Based on his 2yo foundation & the TGI for Pioneerof the Nile from 2 to 3, I always thought AP was going to run a big negative # in the Derby, so I don't consider his effort a knockout number.
So, what if a -3 or something close to that is normal for this horse when he is sound? You look at some horses and they run off strings of negative numbers when a lot of people are anticipating a bounce (even though he's a sprinter & it may no be a good comparison, look at Palace's sheet). Not many people around here are thinking Upstart is done with all his negative numbers and are looking at a rebound somewhere in the future. Even though he X'd in the Derby, Upstart is a good example of a horse who can keep throwing negative numbers at us as a 3YO.
I think if the AP knockers took a step back & realized how good he is, they'd back off trying to beat him in the Preakness. Baffert's Derby winners have yet to lose a Preakness. I agree the time to beat him is in the Belmont, although emotionally it will be tough betting against him because this is a special horse to me, one of the few horses I've been right about every step of the way & it would be next to impossible for me to root against him in the Belmont if he gets that far.