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Thoro-Graph
FrankD. Wrote:
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> Ya can't tell the players without a TG score
> card.
>
> Bottom Row L-R Belmont 3, Uncle Bill, TGAB
>
> Back Row L-R Fairmount, Frank D, Sean D.
>
> There was a version with Michael D & Mathcapper as
> well included, well if you ever saw those guys you
> can't bla
by
Michael D.
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Thanks Michael. I only watched one day of Dmr this year and have no idea how the track played. Some dirt horses that needed it to fall apart a bit took money on Pacific Classic day and didn't run well (very small sample). We have the 3 Baffert horses in today, and I'm going to handicap the Dmr cards next w/e. Feel a bit lost as to which horses might have a surface edge, if any.
by
Michael D.
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how would you rate the general condition of the dirt surface for the meet?
10 for really quick, 1 for very heavy.
not a front-runner vs closer question, but fast vs slow.
by
Michael D.
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anybody have an extra clubhouse admission ticket for sale?
edit: all set folks. good people around here .....
by
Michael D.
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the Fri and Sat cards are revolting. two extra stakes from the wash-out last week, and this is the best they could do? the 5.5f races are literally making me sick.
Panza talks a great game, but this meet has been an utter disaster in terms of quality.
by
Michael D.
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jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Tough to fill Frank D's shoes with his seminar
> recaps, but will give it a shot.
>
> In the first race TGAB had a strong positive view
> on Roman Revival, but also felt the Pletcher
> dropdown Zamjara would be tough. When the only
> horse Roman Revival beat was the broke down
> Zamja
by
Michael D.
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nice try with the 6 horse there. good 9-1 shot. gets the best figure in the race, easily.
by
Michael D.
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they have SBN finishing in 6.40 and 6.52, a few lengths slower than Exag. the full 1/4 times look better.
either way, SBN is now 5 or 6-1 with Mike Smith up, in a race with little pace.
by
Michael D.
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ajkreider Wrote:
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> All deep closers gain some position because of
> horses slowing down in front of them, but SBN is
> running at the end of all his races. In a derby
> supposedly loaded with closers, SBN was much the
> quickest coming home.
>
> The winner got the last quarter in :25.7, and SBN
> made up
by
Michael D.
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pace should be a big factor in the Black Eyed Susan. the 2 favorites will benefit, but I'm going with the longer priced Dothraki Queen to run them down late. put up a nice number with a 12.4 final 1/8 in the BC, then caught a sloppy track vs a pretty good Carina Mia. last was a workout. good post and nice timing for a big top. will take some wiseguy money, but offers good value in the Preakn
by
Michael D.
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ajkreider Wrote:
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> I'm high on the Arky runners too, but there is
> something worrying.
>
> A quick scan through the archives says that since
> 2000, only two horses that had their last prep at
> Oaklawn moved forward figure-wise in the Derby:
> Nehro and Eight Belles. And the latter was in the
> fill
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
FrankD. Wrote:
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> Mo Tom and the 3 others stuck at 32 points are
> going to need Cupid to run 1st or 2nd to even make
> the derby barring mass defections of the top 17.
> If Cupid bounces to the moon and runs off the
> board there are several points scenarios where 4
> horses could go by the 32's?
>
> If
by
Michael D.
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the guy bashed himself on national tv after making the mistake.
piling on a guy who just bashed himself on national tv probably isn't the right thing to do.
by
Michael D.
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hey Frank. the Orange looked like a top 10 team for much of the year. wasn't a big surprise to me (tho a 2nd round game vs Mich St would have been very difficult).
yeah, Suddenbreak will have to get 2nd. I was thinking 25 points for 3rd, but it's only 20. Whitmore looks pretty safe, needing only 4th. where is Unbridled Cowboy coming from?
by
Michael D.
