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Thoro-Graph
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Collmus should have been fired a decade ago. I realize not everyone can be Tom Durkin, but someone even like Kurt Becker does 10x the job he does. Makes me sad that Luke Krytbosch was struck down so young, he for sure would still be doing it today and doing a fantastic job.
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TreadHead
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I believe he's referring to Giacomo and MTBird, who both finished 3rd in the preak. Both those horses won at improbable odds due to a pace melt down, so there are plenty of parallels here.
Certainly agree that Rich Strike does not have to bounce, but he is highly unlikely to get the pace setup and trip that led to his Derby win again. Will be surprised if he wins another G1, won't
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TreadHead
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Used him in multis but the Derby result killed them all. Tough game
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TreadHead
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Hard to ignore anything Walsh is running on turf these days, he's had several recent winners. Also wondering about the turf rail, as there seem to have been several runners last two days really closing out wide on the crown of the course.
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TreadHead
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Looks perfect there LOL. Weather forecasters are right less often than handicappers
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TreadHead
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It seems to me that sometime in the last 5 years the exact same thing happened, it rained all day Friday and they got over an inch of rain. I cannot remember if they took anything off the turf Friday or not.
Friday's impact seems clear, all dirt races full slop and any turf racing, should it occur, will be a soggy crap shoot.
Saturday much tougher to figure out. If it stops raining p
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TreadHead
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FWIW it looks like KY adopted similar shoe rules top NYRA, nothing more than a 1/4 turndown allowed in the rear and just a couple mm on the front shoe grab. Basically nullifies the need for shoe information, which is good, but to TGJBs point, makes it much more important to understand how feet will react to it, which is bad because that info is never provided to most players.
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TreadHead
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Yep, basically rain all day Friday, not stopping till early Sat, and little to no sun on Saturday. They might get the dirt dried out by derby time, but definitely expect the turf will still be aberrant after that much rain, and early dirt card likely to be tricky on a drying out track. As if the card wasn't hard enough already.
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TreadHead
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Looks like over an inch of rain is scheduled starting Thurs night, all day Fri, and into Sat early morning. Par for the course with Derbies lately, can't catch a break.
Reminder that the turf course was completely re-done last year. visually it appears to be more elevated, like they put some formal drainage structure under it. But even that may not prevent it from becoming aberrant afte
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TreadHead
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This is largely entertainment as opposed to current information, but Rich started at Hollywood in the 60s and was a track super out there for a long time. He's 84 now. Tells some great stories here. I use Spotify but the same podcast should be available on itunes too.
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TreadHead
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Not sure why more consideration isn't being given to the stretchout, especially on a damp track. Dont want Cloudy Dawn's breeding for 9F where a large new top is needed.
This race comes up complete chalk for me with 3 and 4, with 8 and 10 being the only reasonable longshots IMO.
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TreadHead
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Not sure what race you were watching, there is no 7 seconds, the clip happens as HRC is still veering in. Head on is at the end of the video on this page.
#
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TreadHead
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One has to wonder if crops were allowed if Prat could/would have ridden differently and been able to control his horse better.
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TreadHead
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Peter Miller is no longer just a So Cal trainer. He's been running multiple horses at OP and CD all spring, among others.
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TreadHead
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Funny you mentioned that, I was wondering what the pre-race prop on Baffert, Cox, Pletcher, Brown being out of the top 5 in the BES yesterday would have been. Im not sure even Mathcapper could have calculated those odds.
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TreadHead
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I wouldn't read much into Baffert's BES horse not running well. One of the dangers of being dogmatic about TG numbers and patterns is that you might be ignoring incorporating horse flesh evaluation, which could be a big piece of the story about what figure the horse might run today. I heard any number of analysts on podcasts this week talking about how small and short-legged Beautiful
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TreadHead
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TGJB, the line of discussion you are taking here makes sense if Baffert says he gave the horse the drug weeks ago and there's only a trace amt left (going to put aside the performance enhancing question for now).
But unless I've missed something, he's flat out saying he never gave the horse the drug at all.
That leaves only 3 possibilities:
1) He knew about an arrangement
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TreadHead
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GL Sekrah, good to see you back.
King Fury will be on my tickets for sure.
Also curious to see if Ivar can run the same figs at 9F
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TreadHead
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Dirt, no way
Turf, I will hear arguments about. Horses that cleared off seemed to be trying to avoid it, even early on in the races. Somewhat common to have a bad rail there after a lot of rain (has happened a couple recent derby days, pretty sure). But it will be drier tomorrow.
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TreadHead
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I keep seeing this talking point brought up every year, I know some people assert that a horse that has won all his races carrying 118-120 are "negatively impacted" when they have to carry 126 lbs (though mathematically this doesn't make much sense) and others would assert that the added weight doesn't have a negative impact on ability (other than the TG computed relative weig
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TreadHead
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Been on this soap box for nearly 15 years (and catch grief on it regularly), but hoof size is a physical piece of data that should be provided on every starter and available to handicappers, in the same way that weight should be.
People are welcome to laugh, but there was a former trainer (can't even remember his name now) who had a brief posting career on twitter and wrote articles for B
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TreadHead
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With some data built up now on horse weight in California, was just wondering if anyone with access to the entire data set has been able to pick up any discernible impact factors (good or bad) relative to a certain amt of weight being gained or lost. And possibly needing to be correlated to distance/surface? (in certain route conditions, getting more "into shape" might actually be a g
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TreadHead
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Does anyone have insight on these turf measurements?
What is the normal range of a "Going Stick"?
Is it normal for a turf course to have nearly 2X the dirt moisture?
Rail up: 20' Keeneland Course
Grass Height: 4.00" - mowed at 4.00" today after training
Current Average Moisture - 36.1%
Going Stick Average Penetration - 7.90
Average Shear - 6.55
Index - 7.45
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TreadHead
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This is interesting, KEE is now posting very detailed information about their track conditions (granted it is at a point in time during the morning, and as we all know, this will change during the day). Down to, and including %of moisture
How great would it be if they ultimately gave us a reading at each post time. One can only dream.
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TreadHead
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In a similar vein.....
The 9 in the last at GP today (R10 on 5/10) caught my attention for the precipitous performance drop in the 2 races after moving out of Navarro's barn post-bust.
I'm guessing there are other examples, some of the easiest bet-against propositions out there.
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TreadHead
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Making physical contact while veering out is flagrant, that's absolute non-sense to argue otherwise. You won't find a majority of people who agree with your statement there.
1 and 18 were not going to win the race, that much is true, but stating they weren't cost better placings by the incident as a fact is just downright laughable.
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TreadHead
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This entire discussion is a view into why we are in such turmoil as a country right now, armies of ill-informed people walking around with false thoughts in their heads they are convinced are the truth.
We've got people on this board saying that some guy who writes stuff down on a chart or is doing live reporting for TV is a more authoritative source on how many people claimed foul than t
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TreadHead
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Turf rail is definitely dead, Jocks are avoiding it like the plague
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TreadHead
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Sorry, must have been channeling the ghost of Jimbo without realizing it.
Next time I'll use "extremely ill-informed opinion not based on reality and you would probably do well to not take any advice from the person/people saying it" in order to be polite. That doesn't roll off the tongue quite as easy though.
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TreadHead
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