Show all posts by user
Thoro-Graph
Page 1 of 6
Pages: 12345
Results 1 — 30 of 172
Has a Derby winner ever had a 3-year-old top worse than this one?
MTB and Giacomo had 5s.
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
In your computation of "will pay odds" do you apply any adjustment for takeout differences?
Thanks.
Bob
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
I downloaded the TG pre-entry files but I wanted to know if anyone knows how to access the pre-entries in excel or comma delineated file.
Thanks.
Bob
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
I just had the same problem within the last 5 minutes.
Thanks.
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Interestingly the second place runner was 13.9 - 1. Same owner and trainer. In the post-race interview the owner said "I only bet Richard's Boy".
Maybe in the win pool but in the other pools he might have bet each of the two equally.
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Beach Patrol.
Sure was a tough beat last out.
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Not exactly.
That's close in an exacta box.
Number of exacta combinations in a 10 horse field = 10 * 9 = 90. A three horse box gets you 6 or 6.667%.
In a 20 horse field there are = 20 * 19 = 380 combinations and a six horse box gets you 30 or 7.9% of the combinations. The actual answer would be a 5 over 6 play for 25 combinations or 6.6%.
In a tri the numbers move more dramatic
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Interesting lines.
Only two runners at less than double digit odds. Since 2001 we have never had a KD with less than 3.
In 2010 when there were 3 less than 10 - 1 they consumed 28% of the pool. The above translates into 2 less than 10 - 1 with 28% of the pool also.
The race is also looking like 2010 a race where the winner had the 10th highest 3 year-old top of the field going in and the
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Just saw the fact that Blinkers on/off are 0 for the last 14 years at the Derby.
I have no idea about "shadow roll on" but would tend to think it would get similar results.
Anybody have any data on this?
Bob
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Based on the final figures, tough day for Team McLaughlin.
Four runners over two days; all were OFF.
Bob
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Looks like they get a full 1/4 mile to the turn, in a field of 14 anyone with any tactical speed should be able to get half way decent position.
Bob
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
From a site called gohorsebetting. They had 45 on the list; I culled it down and added Smooth Roller (winner AA on Saturday)
AP 8/5
Beholder 3/1
Honor Code 4/1
Keen Ice 8/1
Lea 10/1
Tonalist 10/1
Gleneagles 12/1
Liams Map 12/1
Frosted 14/1
Smooth Roller 20/1
Constitution 25/1
Wicked Strong 25/1
Coach Inge 50/1
Hard Aces
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Horses coming out of the KD are some of the best bet against in horse racing. Given the usual 20 starters less than half ever win another race in their career after the first Saturday in May.
From what was reported on this board and by their pre-Derby numbers to be an above average crop, in the 4 months since the 2015 KD the number of winners is 3. That's AP (triple crown winner), Mr Z an
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Here you go:
Year, Horse, odds, finish, ordinal rank in odds, field size, outran his rank (Y/N):
1990 Thirty Six Red, 3.7, 2, 2, 9, N/A
1992 Agincourt, 24.3, 7, 8, 11, Y
1994 Go for Gin, 1.5, 2, 2, 6, N/A
1995 Star Standard, 6.3, 2, 4, 11, Y
1996 Louis Quatorze, 6.1, 4, 4, 14, N/A
1999 Stephen Got Even, 9.3, 5, 4, 12, N
2001 AP Valentine, 5.9, 2, 3, 9, Y
2004 Birdstone, 36, 1, 7, 9 Y
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Unusual result for the KD.
4 tops (of 18) and only 3Xs (two, no doubt, quit running).
Even the Oaks had 3 tops and only 1X.
Anything to be made of that?
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Will you be providing a TG number for the Salutos Amigos for last week's race (Bold Ruler) that was run after we purchased our data?
Thanks,
Bob
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
He ran another great one today and looks to be at the top of his game. Tractable speed, grinding type doesn't depend on a burst down the lane.
What opinions are out there?
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Here's another angle on the Espinoza motive.
If he really pushes SB with a horse with no shot not only does he help BB but he and CC also might face a runner with a little less in the tank on November 1.
I don't think Chrome is a big contender but it sure would be nice if the favorite was short.
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
No doubt a great performance on Saturday.
As to the Classic, I think what is key is that the gelding has limited bottom (7 lifetime starts), is coming off a big top (I would guess a -2 TG), may not have liked the track (post-race trainer quote) and looked like one tired runner after the gallop out.
All that tells me that he will a prime bounce candidate on November 1, which is one thing he
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
It sure says something about the ability of the domestic crop of distance turf horses. European trainers will figure out which of their stock can run on firm CA turf and lasix and watch all the US based runners including POE.
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
25 days away from the Classic, it sure looks like Game On Dude will be strong favorite. I'd like to start a discussion by throwing out one I'm looking at now as a potential long shot and that's Bourbon Courage.Has anyone heard whether or his connections even intend to run (might also fit in the 2 turn mile at SA)?
This 3 year old came out sprinting this year at FG may have regre
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
This one stacks up to be nice betting opportunity. MV and The Lumber Guy will take $ but Le Bernarin, Big Screen and Summer Front all have the patterns and numbers that could allow them to move forward and get there.
I played Street Life in the Wood with some disappointment but the pace sets up for him and he may move forward at Belmont with the long stretch. So I will play LB on top with 5 u
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
So who is the new jock on UR because he looks like the current year's copy of Lookin At Lucky.
Ran wide to get beat after running the better number in the BC Juv (both favs), comes out in the first start as a three year old and runs a big race (LAL was a top; UR a pair), has an off race/tough trip in his last prep, has a disaster trip in the KD, the jock gets replaced and he runs to win
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Romans (and generally all Kentucky based trainers) had a pretty bad record at SAR last summer. I don't know why but I'd be a little careful before jumping in with both feet.
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Yes it was an outstanding ride but it was made a little easier for him by the fact that Bodie went so fast that the field spread out and IHA was able to take a spot on the inside relative to his post pretty quickly. In a normal bunched up Derby field he would have to either be stuck outside (4 path?) or drop way back to get inside or use him more to be in a more forward position on the field.
by
analizethis
-
Ask the Experts
Page 1 of 6
Pages: 12345