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Thoro-Graph
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These are taken from the probables after the race and rounded down to the nearest dollar. They are likely not exact, but pretty close.
1. 103
2. 1245
3. 50
4. 1023
5. 195
6. 81
7. 192
8. 135
9. 476
10. 72
11. 1069
12. 64
13. 402
14. 659
15. 159
16. 182
17. 1100
18. 1302
19. 618
21. 1946
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Nice P-Dub - Hope you (and our Warriors) run the table.
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For those multi-race wager fans there are four sequential P5 opportunities on both the Oaks and Derby cards, plus a new all stakes, all dirt P5 wager (Knicks Go - Pat Day Mile - Derby City Distaff - Churchill Downs - Derby) on Derby Day. Toss in the “throwback” to a $3 minimum P3 on Derby Day in a new $3 all stakes 3YO P3 (American Turf - Pat Day Mile - Kentucky Derby) along with the traditional
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I was watching the feed from Australia on Sunday night and saw this. In Race 2 at Gunnedah, the winner paid $636 to win. $34 bet to win out of $13,260 total in the win pool. Never have seen one that big personally.
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Totally agree about Early Voting. It seems like in the past few years, the horses that drop out of contention in the last month prior to the Derby have speed. Would love to seem him in the Pat Day Mile as well, but if Chad skips the Derby, he is likely running in the Preakness, hoping for a Cloud Computing type of repeat isn't he?
Not a huge fan of Morello at 10f, but he had no shot in t
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Yeah, that first article from DRF cited the 5-0-0-0 stat - but with Leonatus it is 6-1-0-0... of course that was 139 years ago.
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Five horses have run in the Derby with less than three starts - record is 5-0-0-0.
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Apparently Kee paid out the wrong order in race 5 - they paid 3-8-9-10 and it should have been 3-9-8-10. Going to honor the original payouts and recalculate the new ones - I guess they eat the difference.
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Spokesman from CD said ALL unrestricted stakes earnings would count even those trained by Baffert.
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Thinking about the future pool this weekend? Because it closes prior to the preps this Saturday, one important aspect of that is how likely is your pick going to make the Derby field? You may want to take that into account when shopping for a price. I put together a handy chart to help determine what each selection needs to do to make the field - obviously staying healthy would be a component of
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The postponed Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 5 has been set. It runs from Thursday, April 7th, 12 PM ET until Saturday, April 9th, 2022 4:30 PM ET. I assume the 4:30 closing time is before any of the "big three" preps on Saturday. Here is the field.
1. Barber Road 30-1
2. Charge It 12-1
3. Crown Pride (JPN) 50-1
4. Cyberknife 12-1
5. Early Voting 20-1
6. Emmanuel 20-1
7. Epic
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I always understood those stats to be track specific as well.
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It was a much more interesting wager BEFORE the two races this weekend. Part of the reason they originally scheduled it the way it was is because of the uncertainty. I think it is a bit of a copout, but what it is consistent with what I expect from CDI.
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He's only got 10 points and the problem is that there are five big preps still to go worth 100-40-20-10 points each. He is not going in any of them unless they run him back in two weeks next Saturday. The Lexington gives him three weeks but is worth only 20 points if he wins and even then, 30 points is likely not going to do it, even as horses inevitably fall off the map. Maybe he will be a
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DRF reporting that four of Baffert’s Kentucky Derby prospects have been moved to different trainers in advance of upcoming stakes, with the hope they can earn enough points to run in the Derby.
Doppelganger, McLaren Vale, and Messier are going to Tim Yakteen, while Blackadder is going to Rodolphe Brisset
https://www.drf.com/news/messier-three-others-kentucky-derby-prospects-moved-bafferts
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Epicenter will be tough to rundown on Saturday but horses with Rattle N Roll’s running style already are at a disadvantage at GP. It's tough to come off the pace more than a couple lengths and win there, even going two turns. Of the last 70 two turn dirt races at GP, 78% were won by horses within two lengths of the lead after half mile pole - the other 22% were won by horses between two leng
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Nice call by Vic on the winner in the 5th at SA - $6.80 was a bit less than he was hoping for, but he had confidence in that horse.
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FYI - Maybe is on my end, but I received the following message on my end and was not able to play the video directly from the internet:
"The media could not be loaded, either because the server or network failed or because the format is not supported."
It downloaded fine and I was able to play it on my computer.
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I could not verify this, but someone told me that they are only offered on 1/ST or whatever XPressbet is called these days - not sure if that is true. I also saw that on 1/ST you can opt in for a rebate of up to $10 on each of those two bets.
I do know that they are $1 minimums as they are modeled after the Stronach P5.
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I'm assuming if you were already enrolled, you still continue without having to re-sign - correct?
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Agreed - route races run on the dirt strongly favor horses that are close to the lead as over 75% are were on the lead or within two lengths at the half mile pole. Turf favors horses close to the lead as over 60% were on the lead or within two lengths at the half mile pole. The bulk of remaining winners come from that 2-6 length area - it is tough win at GP routing at GP when you are more than 6
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The Tapeta surface at GP has given me some problems as it seems like you need a completely different set of handicapping tools to get to the winners. Of the last 100+ route races over the Tapeta surface just 13% were wire to wire. Contrast that with the main track where you have more than twice as many on the lead winners (35%) and over 3/4 of the winners came from horses that were on the lead or
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I know Vic said something to the effect that he believed “numbers travel” when he was analyzing GP 8 in the TGPS seminar today, but it seems way too many times that CA grass horses venturing anywhere east have trouble replicating their numbers. I am not using despite the healthy figures.
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J. Ortiz taking over the reins on Stiletto Boy from what I hear.
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Sadler said his plan is to run him four more times this year - with an eye towards the Met Mile.
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According to Baffert's attorney via TDN Medina Spirit Split Sample Shows Betamethasone Positive Was from Ointment
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/baffert-attorney-tests-on-medina-spirit-split-sample-show-betamethasone-positive-was-from-ointment/
This one from DRF is a bit better...
https://www.drf.com/news/baffert-attorney-claims-medina-spirit-test-consistent-skin-ointment
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One thing that I noticed this time around from yesterday and so far today is that the public (or whoever) is hammering the favorites – they are getting bet pretty hard. With that in mind, here is my estimate of who will be the favorite, morning line odds and my estimate of their final odds:
Gamine 3/5 – 2/5
Lieutenant Dan 6 – 7/2
Life Is Good 4/5 – 1/2
War Like Goddess 7/2 – 5/2
Jackie
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