Mr. C,
Now that the Derby is over, I was able to put the similarities between Brown and AP to see the likelihood of AP winning in Baltimore.
Brown had the 2 year old turf out under Patrick Reynolds then was turned over to Tricky. A 182 day layoff began prior to his 3 year old campaign.
AP came off his 2 year old campaign with a 197 day layoff prior to his 3 year old campaign.
Both horses had 2 outs prior to winning the Derby with Brown roughly 2 pts better than AP in each of their first 2 outs.
Brown move 2 pts forward in the Derby while unchallenged, and AP moved 2 pts forward with a major challenge.
If AP came out of the Derby putting the weight back on, moves well on the track, no reason he doesn't have a chance to win at Baltimore. Disclaimer: I will be trying to beat him on a small scale.
I suggested in my May 2, 2015 post "Odds on Upstart" about my quandary with AP and Upstart and suggested I would learn something after they ran the race.
What I learned is a 3 year old Derby entrant that runs a negative number in either of his first two starts of the campaign, and has 3 or more prep races prior to the Derby likely run up the track. To the tune of 0 for 11.
9 of the 11 earned their first negative number in a race 1 1/16 or shorter.
Looking forward to getting my behind kicked next May if this doesn't play out. LOL
