T Sev,
I have to say, I love your style
Would be cool if you didn't ALWAYS automatically disagree with everything I post but hey, that's what makes a market!
I think I know who you were referring to in that little diatribe and if it's who I think it is, then that's honestly one of the most amusing things in the history of this board
Relative to the horse,
I use the numbers to tell me how brilliant a horse is and the fact that this horse just ran the second faster Derby in history tells me you are selling him short in terms of how good he is.
Four horses in this Derby ran figures/races that would have won last year's Derby and sure Big Brown won off like a locomotive in his Derby but he didn't have 2 other negative figure horses chasing him in that race like AP did in this race.
He could certainly lose the Preakness but I think it's much more likely that he will lose the Belmont.
He could bounce three points and likely still win the Preakness, just like BB did.
That would be a pretty awful pattern for the Belmont and that's where I would take my stand
However, what if this horse pairs his 3 neg in the Preakness and then goes into the Belmont with paired tops and never having gone backward.
I will still play against him in the Belmont but not to anywhere near the same extent as I would if he wins the Preakness while going backwards