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Thoro-Graph
Just FYI, they are calling for 3-5 inches of snow Sat morning and temps wont climb out of the 30s at KEE. Will be very unusual conditions for the Bluegrass to be sure, and bound to be super muddy and heavy.
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TreadHead
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Stat should read "tom brady led NE team has never scored in 1Q of Super Bowl". And that is true
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TreadHead
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Pulpit worked 43+ at GP at some point that winter before the Fla Derby
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TreadHead
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When it comes to 3yr olds who participate in the classics and give large efforts, I assume by default that they are going to be burnt out and regressing by late summer, and usually can make nice scores playing against horses like Always Dreaming, who the public is still betting based on Derby hype.
To me, the key was the -2 late in the summer, which to me said Midway was actually much better t
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TreadHead
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contrary to popular belief, NOT related to MNR signal guru Mark Patterson, who is without a doubt one of the best in the business at the pre-race track feed shows.
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TreadHead
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Bal-aBali also won a stakes today off the negative CD rail race
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TreadHead
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Equibase allows a trainer search but unfortunately does not provide itemized results and lumps dirt and synth together in the query result. Guessing Brown does not run that many on synth since there are so few GradeA options.
Also does not allow a specific Grade 1 breakout but does let you filter on just graded stakes. Given those caveats:
2017:
Brown is 21-7-3-3 in graded dirt/synth stak
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TreadHead
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Jimbo,
I understand that the only way you can make yourself feel better at this point is to put names to your strawmen and try to beat on them, but for the third time, I have already agreed that the first half of Oaks card was speed favoring, and then suggested you should go back and actually watch the last 4 dirt races that day instead of using what happened earlier in the day to bias your opin
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TreadHead
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With the scratch of the 7, I get the "post time favorite" right? since I already used the PTF, I should get the next lowest odds in the 2, which means I win?
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TreadHead
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Thx for the tip, but I know how to evaluate track bias, and apparently all you know how to do is dumb down results to describe an entire day when the track was clearly different from one half to the next, and use the results of one race (the oaks) to describe what happened during the last 5 races of the card (which were not speed biased and had nothing to do with pace meltdowns).
Thanks again
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TreadHead
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Yes, the 48.1 pace in R9, 47 flat in R12 (at 6.5F) and 48.3 in R13 are certainly "suicidal". You definitely have me there.
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TreadHead
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Not sure how anyone can have that opinion on just a simple view of the data. Yes, every race early in the card was won on the lead. Then this happened:
R9 - won from dead last
R10 - Turf
R11 - won from dead last
R12 - won from dead last
R13 - 4th of 9 at first call, 3rd at the half
Any experienced TG user is familiar with the concept of changing track variants during the day, I don
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TreadHead
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My favorite part is 50ct tris but no50 ct supers.
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TreadHead
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Not sure what weather source you are using, but today is going to be tons more terrible than yesterday. Raining heavily right now, and could for several more hours from the looks of things, track is an absolute quagmire.
If you need a weather source, I highly suggest Stephanie Abrams on the Weather Channel weekday mornings.
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TreadHead
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Anyone who can work an MC Escher reference into a horse racing post deserves a Pulitzer.
This race destroys me every year, so this offer is greatly appreciated. Put me down for 1,3,7,8
*EDIT* I was always partial to "Relativity" by Escher
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TreadHead
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Interesting things are playing out that way given Assmussen is well on his way to Pletcher-like long-term Derby stats with his existing 13-0-1-1 record. For a much attention as Pletcher's Derby stats get, this fact seems lost on most people. And it isn't like he's had questionable stock.
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TreadHead
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There used to be a time on this board where we would say 4th race in 8 weeks off a new top is likely to be bounce inducing.
Now we are tagging them as the win bet apparently. My, how the times have changed!
The Pletcher horse will clearly try to steal this on the front. The only horse that can even remotely attempt to go with him is Stand and Cheer and he wants absolutely no part of a 46
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TreadHead
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Failed to mention.... 3 maiden claimers and 2 16k claimers make up 5 of the 6 races. Good luck with that
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TreadHead
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To me, that info is nothing but good news. To have the pk5 be a "jackpot" wager where 30% of the pool is set aside for a single winner makes that probably the worst value for your wagering dollar of anything at the track, including 30% Parx tri takeouts.
Those pool sizes mean that the pubic understands what an incredibly dumb wager that pk5 with a jackpot is and are pumping their mo
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TreadHead
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Track speed aside, I think the more important point is that the surface seems extremely fair so far to mid-pack and even some back closers. Don't have to be on the front to win.
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TreadHead
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This story makes my head explode. As (Im guessing) one of the few 40-something posters on this board, there is no hope in making this sport appealing to a younger generation if folks in charge are going to do dumb sht like this. What in the world?
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TreadHead
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Danzig Candy ran like a horse who was attempting 10F who is out of a Songandaprayer mare, who (according to BRIS) has an AverageWinningDistance as a damsire of exactly 6.0F. I don't think there is anything "cheap speed" about him, he's just a 7-8F horse, which his breeding suggests he should be.
EDIT - Also, I can't think of a single factor that people waste more time
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TreadHead
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Outstanding picture quality is worthless if they dont actually show the Fing races on TV
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TreadHead
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Just a quick note on conditions since I know many of you dont live in the midwest...
Winds are going to be sustained 30MPH and gusting to 50MPH, supposed to be out of the W,NW which would be pretty much directly in the face of backstretch and a tailwind in the homestretch. Expect some unexpected things to happen IMO
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TreadHead
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I did watch it, along with the next 2 dirt races that didn't even remotely suggest there was a rail problem.
Boscar, yes I agree if there is an established rail bias based on evidence from more than one race of reasonably talented horses that should have otherwise ran well and you see an MCL coming up, that you can expect those MCLs to be even more impacted by it.
The reverse of that,
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TreadHead
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I absolutely love it when people make bias conclusions based on the performance of bottom level maiden claimers. Welcome to the pools, gentlemen.
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TreadHead
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No, the bumping made no difference and the 2 best horses yesterday ended up in the exacta. It's apparent that International Star both loves FG and made some growth during his time off, which of course would be perfectly normal for a healthy 3 year old, but something was just not right with his first return race from the layoff and that new ability was completely hidden.
Again, the real h
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TreadHead
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Guess I'll take the contrarian view here, the anti-Eagle position is a bit of a head scratcher here, especially given the small field and odds you are going to get on the other horses.
Eagle looks about as solid a horse can on a sheet, improvement from 2 to 3 was solid, but not over done, and he paired up his last 3 races. Everything from his sire profile to the TG pattern predictor (whi
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TreadHead
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Is there any reason to believe that the other KEE days will have the same testing as the BC testing days? I'm asking because I don't know. I was always under the assumption that there are much stricter testing protocols for the BC days (which is ridiculous in itself, why not every day?). While I guess what you may be saying is KY in general is stricter than Parx on an average day, bu
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