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Thoro-Graph
There is a consensus that Improbable's breeding is not for the Derby?
A large number of idiots in that consensus then.
City Zip is an extremely versatile sire and the past 20 years have shown that sprinting tendencies on the sire side are often outweighed by stamina influences on the mare's side in Derby winners, going all the way back to Smarty Jones.
City Zip is a half to Gho
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To keep him from leaning in? He bore in 6 paths and pinned Tax down on the rail thru the stretch. Watch the head-on. As is often said, might be jock piloting, might be tiring when the bearing in/out is that bad. I want nothing to do with him in the Derby.
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Taking a somewhat different view of the ROTW.
This is the time of year to pay really close attention to the first figure run this season and how it lines up with overall development. As most of us are aware, jump-up improvements in the 1st or 2nd race of the 4yr old or sometimes even 5yr old season are common, and I'm much more interested in a horse that is doing well right now than one
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Very impressive win, just needs points. And with the high likelihood of slop at the Derby these days, would definitely be one to watch for. When that half went up in 44.2 I didn't think there was any way, then he won by like 15
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Guys like Durkin and Denman had extensive careers and got several opportunities for memorable calls, but my favorite of all time is definitely Luke Krytbosch who died suddenly of a heart attack in his 40s just a few years after assuming the Churchill Downs job. A real shame because he definitely would have had a hall of fame career as well.
It is beyond me as well as to how Larry Collmus has
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I would avoid getting extremely specific with rules for years and number of starts and just say in general that it is important to understand that the max possible effort for a horse changes over time. Every horse is different, though some sires tend to have somewhat predictable patterns.
The key to finding value is understanding when the max possible effort for a horse could be improving and
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On twitter, several horsemen extremely pissed (rightfully so) that meds were administered and then they decide to cancel.
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Im in complete agreement, I have far more bad memories of wagering issues from coupled entries than I do shenanigans from uncoupled ones.
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At the end of the day, the whole Baffert/Repole (don't tell me this was just a Geroux thing, Repole wanted to do the exact same thing, their horse just was not talented enough) discussion comes down to whether or not we need coupled entries.
Personally, I remember SEVERAL different times I was frustrated with coupled entries where one I liked ended up scratched during multi race wagers an
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Becker definitely has the Luke Krytbosch like delivery that I really enjoy, Luke was so frigging good and such a shame he left us so early. Love Wrona's ad-libing and think Peter Berry does a very good job at Mountaineer too and is very deserving of an upgrade.
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Overlooking one of the most important points, dam stats. obviously not of much use when it's the 1st or 2nd foal, but when a mare is 3 of 4 winners with a stakes winner and offspring have several wins at 2yrs old, you better take notice regardless of trainer or sire.
good example of this happened on 5/25 in the 2nd race at BEL, Yes and Yes was out of a mare who had dropped 5 winners out
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Well done! many thanks for the reminder. 7-1!
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If Smith is to be believed and he had already geared down Justify, the gallop out is absolutely meaningless
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Again with the racing fan experts, everyone seems to think he was tired, but after if you saw the video of him basically dressage prance stepping thru the backside as he was led back to his stall right after the race you would see that he clearly was not that tired by the effort at all. Visual facts seem to line up with Smith's story.
Still a lot of things that can go wrong between now a
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Evaluating only the winner is an absolutely terrible way of identifying a track bias. If closers weren't the best horses, they never figured to win a race anyway. You have to look at the entire field and who placed where and what their relative prices/ability were.
Closers did fine in races like the Chick Lang, The Very One, even the horse that won the Dixie was 3rd of 4 for most of the
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Are people really interested in reading thru a board that is cluttered with mundane "I hit a big price" redboards? What regular TG user hasn't had an experience like this on a somewhat regular basis?
This type of behavior should absolutely be discouraged and policed by the members of this community. Regular users already know TG is great. There is absolutely zero value brou
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Have no idea if this tweet is correct, but quite possible that Dan does have access to Rags/Jake. What's confusing is he calls it a "Giacomo like 7" but Giacomo ran a 5 on Rags. If it is a 7, that would make it the slowest one in 25 years tied with California Chrome (wait...what????)
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This is exactly the point PDub, speed dont get much cheaper than he already faced in the Derby, unless you want to enter a stakes quality 6F horse.
A word to the new folks who have been drawn to the board during triple crown, raw time discussion is an EXTREMELY foolish way to handicap, and when you use raw times in your posts to position your question or make a point, it ruins your credibility
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So you want to compare raw times in a derby that finished in 201.change (IHA) with a derby that finished in 204.change (justify)? I mean, clearly the tracks were pretty much the same right?
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More bias talk, LOOOOOOOL.
Race 10 super:
Funny duck 12th at the quarter, 8th at the half
NY Central 6th and 4th
Givemeaminit 9th and 9th
Sporting Chance 8th and 11th
Derby:
8 of the 10 horses in the top 10 at the 1/2 and 3/4 did not finish in the top 10
Race 13 super:
King Zachary 6th at the quarter, 5th at the half
Determinant 9th (last) and 9th
Giant Honor 2nd and 2nd
Las
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HAHAHA thanks for the laugh. So did you ever figure out the mystery of those historic first fractions?
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"I don’t like Scat Daddy either as a classic distance sire but sadly, classic distance breeding has been out of style for a while now in American dirt racing. It’s all about milers. Unfortunately, we saw another miler moved up over a wet sealed track. Doesn’t tell you a thing about distance potential. A sham."
It's been extremely entertaining watching (especially on twitte
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Twinspires was down too guys, dont think it was just NYRA
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Obsessing over historical 1st quarter times as part of handicapping the derby?
"Welcome to the pools"
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I'm going to not draw too many conclusions from Rayya's race, good or bad, for a multitude of reasons.
A) she's a filly
B) this is her 5th race this year
C) her pattern is completely different
D) she's been on dirt all this time
I know people will want to dumb down the analysis and draw hard parallels on the "coming from Dubai and adding Lasix" angle, but
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"Shouldn't the pay out be between the $2279 for the 3 and $1108 for the 4?"
No, it should not.
The payout should be between half of $2279 (1140) and half of $1108 (556) because when you deadheat the pool gets either split in half or roughly diluted by half if all combined together (as it appears CD does on these wagers).
So the payout looks to be absolutely in line with w
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Do not discount the impact weather played on this decision. The next 2 weeks call for lots of rain and stormy conditions and could cause major impacts on work schedules for horses based there.
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RIP Bullards Alley, hind fracture during race
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Very interesting race, and important to keep an eye on the wind as well.
Seems like a decent place to play against a favorite, in Heart to Heart, who is spotting weight to several others who are just as fast as he is, not to mention the fact that he is now 7
Im going to key on 2 Ballagh Rocks here, who shows a nice figure over this course last fall and is inside of the favorite, plus gettin
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Man.....
29 (feels like 18) and at least another couple hours of light snow. Looks like I may fall short of my goal of a snowman on the infield, but suffice it to say we may never see conditions like this ever again for a Bluegrass.
FWIW, KEE website states turf racing is still to be decided and will be reassessed at noon. Main is muddy, and at these low temps, would be tough to dry out I
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