Show all posts by user
Thoro-Graph
Jim,
Agreed, some similarities. Brown had 24 days after the FL Derby and then 35 days into the Derby. He won easily in Preakness in -1.
AP had 28 days to the ARK Derby and then only 21 days into the Derby.
I see Brown's trip in the Derby was 5w4w, but in the smaller field at Pimlico he had a 1w3w trip.
AP came out of the Derby with a 4w4w trip.
Probably have to assume he'll have
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
The reason I started up this path was due to the high number (5) horses that entered the Derby with negative numbers. No big negative numbers, but -2,-0,-2,-1,-2. That's the most horses with negative pre-Derby numbers over the last 10 years.
From 2005-2009 the numbers of negative horses entered in Derby were, 4,4,3,4,3.
From the 2010-2014 drop-off in negative horses entered was 1,1
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Sorry to add an addendum to my own post.
The number of horses entering the Derby and the Preakness with previous negative numbers have shrunk substantially over the last 5 years compared to the previous 5 year period.
From 2010 to 2014 there were a total of 9 Derby entrants and only 6 Preakness entrants with a previous negative number.
From 2005 to 2009 there were a total of 18 Derby entra
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
I find it very interesting the last 5 Preakness winners had NO negative numbers in their career prior to winning the Preakness. All these last 5 winners ran a winning Preakness number of 0 or higher, but none ran a negative number in winning the Preakness. For the last 5 years, the Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner(s) have had ZERO negative career numbers.
I also find it interesting that in th
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Frank,
You recollection is very good. The photo took 6 minutes officially. The Coaching Club was her last career win. She had a couple in the money finishes but nothing in a subsequent stakes race.
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Isn't it just as important to have Commanding Curve as a really live horse at large odds like last year? That horse made everyone's ticket worthwhile behind Chrome.
I know giving stuff away isn't always the best business model, but speaking for myself I always felt that 10% of something was a helluva lot better than 100% of nothing.
As a guy who gladly purchases the seminar, I w
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
I'm a guy who buys the seminar every year. Honestly, IF Rags had a track history of being equal or superior on the big days, I would not let another
$ 15.00 - 25.00 stop me from buying both. I'm assuming anyone who plays horses year around is planning on spending a larger portion of their bankroll than they would on a typical Saturday, so that little extra money is a small price to p
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
JB, the sad thing about that movie was when we sat down later for Thanksgiving dinner, my Mom couldn't even look at the apple pie my wife baked. Funny now.
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
I'm flashing back to Thanksgiving about 5 years ago when the grandkids tossed in "American Pie" and my 87 year old Mom was watching with us. Talk about a guy getting uncomfortable in that pie scene.
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Richie,
I think TGJB put the kibosh on this subject, but I owe you a response, and then if you'd like to discuss further we can do so in a person to person so as not to bore the members or encourage another comment from TGJB.
A 3 day excursion into a little island with less total population than Syracuse, New York with a "naval fleet" of less than 10 fishing trawlers doesn'
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Haven't watched the action on AP yet, but I remember in the Louisiana Derby when Mena got after International Star 30 times in the stretch. He beat that horses ass with the stick.
I might look at a few of AP's early races, see if he ever got introduced to the stick for anything more than a token reminder.
I know when Rachel got pounded by Borel in the Preakness, he said she didn
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Materiality wasn't a complete illusion into that slow last quarter. At the 1 Mile mark, he was back 14 lengths and was beaten at the wire by 7 1/2 lengths so there was a 6 1/2 length gain on the leader. I think Materiality got the last quarter in about 25.4, not flying, but not an illusion either.
Even Keen Ice, who was behind a total wall of horses with no place to go, and eventually ju
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Frank,
I call TAP the energy vampire. He fires up the troops all the way through the preps, makes all other good 3 year olds run their eyeballs out in order to collect enough points to make it to the Big Dance.
I looked at 3 of the major prep races and how the horses that emerged had performed in the Derby, and its pretty dismal.
From 2011 through yesterday, only a small 5 year sample, but it
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
I can't help but think if Materiality got out clean like he usually does then AP might have enjoyed a 4w4w trip.
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
miff,
Off topic, but would you say Materiality went back 4 or 5 pts today?
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Thought Materiality ran very well despite missing the break.
Bolo from Cali poor, but race ruled by 1-2-3 finish of California horses.
Carpe major disappointment.
Frosted ran well and looks like a major player.
Not much to say about the others.
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Yeah, but I heard the former Bruce Jenner is slated for 2016 in her blue dress.
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Did anybody get Sarah Hyland's (Modern Family) selection for the race? Its reported she finally figured out which end eats and which end kicks.
I love Johnny Weir's outfit, but I'm ordering mine with bigger buttons, and matching ass chaps. The hat is okay, but not nearly gaudy enough for this 61 year old.
Why does every year have to be so frigging weird? I had to leave my
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
My primary focus would not include Materiality in one of the components. He had good rest between his 3 year old debut and his 2nd effort (54 days) without running a negative figure either out. The issue that could rise up is the short rest of 22 days prior to the Florida Derby and how much it really took out of him. He's coming into this race with 35 days, so I've included him in a ha
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Dunkirk off last prep of -0 to Derby of 6
Circular Quay ran well -1 to Derby of -0
Keyed Entry off last prep of -2 to Derby of 17
Bandini ran last prep of -3 to Derby of 17
All I have so far, incomplete on this component.
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
toppled,
I haven't got that far yet, but its a component of the whole project.
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
I'm halfway done with a project focusing on horses that run negative #'s in their 1st or 2nd start of their 3 year old campaign. I had this concept project on my "to do" list and now I'm partially done and am kicking myself, the race is upon me and this still needs some time/work before I could draw any meaningful conclusion.
Let me preface what I type here by admitting
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Paul,
I see your fans on the other board have elevated you to "troll." Is that better or worse than them referring to TGJB as 'PUTZ?"
Hope things are well Paul.
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
What time do the other guys have their seminar for all to see?
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts
Jim,
Great, honest comments once again. One of the really intriguing things about this or any Derby is the hand-wringing leading up to the draw, and then the elation or misery when a key horse is impacted negatively.
With me, ignorance is bliss. I watch the start of the Derby every year, and this year will likely follow the same pattern.
The connections are giving instructions to the riders.
by
smalltimer
-
Ask the Experts