and IMLD is no different. He ran the fastest prep race of any 3yo, in the GP Derby, and deserves respect for his Holy Bull, but his 2-turn races were both a lot slower than those of a sizeable group of other Derby prospects. He didn't beat much in the HB and a better horse beat him in the FD.
I might get excited about Plesa'
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First of all, I would only be redboarding if I didn't make this statement about 20 times during the 2 days of the contest...to the guys sitting around me who were betting real money. Many of whom were using Thorograph numbers.
As for where the figures come from....Equibase numbers for the contenders adjusted for groundloss. Game on Dude wasn't even close to the top 5 using this app
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Have not posted here for quite some time, but entered my FIRST contest at the BCBC and came away with complete confirmation that I quit posting on Thorograph for the right reason.
For what it is worth, anyone sitting near me at the contest heard me say on the first day that Baffert would not win a race and Game on Dude would not hit the board in his race. I can get you witnesses.
How could
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I know I said I was getting off this board, but when you sent me the notice about the Belmont being the ROTW, I had to come look at the analysis. I think it has serious flaws.
Basically, one has to accept the idea that IAH moved to a big new high in the Preakness. One has to accept TGs West Coast numbers, especially the SA Derby. I don't. I think the Preakness was a new top for IAH,
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Mike
To simplify things, I view the sheets methodology as consisting of two parts. First there are the numbers. The numbers science focuses on speed, the numbers art is in interpreting the relative values of external events: such as but not exclusively what happened in other races on a given day; what happened to change a racing surface during the day etc. The second part of the methodology
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miff Wrote:
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> "I dunno what Bode's sheet is going to look like"
>
>
> MJ,
>
> I'll take a swing. How about 0 2 (X impending)
> Could anything be less represesntative or more
> misleading?
>
> Mike
Doesn't the response to this idea about the pattern depend upon whether o
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> I believe Brisnet uses a computer model (correct
> me if I'm wrong). A computer model has no way of
> putting an accurate speed figure on a single
> two-turn race. You need to look at anything and
> everything to get something like that right,
> especially when they're all going 9f for the first
> time.
>
> It's possible Gem did react to the Wo
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I was not trying to analyze the Wood as a race, guys. I pointed out only that the BRIS numbers, adjusted for ground loss, suggest that Gemologist's Wood was nearly 10 speed points higher than his previous top, according to BRIS. That being the case, he was a bounce candidate, regardless of his overall ability. In other words, Big's call on the horse was very accurate and if my hindsi
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For the most part I had a good day at Churchill yesterday, except for the Derby on which I followed the TG analysis for the most part (threw out TCI on a personal call.) But the TG analysis also missed the Oaks very badly when coupled with JV's bonehead ride.)
So last night I went back and looked at the Derby through a different microscope...adding groundloss estimates to BRIS speed numb
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I think you completely miss the point of this program. There's no bias here. There are good reasons to think Bode can't win this thing. Doesn't mean he won't, but if you bought TG's analysis you would understand the depth of the data that supports the idea that this horse won't win. Since the speed number that is a key to this opinion occured in Arkansas, there
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You want a track report, call Julien. He already figured out you don't want to stay on the rail too long. Check out his first two rides.
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So here's mine, horse by horse.
Daddy Long Legs: he would win here if there were 19 Little Chappys in the race. Unfortunately for the sheiks they already had their shot at that bogus contender.
Optimizer: next year I hear D. Wayne will wear a saddle on his own back if that's what it takes to get into the Derby.
Take Charge Indy: his strongest race was the loss to El Padrino.
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Notice, I did not say anything about a 'dead rail,' but race after race you had to be watching, as did I, some pretty good and highly rated horses going nowhere if they were racing on the inside. And some fast horses who got hung up on the outside, Contested and BYC for example, looked like they could have run all day in the middle of the track, despite losing ground. Broadway's
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There were two reasons I didn't hit the Oaks...which busted three p3s and potentially the Oaks Derby double for me.
Reason One: the fact that Velasquez was one of the few guys at the place who didn't notice that nobody was winning along the inside of the track all day....when he went to the front closest to the rail I announced I was ready to tear up my ticket on him. (and anybody w
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sekrah Wrote:
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> I wouldn't touch Hansen with a 10 foot pole. I'm
> not buying the snake-oil the Doctor is selling.
> He's one of the very few confident tosses I have
> come up with in this Derby
Yeah, I agree and he's the horse most likely to jam the inside horses in the early part of the race, giv
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mjellish Wrote:
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> Curious what some may think. I keep hearing all
> the talk about the hot pace and all the speed in
> this year's Derby. Maybe I'm way off base here,
> but I just don't see it that way. Trin is the
> most likely pacesetter on paper. But I've seen
> him rate and run 47 to the h
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You make decisions about the Derby from the end of the 2yo season on through post position draw...you change your mind frequently as new developments occur and shift your point of view. I don't want to jinx myself, but I made my first decision before the new year and just about everything that's developed just made my conviction stronger.
The horse's style always seemed to fit
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Agreed...Hansen could be considered the controlling speed...but at 10 furlongs???? Not so sure.
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There's a lot of ways to look at the draw...early thoughts:
Bode is in trouble...a ton of speed outside him, dropping over on him if they try to take it slower with him, which I doubt. A ton of speed to force him into using his energy since he is likely to have to be used early. UR and Dullahan clearly have to navigate and circle, but both can save some ground. Gem in a great spot if
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The real story would have been who Julien would choose if he had the choice.
Personally, I think both jockeys are near the top of the national colony and I also think that their riding styles suit the horses they've ended up with.
Gentlemen, start your engines.
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sekrah Wrote:
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> Pretty much confirms what I've always believed..
> It's totally irrelevant noise whether a horse gets
> a "workout" over the track or not prior to the
> Derby, and it should not be a factor in anyone's
> handicapping for a race. The sample size of
> horses shipping straigh
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Interesting observation. I viewed him as a pain in the butt, because you have to decide whether he made a one time jump on dirt to be followed by a regression....or he might have found his surface and he moves forward again. If the connections were not who they are, I'd toss him. But this one is a big BUT. Maybe a lot of other people are looking at him the same way.
Of interest to me a
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Mike
Isn't the important question whether it's kinder to front runners vs closers?
Most likely the advantage goes to the front runners on that track; not so meaningful for a horse that has to circle other horses, regardless of the ground saving in the early part of the race.
But then, there's Calvin who hardly ever leaves the rail if he gets it early.
Al
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HP Wrote:
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> "We've seen that in all levels of races. If it
> rains, the speed stops around two turns."
>
> This is just plain wrong, and it's even wrong if
> you apply it to the Derby. Did you see the race
> in 2004? Lion Heart and Smarty Jones? Come on.
>
>
> It depends how muc
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Topcat Wrote:
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> gteasy Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I remember Shoemaker's ride on
> Ferdinand...trips
> > are not easy to predict.
>
>
> Both Shoe's -- and Charlie's -- personal
> motivations in that Derby were considerable.
What do
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