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horses taking a ton of money (1) - Nyq
horses taking serious money (6) - Gun R, Exagg, Brody, Mor Spirit, Destin, Cupid
horses taking some money (8) - Outwork, Mohay, Danzing, Shagaf, Mo Tom, Whit, Suddenbreak, Sam
15 horses will take at least some action. if they all stay sound, this will be the best betting Derby I have ever seen.
by
Michael D.
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give him the same weight and ground loss as Effinex/Imperative and he finishes in about 2:04.
by
Michael D.
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big18741 Wrote:
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> Danzing Candy looked good and might keep going.Big
> long striding horse.
>
> Bottom of his pedigree going back a few
> generations there is a lot of long distance grass
> breeding.
2nd dam is the dam of Better Talk Now, who raced for 15, maybe 20 years and won like 50 grade 1 routes, includin
by
Michael D.
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pedigree - good blend of speed & class on the dam side (3rd dam the 2nd dam of Stellar Wind). with that stride I wouldn't hold the Dixie Union against him. a touch short below while young sire Esky might be worth something on the board with his early crops, but I can't imagine there's a lot of value for or against when it comes to breeding.
12.17 final 1/8 yesterday so he li
by
Michael D.
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big18741 Wrote:
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> Michael
>
> Irad Ortiz on Keen ice if Honor Code goes in the
> Classic w/Javier.
given the jocks left, that's the best they could have hoped for. never like Javier off though.
by
Michael D.
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his final two 1/16s were 6.08 and 6.43 (6.43 from the 1/16 pole to the wire).
the race in question collapsed with most of the runners finishing in the 7.0 range.
the rush at the end probably wasn't as good as it looked.
that said, I notice the horse has more of a 6f pedigree. the experience and shorter trip should work in his favor.
by
Michael D.
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Ask the Experts
miff Wrote:
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> Liam's Map heading for the BC mile per TAP.
ouch.
LM picking up 8 or 9 lbs, Keen Ice losing 4. how many people know that KI is faster than LM at the BC weights? I'd say 90% of the money does not. and KI already has the big one going a mile and a quarter, while LM is untested at 10f.
now LM's in th
by
Michael D.
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big18741 Wrote:
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> Ring
>
> My strike rate is a lot worse than a broken
> clock.
> Strictly ball busting and by no means bragging.
> Half of that was for Miff(improving slug)anyway.
>
> Truth be told I'm shocked he won the Travers as
> washed out as he was prerace.
>
> Still,I think -3 with
by
Michael D.
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other forms of gambling is the problem, which means further consolidation is probably the answer.
tables are quietly popping up in many of the crap casinos that used to be restricted to slots (crap as in poor quality, not craps). one in upstate NY just gutted the bingo room to go Vegas style with dealers. the casino replaced a strip mall that used to host an OTB (and no, there are no proteste
by
Michael D.
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I think AP did about the same thing in the Derby, Belmont, and Travers. the Preakness was a bit slower due to the fast pace. the Haskell was better, his best race (9f is perfect). the Belmont was run over one of the quickest surfaces I have ever seen there & the adjusted pace was so slow that the race played nothing like a mile and a half race.
I'll be surprised if the horse runs in
by
Michael D.
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the one competitive figure was going 9f at the Spa. relevant, no?
by
Michael D.
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Jerry, they ran exactly the same distance. weight played a big role.
by
Michael D.
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Frosted is like Tonalist. the latter burned even more money when JR, the hottest jock around, took over from Rosario. too soon, too late, didn't use the whip, got checked, stepped on a rock, wasn't cranked. oh lord. enough.
don't bet either when they are giving weight and/or against a pace bias. I don't care who the jockey is, other horses are likely to get better trips.
by
Michael D.
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if those picnic tables are where I think they are, that spot will be worse than the front row at a Dead show.
the notion that handicappers want to get a good look at the horses they bet on is a foreign one I guess, at least to NYRA. they've now cut off more than 80% of the paddock viewing area (unless you want to camp out all day in an area as uncomfortable as anything on the east coast).
by
Michael D.
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