T,
I'm on board with that way of thinking. My point in the 4 preps was the others in the sample with 4 preps did very poorly. Didn't mean Upstart would. I would have been very happy had he brought his A game, cause I played him.
The two horses in the sample with 4 preps prior to the Derby were Verrazano and Keyed Entry. No question, most serious handicappers gave Verrazano no chance at 8/1 and no 2 year old starts. Keyed Entry had went backwards for 2 straight races after the negative and heading into the Derby going the wrong direction, it was no surprise he went off at almost 30/1.
Upstart had differences from both of those horses, and it was night and day. He was moving into the right direction headed for the Derby, had the strong 2 year old foundation, and was 20/1. There was stuff to like.
What happened, only a few people know. I've been told by the man himself I don't know what I'm talking about with Upstart and I accept that. I consider his Derby a non-effort for whatever the reason(s) were.
The reason I stated that I didn't like Upstart was the 4 preps prior to the Derby, I only had 2 horses that didn't have a snowballs chance in their Derby, now I had a horse that had the numbers, foundation, etc, but I went with the idea that there might be something about the 4 preps. It was a guess on my part and I wouldn't have minded being wrong, especially at 20/1.
Thanks man, enjoy your take on things. (I really need to put this thing to bed).
